Week 15: Tomlin, Steelers come up aces; Bucs' D gashed again

Updated: December 14, 2008

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There was plenty of late-game drama, and controversy, in the Steelers-Ravens AFC North showdown. Santonio Holmes caught a 4-yard pass from Ben Roethlisberger with 43 seconds left, and just barely got the ball over the goal line, to give Pittsburgh a 13-9 victory and the division title. ZOOM GALLERY

Week 15 analysis: Coaches roll the dice

Sunday was a day for some high-stakes poker in the NFL. One coach came up a big winner. Three others gambled and lost, and the results could be costly for two of them.

Mike Tomlin

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Mike Tomlin's aggressiveness paid off for the Steelers, who clinched the AFC North title.

• In making the boldest call of the day, Mike Tomlin was a major winner. Trailing 9-6, the Steelers had third-and-goal at the Ravens' 4 with 50 seconds left. Tomlin wasn't thinking field goal. He wanted to win, and he showed some guts by calling for a risky pass. Ben Roethlisberger, who had engineered a remarkable drive starting at the Steelers' 8 with 3:36 left, scrambled before hitting Santonio Holmes for the winning touchdown. The victory locked up the AFC North title for the Steelers (11-3).

• The strangest call of the day came in final two minutes of the Titans' 13-12 loss to the Texans. Kerry Collins marched the Titans from their 17 to the Texans' 32 with slightly under two minutes left. Kicker Rob Bironas, who has 60-yard range and was 4-for-4 on field goals for the day, could have made the 50-yard attempt, but Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher thought because he was going into the wind, it would have been more like a 55-yarder. In a move that ended up costing the Titans the game, Fisher gambled and went for it on fourth-and-3, but Collins missed wide receiver Justin McCareins in the flat. Even worse than the loss, the Titans later found out that defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth suffered a knee injury, the extent of which is not known.

•  In the most bizarre play of the day, the Bills and coach Dick Jauron conjured up memories of the Miracle at the Meadowlands, the infamous fumble by Giants QB Joe Pisarcik in 1978 that handed the Eagles an unlikely victory. The Bills' fourth-quarter meltdown included three turnovers by quarterback J.P. Losman -- two interceptions and a fumble on a pass play with Buffalo leading 27-24 with 2:06 left. What the Bills were doing passing in that situation is unclear. The loss further complicates a bad PR situation for the Bills. According to sources, Jauron quietly signed a three-year extension a couple of months ago. But the team has lost eight of its past 10, and Jauron could be on the hot seat.

• In Kansas City, the Chiefs simply folded when they had a winning hand. Kansas City had a 21-10 lead with 73 seconds left but ended up losing to the Chargers 22-21. San Diego recovered an onside kick that slipped through the hands of Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe with just over a minute left, setting up the Chargers' winning drive. This result puts Kansas City coach Herm Edwards squarely on the hot seat.

Five things I learned in Week 15

1. Bucs' D falling apart?
A year ago, Bucs coach Jon Gruden took a lot of criticism for resting his starters in the final two regular-season games after clinching the NFC South. A potential 11-5 season turned into a 9-7 finish, and the Bucs lost to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs. Well, Gruden isn't resting anybody this season, but his defense is running out of gas. For weeks, there has been talk of popular defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin leaving to join his son, Lane, at the University of Tennessee. Apparently, the rumors have had an effect on Tampa Bay's run defense, which has been invisible in the past two games.

Falcons back Michael Turner rushed for 152 yards on 32 carries in a 13-10 victory over the Bucs on Sunday. After halftime, Turner had 103 yards on 18 carries. Six days earlier, on "Monday Night Football," the Panthers rushed for 299 yards against the Bucs. Coaching isn't the problem here. Like most Cover 2-style defenses, the Bucs are light along the defensive line. It didn't help matters Sunday that defensive tackle Chris Hovan was inactive and defensive tackle Jovan Haye was limited, both due to knee injuries.

The Bucs gave up 175 rushing yards, and after the game, Kiffin confirmed he's leaving for Tennessee after the season. The Bucs played hard, but they lost to a young Falcons team that has grown up before its time. Instead of trying to catch the Panthers for the NFC South lead, the Bucs are in a dogfight for a wild-card spot. The good news for the Bucs is they close against the Chargers and Raiders at home.

Meanwhile, Gruden made a curious decision to go with QB Brian Griese even though Luke McCown has been the backup for more than a month and took a majority of the first-team snaps in Jeff Garcia's absence this week.

2. AFC gains upper hand
Will the NFC ever win the regular-season interconference series with the AFC? The AFC went 4-1 against the NFC on Sunday and took a 29-27-1 lead over the NFC with seven games remaining, including Monday night's Browns-Eagles matchup. The last time the NFC claimed victory over the AFC was 1995, although there have been three seasons in that span that ended in a tie. With the NFC owning six of the seven top-scoring quarterbacks in the league, this figured to be the NFC's year. An AFC victory this year would be the most improbable because of the decline of the AFC West, which is 3-11 in interconference games.

The AFC had a few advantages Sunday because the Colts played the winless Lions and the Dolphins hosted San Francisco. The surprise was the Bengals' 20-13 victory over the Redskins, but in many ways the Bengals actually started the AFC's turnaround with a 13-13 tie against the Eagles on Nov. 16. Since then, the AFC hasn't had a losing week against the NFC. Still, there is hope for the NFC. The Bucs will be favored in home games against the Chargers and Raiders in the final two weeks, and the Ravens visit the Cowboys on Saturday night. But the AFC could make up ground with Jets-Seahawks and Cardinals-Patriots matchups in Week 16. It all could come down to the Bears' visit to Houston in Week 17.

3. AFC East logjam
Barring an upset, the AFC East should have three teams at 10-5 entering the final week of the season. The Jets host Miami in Week 17, giving Chad Pennington a chance to get his revenge. What's scary for the Jets is how vulnerable they look. The glaring problem is the Jets' run defense. On Sunday, the Bills' Marshawn Lynch had 127 yards on 21 carries, and Fred Jackson had 31 on seven carries. It's possible defensive tackle Kris Jenkins, the anchor of New York's defensive line, might be wearing down. Coach Eric Mangini's defense had to scrap to make enough big plays to salvage a 31-27 victory.

Mangini is struggling to find answers to a lot of problems. The Jets' offense relied mostly on short passes, only occasionally trying to get a downfield toss to speedy David Clowney or Laveranues Coles. After suffering West Coast losses to the Chargers, Raiders and 49ers, the Jets are leaving Saturday instead of Friday for their Week 16 game at Seattle. The Dolphins travel to Kansas City in Week 16 after squeaking out a 14-9 victory over the 49ers. The Patriots blew out the Raiders 49-26, and return home to face the Cardinals. Figuring Kurt Warner might commit a few turnovers in the New England chill, the Patriots should win that game. It sets up a great Week 17. The Patriots still have troubles with tiebreakers because of their five conference losses, so everything could be on the line when the Dolphins play the Jets in the Meadowlands.

4. Manning, Colts hitting stride
In case you haven't noticed, Peyton Manning is getting hot as the weather gets cold. In Sunday's 31-21 victory over the Lions, Manning completed 28 of 37 passes for 318 yards. Over the past four games, he's completed 75.3 percent of his passes. The Colts, meanwhile, have won seven in a row and appear to be heading toward the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. Slowly, Manning is gaining momentum in the MVP race, but he's competing against Kurt Warner, Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees and others.

There is an interesting dynamic working for Manning and the Colts that has slipped under the radar. Manning needed only nine offensive possessions to score 31 points against the Lions. If you are wondering why the Colts' offense isn't posting big numbers, it's because of Manning's efficiency. In 14 games, Manning has had a league-low 134 drives. He's converted 36 for touchdowns, meaning he's orchestrating a touchdown drive on one of every four possessions. He's sacrificing stats to keep his defense rested.

Manning is also doing a lot of his work without the running game. Joseph Addai was out Sunday because of a shoulder injury. Dominic Rhodes chipped in with 86 yards, but the Colts are among the worst rushing teams in football. Manning is tuning up his offense, getting it ready for the playoffs. Watch out.

5. Cards lose crowd
The Cardinals clinched the NFC West in Week 14. Nevertheless, the tailgating buzz among Cardinals fans was minimal Sunday, and there was a large, loud group of Vikings fans.

"I told [our players] before the game, 'Where do we play our best ball?' and they said home," Childress said. "I said, 'You see all those purple jerseys out there? It's going to be a home environment, we're going to make it a home environment.'"

The Vikings did, winning 35-14, while the Cardinals looked lost. Peterson ran over Arizona's defense for 165 yards. Chester Taylor averaged 6.6 yards a carry. Tarvaris Jackson had touchdown passes of 41, 6, 11 and 59 yards.

The Cardinals better learn how to handle their success as a playoff team, because if they don't, they won't be around long in the playoffs.

"We have to get better to be one of those teams that can go in and dominate games week in and week out," Warner said. "So it is a process and we haven't won the Super Bowl. We haven't been to that point yet, but we are making strides and we are growing. We have to get to the place where we can beat all these other teams that are playoff teams, and that's what we working toward."

Remember Kurt, the playoffs are just a couple of weeks away. The Cardinals still need to beat either the Patriots on the road or the Seahawks at home to get to 9-7. An 8-8 division winner isn't going to generate a lot of excitement in January.
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John Clayton's game balls

Johnson

• Offense: Unlike Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson, Andre Johnson of the Texans operates quietly. He doesn't talk as big a game as he plays, and in Sunday's 13-12 victory over the Titans, Johnson had one of most impressive days for a receiver this season.

Johnson caught 11 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown, and caught eight passes for 154 yards in the first half alone. In Johnson's eyes, this was redemption. In a 19-point loss to the Titans in Week 2, Johnson dropped two potential touchdown passes and ended up with only two catches for 29 yards. Johnson has 103 catches for 1,408 yards this season.

Abraham

• Defense: For months, Falcons defensive end John Abraham has been playing with injuries. Even when Abraham's healthy, the Falcons' coaching staff tries to protect his body by limiting his play in games. During Sunday's 13-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Falcons estimated Abraham played around half of the 67 defensive snaps , but he had three sacks and four quarterback hits.

This was Abraham's third three-sack game of the season, and he now has 15½ sacks on the year. The strategy of Falcons coach Mike Smith is to start Abraham but rotate him in and out of the lineup so he's effective in the fourth quarter. On Sunday, Abraham's fresh legs allowed him to sack Bucs QB Brian Griese for an 11-yard loss in the fourth quarter and a 13-yard loss in overtime.

Berrian

• Special teams: The Vikings didn't pay Bernard Berrian $7 million a year to return punts, but he's become an interesting option as the season has progressed. Charles Gordon, the Vikings' main returner, dislocated an ankle earlier in the season. Because the passing offense wasn't able to maximize Berrian's skills, Childress decided to occasionally utilize Berrian's speed and elusiveness on special teams. Less than four minutes into Sunday's 35-14 blowout of the Arizona Cardinals, Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown, giving the Vikings a 7-0 lead. Childress had stressed the importance of a good start for his team, knowing Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner could get into a rhythm with his passing attack. Berrian's return was just what Childress was looking for.

"I saw there was enough room," Berrian said. "I thought that the punter was going to push me out of bounds. I kind of slowed up to try to cut back. Then I realized there was another defender and I wasn't going to be able to cut back. But then he didn't really turn it up again after that. He just kind of let me go by him."

Less than five minutes later, Berrian cruised past Cardinals cornerback Roderick Hood for a 41-yard touchdown pass. Berrian was a true dual threat.

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Loose ends

• Infirmary report: Titans DT Albert Haynesworth injured his left knee against the Texans.

• Week 15 Studs & Duds: Michael Turner and John Abraham starred for the Falcons in a key victory over Tampa Bay. Bills QB J.P. Losman suffered a late-game meltdown against the Jets.

• Fantasy: The TRUM blog: You cannot be serious!

• Experts' picks: How did we do?
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Week 15 rundown

• Atlanta 13, Tampa Bay 10 (OT)
The Falcons' defense doesn't get a lot of credit, but it came up big Sunday, especially in overtime. Photos

• Cincinnati 20, Washington 13
Early in the season, the Redskins' Jim Zorn was a coach of the year candidate. Now you have to wonder if he's on the hot seat. Photos

•  Indianapolis 31, Detroit 21
The Lions have been competitive in many of their 14 losses. That will be little consolation to Detroit players if they make history by going 0-16. Photos

•  San Diego 22, Kansas City 21
A miracle win for the Chargers, but they shouldn't need miracles to beat teams like the Chiefs. Photos

•  Seattle 23, St. Louis 20
The Seahawks' late rally was perhaps a sign that they haven't quit on their outgoing head coach. Photos

•  Miami 14, San Francisco 9
The Dolphins have taken on the personality of efficient QB Chad Pennington. With just 10 turnovers this season, Miami has the fewest through 14 games in NFL history. Photos

•  N.Y. Jets 31, Buffalo 27
Miracle in the Meadowlands II? Shaun Ellis' fumble return for a TD won the game and might have saved the Jets' season. Photos

•  Jacksonville 20, Green Bay 16
If the Packers knew how to close out an opponent, there's a good chance they'd be 9-5, not 5-9. Photos

•  Houston 13, Tennessee 12
The Titans can afford a loss. They can't afford to lose DT Albert Haynesworth, who suffered a knee injury in the final minutes, for any significant period of time. Photos

•  Minnesota 35, Arizona 14
The playoff-bound Cardinals looked a lot like the old Cardinals, especially in the first half (28 points allowed). Photos

•  New England 49, Oakland 26
The Patriots learned a lot about the mental toughness of their QB. Only six days after the death of his father, Matt Cassel tossed a career-high four TD passes. Photos

• Carolina 30, Denver 10
The Panthers completed a perfect season at home and made their ailing owner proud. Is the best yet to come for this team? You can make a case that Carolina's the best team in football right now. Photos

Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 9
How do they keep doing it? The Steelers' ability to pull out close games should bode well for them come playoff time. Photos

• Dallas 20, N.Y. Giants 8
While all eyes were on the Cowboys' offense, their defense (most notably DeMarcus Ware) got Dallas' season back on track. Photos

• Monday Night Football: Philadelphia at Cleveland (ESPN, 8:30 ET)
The Eagles (7-5-1), struggling to make the playoffs, always seem to step on the gas in December. They better hope that pattern continues against the awful Browns. Matt Mosley | Watch

• Browns face prickly offseason | Preview
• EA Sim | Play animations | Intel Report
• Film room | Insider Scouts Inc. | MNF Surround

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Looking ahead

An early look at next weekend's biggest games:

• Baltimore (9-5) at Dallas (9-5): A Saturday night special. Can the Cowboys keep winning and keep the peace?

• Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2): An AFC Championship Game preview?

• Carolina (11-3) at N.Y. Giants (11-3): An NFC Championship Game preview?

• Week 16 schedule