Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide
Weekly Picks |
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| Ditka | Johnson | Carter | Mortensen | Jackson | |
| Denver @ Cleveland | Cleveland | Cleveland | Cleveland | Cleveland | Denver |
| New Orleans @ Atlanta | Atlanta | Atlanta | Atlanta | Atlanta | New Orleans |
| Tennessee @ Chicago | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee |
| Jacksonville @ Detroit | Detroit | Detroit | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | Jacksonville |
| Seattle @ Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami |
| Green Bay @ Minnesota | Green Bay | Minnesota | Green Bay | Green Bay | Green Bay |
| Buffalo @ New England | New England | New England | New England | New England | New England |
| St. Louis @ N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets |
| Baltimore @ Houston | Baltimore | Baltimore | Baltimore | Houston | Houston |
| Carolina @ Oakland | Carolina | Carolina | Carolina | Carolina | Carolina |
| Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Indianapolis |
| Kansas City @ San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | Philadelphia | N.Y. Giants | San Francisco @ Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona |
| Week 10 record | 10-4 | 11-3 | 11-3 | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Overall record | 88-56 | 89-55 | 89-55 | 93-51 | 94-50 |
| More picks: Our other experts' selections | SportsNation: Pick Week 10 games | |||||
Countdown Confidential
McNabb thinks his time is now: Donovan McNabb watched as one of his mentors and predecessors -- Ron Jaworski, old No. 7 for the Eagles -- won an Arena League championship last spring as president of the Philadelphia Soul.
McNabb watched as his two buddies -- Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies -- brought a World Series title to the City of Brotherly Love. Last Friday afternoon, the championship parade rolled raucously right past the Eagles' practice facility.
And, on Tuesday night, McNabb watched a fellow Chicago native son, Barack Obama, win the White House.
Howard Smith/US Presswire
Donovan McNabb has had a successful career, but he wants more.
You can tell by the tone of his voice and what he is saying these days that McNabb -- whom many thought would have won a Super Bowl title in Philly a long time ago -- is thinking it's his turn, now, to reach the mountaintop.
"The thing that I kind of think about now," said McNabb, now in his 10th year in Philadelphia, "what would be special, if we make it to the Super Bowl and win, and I get a phone call from [President] Barack Obama. That would be excellent."
First on the agenda -- beating the Giants. As if McNabb needed any more immediate reminders that he hasn't won a title yet, the defending Super Bowl champs are coming to town Sunday night. New York has beaten Philly five of the past six meetings. And the Eagles have lost seven straight prime-time games.
Indeed, if the Eagles have any aspirations of winning a Super Bowl title this season, they had better start winning in their own division. The Eagles are 0-2 in the NFC East the only team in the division not to win a division game this season.
The Eagles have scoffed at the notion that the Giants game is a must-win. That may be true. But this is also true: If the Eagles don't win a game in their division, they aren't going to the Super Bowl.
-- Sal Paolantonio
Backups have Titans, Bears confident: Bears backup-turned-starting quarterback Kyle Orton said he just might be able to play Sunday, ankle sprain and all. Starter-turned-backup Rex Grossman said he's preparing to be under center Sunday.
That means Titans coach Jeff Fisher has two quarterbacks to game plan for, although Fisher has a slight quarterback rotation himself this week -- the Titans' own backup-turned-starter Kerry Collins was limited at practice Wednesday, so their starter-turned-backup Vince Young "took two whole periods and was just great, did a great job," according to Fisher.
Of course, the Titans expect Collins to be fine in time for Sunday. The Bears are much less certain about Orton. But Lovie Smith said if it is Grossman who starts, there will be no wholesale changes to the offense.
"It's not like we're going to become a run-and-shoot team or go to the wishbone or something like that," Smith said. "We've won a lot of games with Rex leading our football team."It's just like the Titans did. They've gone to their backup quarterback, and look where they are."
-- Rachel Nichols
Colts trying to overcome inconsistencies: Since Tony Dungy's arrival in Indianapolis, the Colts have been a model of consistency.
Five consecutive division titles. Five straight seasons of at least 12 wins -- the first team ever to do that.
That history, and Dungy's steady style, make what's happening in Indianapolis this season so surprising. The Colts have won back-to-back games just once. One week they give up three points, only to cough up 34 the next.
Tom Hauck/Getty Images
Tony Dungy is 77-27 in his seven seasons as Colts head coach.
Believe it or not, the Colts' primary problem has been the offense. At the midpoint of the 2008 season, the Colts -- the high-powered Colts -- are averaging fewer points per game than Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami and San Francisco. They have the worst rushing offense in the league, and haven't had a running back top 100 yards in more than a year.
Despite all that -- the offense, the inconsistency, the frustration -- with a win Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, the Colts could find themselves in really good shape come January. That's because beginning next week Indianapolis plays six straight games against teams that are currently under .500.
The Colts have an opportunity. But how many inconsistent teams that can't run the ball put together winning streaks?
Or win in Pittsburgh?
-- Bob Holtzman
Week 10: Numbers Crunching
Packers at Vikings, 1 p.m.
The Packers' offense does its best work in the second quarter, where it's second in the league. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings' defense is also best just before halftime; they have the third-best second-quarter defense in the NFL.
Minnesota has the worst special teams in the NFL this year by leaps and bounds. Based on FO estimates, special teams have cost the Vikings 4.5 points per game compared to the average team. If the season were over now, the Vikings would have the second-lowest special-teams DVOA since 1995, the year our play-by-play database starts. Only the 2000 Bills had worse special teams.
• More Packers-Vikings: Intel Report | EA Sims
Bills at Patriots, 1 p.m.
Assigning the credit for the Bills' great fourth quarters to Trent Edwards seems ridiculous now -- the Bills' offense is only 24th in the league in the fourth quarter, while their defense ranks second in the final frame.
New England has the fewest penalties in the league (3.8 per game, including declined and offsetting). Buffalo ranks fourth in fewest penalties (5.3 per game, including declined and offsetting).
• More Bills-Patriots: Intel Report | EA Sims
Colts at Steelers, 4:15 p.m.
The only situation in which Indianapolis is the best offense in the league this year is on third and short; the Steelers have the fifth-best defense in the league in those situations.
Pittsburgh ranks first in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate on defense -- and last in the league in Adjusted Sack Rate on offense. (ASR explained here.)
• More Colts-Steelers: Intel Report | EA Sims
Eagles at Giants, 8:15 p.m.
For all the talk of how the Eagles are struggling in the red zone to get those short-yardage plays, they're actually 16th in the league at running in the red zone, and the Giants (who have Brandon Jacobs and no such articles being written about them) are 12th. That's not a significant difference.
Brian Westbrook is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, and has a history of good games against the Giants. But this year, Giants opponents have thrown only 15 percent of their passes to running backs, the lowest figure in the NFL.
• More Giants-Eagles: Intel Report | EA Sims
On This Week
- Tom Brady's season-ending knee injury in Week 1 caused an AFC East aftershock, leaving the division up for grabs at the midway point. Patriots, Bills, Jets or Dolphins -- who has the best chance to win the AFC East?
- Running backs Chris Johnson of the Titans and Matt Forte of the Bears talk about what it takes to break through the rookie wall.
- The EA Virtual Playbook has Tom Jackson previewing how the Eagles' defensive blitz packages could rattle Giants QB Eli Manning.
- Kenny Mayne was at Obama headquarters Tuesday for
a fantasy football free-agent draft? Tune into the "Mayne Event". Kenny will also be in-studio promoting "Mayne Street" -- his new ESPN.com show, which debuts Tuesday.
Video
Horton's Film Room Notes
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| Grossman |
Good and bad Grossman
It looks like QB Rex Grossman will be taking over for QB Kyle Orton during the next few weeks, even though Orton is lobbying to play. When you look at last week's film, it is easy to see that Grossman is still not consistent. His best pass is still the seam route over the middle, and at times he looked really good versus the Lions. He threw a couple nice balls into tight holes and showed good arm strength, solid mechanics and calmness in the pocket. However, at other times he looked frantic under pressure, played with no awareness and tried to force the ball.
Coaches are saying that Grossman has become a student of the game and that his preparation and ability to read the field have improved. But it remains to be seen how he will handle being the starter from kickoff to the final whistle. It also doesn't help that he faces the Titans this week. Clearly, this is not an ideal situation. The Titans will bring pressure with just four, keep seven defenders in coverage and force Grossman to make hurried throws all game.
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| Jenkins |
Dominant DT
Kris Jenkins has been the most dominant defensive tackle in the league, with the exception of Titans DT Albert Haynesworth. Jenkins is virtually unblockable, and his quickness is underrated. He has a ton of size and power, with the ability to play any style of defense. Jenkins plays hard on every down and controls the line of scrimmage. He has thrived in the Jets' two-gap, read-and-react scheme. He uses his arm extension to keep blockers off him, and when the back hits the hole, he slides off and makes the play. Jenkins also has a tremendous arm-over move that allows him to split double-teams, and he is an excellent finisher. Jenkins should be able to disrupt the Rams' offensive line and make QB Marc Bulger move in the pocket to avoid the pressure.
Chat Wrap
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| Lewis |
Kurt (Red Lake Falls, Minn.): Mort, what are the odds of Mike Brown firing Marvin Lewis? If they go 1-15, how could he bring him back? It just seems like Brown has taken the team away from Marvin (re-signing Henry and not trading Ocho Cinco). And who might they bring in?
Mort: Mike Brown is not inclined to fire coaches, but I would think he and Marvin would have a very serious conversation about whether it's wise to stay together. Who might they bring in? There will be plenty of candidates, but I really think it won't change unless they bring in a new front-office boss, a new GM. And in that case, maybe Marvin would want to stay on.
Dan (Chicago): Hey Mort, the Miami Dolphins look to me to be a team that has the ability to dominate games and possibly push themselves into playoff contention. What do you see as their biggest strength/biggest weakness that could keep them out?
Mort: They are physical and are fundamentally sound. They have a winning, experienced quarterback. Strong along both sides of the line. But they have to really work hard to get points. Dan Henning has done a phenomenal job as offensive coordinator -- and I'm not sure they have great cover people. But when you look at their schedule from here on out, it's easy to imagine a 9- or 10-win team.
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| Flacco |
Pete C (Newark, Del.): Mort, are you surprised with the performances from the two rookie head coaches with rookie signal-callers? Will we see more teams move in that direction instead of experienced counterparts?
Mort: You're speaking about Mike Smith and Matt Ryan in Atlanta and John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco in Baltimore. And yes, I'm surprised that they're having this much success early. I guess the Ravens, with their defense, had a chance to compete every week, but I didn't see it coming with the Falcons, even though I was a Mike Smith proponent. Both coaches have excellent staffs, really good coordinators (Mike Mularkey and Cam Cameron) to work with those young QBs. They had focused off-seasons and training camps. Oh, and they obviously didn't miss on those QBs.
Week 10 Roundtable
Based on matchups, who will deliver a big performance in Week 10?
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| Tomlinson |
Jeremy Green: Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson. It's so easy to pick on the Chiefs' run defense (last in the NFL, two 300-yard games allowed), so I'll pile on. The Chargers are coming off a bye and getting healthier on the offensive line, and Tomlinson appears ready to get back on track after turning in just his second 100-yard game of the season in Week 8. Expect a huge game from Tomlinson as the Chargers start their second-half march toward another AFC West title.
Keith Kidd: Cardinals QB Kurt Warner I could pick a matchup in the Panthers-Raiders game, but that's too easy. Instead, I'm going with Warner and the Cardinals' passing attack against the 49ers on Monday night. Warner has put up MVP numbers, and the emergence of rookie RB Tim Hightower and a real live running game will make Arizona's passing offense even more dangerous. You have to love the matchups WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston will get against that San Francisco secondary.
Did the Browns make the right decision naming Brady Quinn the starter?
Green: I think the Browns are doing it for the wrong reasons, but it is hard to argue the move. I would feel better about it if they were doing it because they thought he was ready, but they are doing it more because they feel like they will lose the fan base if they take the field with Derek Anderson as the starter. The Browns need a spark, and going with Quinn will ignite the crowd and could light a fire under the offense. However, if the receivers don't stop dropping passes and the offensive linemen don't pass block better, then Quinn will suffer the same fate as his predecessor.
Gary Horton: Yes, even though it looks like a knee-jerk reaction from the organization to appease the fans. It is odd to insert a new quarterback into the lineup when you have such a short work week, but Quinn faces a bad Denver pass defense. Anderson seemed to lack confidence, looked nervous in the pocket and made poor decisions at times. Quinn has a lot of poise and physical skills, but we shouldn't expect miracles. However, this team needs a jump-start, and this young quarterback will have the entire city behind him.










