Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide
Weekly Picks |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Ditka | Johnson | Carter | Mortensen | Jackson | |
| Oakland @ San Diego | Oakland | San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | San Diego |
| Jacksonville @ Chicago | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago | Chicago |
| Minnesota @ Detroit | Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota |
| Houston @ Green Bay | Green Bay | Green Bay | Green Bay | Green Bay | Green Bay |
| Cleveland @ Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee | Tennessee |
| Cincinnati @ Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Indianapolis |
| Atlanta @ New Orleans | Atlanta | Atlanta | Atlanta | New Orleans | New Orleans |
| Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants | N.Y. Giants |
| Kansas City @ Denver | Denver | Denver | Denver | Denver | Denver |
| Miami @ Buffalo | Miami | Miami | Miami | Buffalo | Miami |
| N.Y. Jets @ San Francisco | N.Y. Jets | San Francisco | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets | N.Y. Jets |
| New England @ Seattle | New England | New England | New England | New England | New England | St. Louis @ Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Arizona | Dallas @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Washington @ Baltimore | Baltimore | Baltimore | Baltimore | Baltimore | Baltimore | Tampa Bay @ Carolina | Tampa Bay | Carolina | Tampa Bay | Carolina | Tampa Bay |
| Week 14 record | 10-6 | 13-3 | 11-5 | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Overall record | 130-77-1 | 131-76-1 | 130-77-1 | 141-66-1 | 134-73-1 |
| More picks: Our other experts' selections | SportsNation: Pick Week 14 games | |||||
Countdown Confidential
Phillips taking huge risk in preparing for Steelers: In preparing for what might be the Cowboys' toughest challenge of the season, a cold-weather game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas coach Wade Phillips told 30-something starters Terrell Owens, offensive tackles Marc Colombo and Flozell Adams, linebacker Zach Thomas and outside linebacker Greg Ellis to go home and rest. Meanwhile, their teammates practiced for an opponent they have not played since 2004.
That means three of the players most responsible for protecting quarterback Tony Romo from the fiercest pass rush in the league were not on the practice field -- running back Marion Barber and both offensive tackles. Barber is recovering from a dislocated toe and will be heavily responsible for blitz pickups in Sunday's game.
Jeff Curry/US Presswire
Wade Phillips rested five starters this week in preparation for the Steelers.
Romo's point is that Pittsburgh uses excellent defensive personnel, a unique scheme and unpredictable tendencies to create confusion and breakdowns that allow James Harrison and Troy Polamalu the chance to win games for the Steelers on defense. It seems logical the Cowboys would want their key blocking personnel to have all the repetitions they could provide those players.
Adding to the oddity of the decision is the fact the Cowboys had four of the previous five days off. Factor in the team's history of December failure and that Phillips has never led a team to an NFL playoff victory as a head coach, and the risk becomes more apparent.
Phillips certainly has opened himself up to criticism if his team plays badly, much as he did when he gave the Cowboys enough time off before last season's playoff loss to the New York Giants that Romo and Jason Witten vacationed in Cabo San Lucas while several defensive starters went to New Orleans for the college championship game.
Clearly, Phillips has made the game's first risky play before even putting on his headset.
-- Ed Werder
Politically correct Bucs winning under the radar: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-3. But their record is perfect when it comes to being politically correct.
When I asked linebacker Barrett Ruud why the team, which right now is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, isn't getting more attention, he explained, "It's probably because we have a lack of big-name players. For whatever reason, we're forgotten … but we don't mind."
"There aren't any soap operas here," center Jeff Faine told me. "We're just a 'team,' and that's kind of boring."
It's pretty much what you'd expect to hear. Politically correct.
Then there's coach Jon Gruden.
"It bothers me a lot that this team doesn't get more credit," Gruden admitted after his Bucs intercepted Drew Brees three times and beat the Saints on Sunday. "Maybe I'm campaigning for recognition, I don't know. People need to get a satellite or something and tune in. I like this team a lot."
This week, fans finally do have a chance to tune in. On Monday night, Tampa Bay will break a first-place tie with the equally ignored 9-3 Carolina Panthers. It'll be just the second time this season the Bucs are on national television.
Their first nationally televised game was Oct. 18 -- the same night the crosstown Tampa Bay Rays played host to the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS.
Sometimes it's not easy getting noticed.
-- Bob Holtzman
A new Boss emerging in New York: With apologies to Bruce Springsteen, there is a new Boss of the Meadowlands -- Kevin Boss, the Paul Bunyanesque tight end chopping down opposing secondaries for the 11-1 New York Giants. With that astronaut crew cut and western Oregon upbringing, Boss looks like a character from a John Wayne posse.
When the Giants jettisoned Jeremy Shockey -- and his histrionics and dropsies in big games -- the big question was whether Boss, who plays tight end in a far more pedestrian style, would be a productive enough replacement.
Question answered. Boss leads New York with five touchdown catches. That's good for third among tight ends in the league. A couple of Pro Bowlers named Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez have six each -- so Boss has climbed the ladder of tight end royalty pretty fast.
Evan Pinkus/Getty Images
Kevin Boss (5 TD catches) has provided Eli Manning with another weapon in the Giants' offense.
And now that Plaxico Burress is gone for the rest of the season, Boss -- at 6-6, 253 pounds -- becomes the big target at Eli Manning's disposal.
Actually, Boss has been getting the job done already. When the Giants rolled through Philadelphia on Nov. 9, Boss burned the Eagles for six catches, his highest total of the year, including a touchdown. He could have had two TDs, but he dropped one. "I don't want to talk about that," said Boss, who averaged a gaudy 11.5 yards a catch that day in Philly. He'll get more chances for six points.
Boss has become Manning's favorite red zone target. Not withstanding that one end zone drop, Boss possesses Burress' hands and wing span. He's not nearly as athletic as Burress or Shockey, but he's not as mouthy as the latter and is less trouble than the former.
"The route we like to run down near the goal line is called a Y-Square In," Boss said. "What happens is Amani [Toomer] runs a shallow cross underneath me and we read the Mike [linebacker] together. If the linebacker covers Amani, Eli comes to me. If I'm covered, Amani gets the ball. I take the high, Amani takes the low. It's a simple high-low route."
For whatever reason -- Brian Dawkins losing a step, the linebackers a little stiff in coverage -- the Eagles have had trouble with tight ends all season. Jason Witten of the Cowboys had seven catches for 110 yards in Week 2. Chris Cooley of the Redskins had eight catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Even underachieving Vernon Davis of the 49ers had a big day against the Eagles' D with six catches for 75 yards in Week 6, his biggest production to that point of the season. Add Boss' totals in Week 9, and you have a nice trend that Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is still trying to solve.
-- Sal Paolantonio
Week 14: Numbers Crunching
Falcons at Saints, 1 p.m.
New Orleans ranks 31st in DVOA when defending passes to running backs, worse than any team except Kansas City -- but it will be hard for Atlanta to take advantage of this when they've thrown only six passes to Michael Turner all season.
Atlanta converts third-and-long (7 plus yards to go) more often than any other offense -- 36 percent of the time. New Orleans doesn't convert quite as often (33 percent) but they have the best DVOA in the league on third-and-long because Brees has no interceptions in those situations. The Falcons and Saints are the only two teams in the NFL that gain more than nine yards per play on third-and-long.
• More Falcons-Saints: Intel Report | EA Sim
Eagles at Giants, 1 p.m.
The Philadelphia offense and New York defense are strong overall, but they share a strange weakness: second-and-short (1-3 yards to go). Philadelphia ranks 28th in offensive DVOA, but the Giants are dead last in defensive DVOA. On second down with four or more yards to go, Philadelphia ranks third in offensive DVOA and the Giants rank sixth in defensive DVOA.
According to the Football Outsiders game charting project, the Eagles use more zone blitzes than any other team in the NFL -- 13 percent of pass plays. (For our purposes, a zone blitz is defined as any play where the defense rushes at least one linebacker or defensive back while at least one defensive lineman drops into coverage.)
• More Eagles-Giants: Intel Report | EA Sim
Cowboys at Steelers, 4:15 p.m.
The offensive line isn't the only reason why Ben Roethlisberger seems to be always running for his life. Pittsburgh has faced more blitzes than any other offense -- Steelers opponents send six or more pass rushers over 20 percent of the time.
Dallas has the best offense in the NFL in the fourth quarter.
• More Cowboys-Steelers: Intel Report | EA Sim
Buccaneers at Panthers, 8:30 p.m. (Monday)
Only New Orleans and the New York Giants have a higher DVOA out of the shotgun than the Carolina Panthers … but only Seattle and Houston use the shotgun less often than the Carolina Panthers, who use it on just 13 percent of plays.
It is very important for the Panthers to continuously gain yardage on first down, because they don't want to be stuck in second-and-long. Carolina's offense ranks third in DVOA on second down with 1-6 yards to go, but 25th with 7+ yards to go. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay has the league's best defensive DVOA on second-and-long.
• More Buccaneers-Panthers: Intel Report | EA Sim
Fantasy Corner
-
Week 14 players I love
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: You know what's depressing? I don't have to apologize for this being an obvious call. Because it no longer is. But LT has eight 100-yard games in his 10 December contests and you (yes, you) can run on Oakland.
David Garrard and Matt Jones, Jaguars: I expect 200 yards passing, a touchdown and 35 yards rushing for Garrard against a Bears defense that is 29th against the pass. And Jones to be his leading receiver with approximately 80 yards.
Devin Hester, WR, Bears: Since Kyle Orton is back, Hester has 159 yards and a score in two games. Jags have given up 19 passing touchdowns, tied for fourth-most in the league.
Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings: Playing Detroit, I could see the Vikings getting up big and resting Peterson. You'd have to be in a pretty deep league or pretty desperate to start Taylor in a playoff game, but I do think he has upside. He also has scored in back-to-back games.
Donald Lee, TE, Packers: Weird stat: Donald Lee has a touchdown in four straight home games. I know, I said I was OK with dropping him in this week's TMR and I am. There are a lot of tight ends out there. But if you have kept him on your roster, he's worth a gamble this week.
Complete Berry Love/Hate column
On This Week
- Who is Plaxico Burress? Where did he come from, and how did he get where he is today? Jeremy Schaap profiles how Burress' past has shaped the Giants' star wide receiver.
- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is known for his toughness in the pocket. Find out what makes him so tough as Big Ben gets Unmasked.
-
The "Mayne Event" heads to Tampa, where you won't believe what doubles as an indoor practice facility for Jon Gruden and crew.
- The Countdown crew plays "State Your Case" for the top team in the AFC, and we'll predict how teams in the NFC South will finish at season's end.
Horton's Film Room Notes
 | |
| Williams |
Trickle-down effect
After looking at the film, you truly realize how important DTs Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are to the Vikings. They are massive inside defenders who control the line of scrimmage with a one-gap penetrating technique or a two-gap, read-and-react style. You never see both of these players single-blocked at the same time, which means one is always double-teamed. Plus, their play inside allows DE Jared Allen to have one-on-one matchups off the edge.
If Pat and Kevin Williams are suspended, offenses will be able to play man-to-man inside and then pay more attention to Allen. Plus, because there will be less pressure on the quarterback, the Vikings' secondary will be more vulnerable.
 | |
| Ware |
Bring on the heat
The Cowboys' defense has been much more aggressive since their Week 10 bye, and over the past three games they have 14 sacks. Earlier in the season, the Cowboys relied on their defensive line to create pressure, but now they bring pressure from all three levels. Plus, they don't necessarily blitz to sack the quarterback; often they bring pressure to take away double-teams and create favorable one-on-one matchups. Dallas also plays more games up front to confuse the offensive line.
Video
Chat Wrap
 | |
| Collins |
Anthony (Nashville): Mort, some people have said Kerry Collins' name for MVP. While I disagree with MVP why not "Comeback Player of the Year". That award shouldn't always go to a previously injured player, should it?
Mort: No, it doesn't always have to be an injured player and I would agree Collins is a candidate. Also, let's see how Delhomme continues to play. His injury was unique and the Panthers are 9-3.
Mike (Atlanta): Mort, will the Giants look to free agency to maybe replace Plax at the end of the year or the draft or players already on the roster?
Mort: They have a very ample group of receivers. That won't be a priority, I don't think, but certainly they will look to add one because Toomer is getting some age even though he remains an effective wideout.
Craig (Norwich, Conn): Do assistant coaches such as Monte Kiffin and Dick LeBeau deserve Hall of Fame consideration?
Mort: This is a HUGE flaw in the Hall of Fame recognition and I have spoken with a number of influential HOF voters. To me, there needs to be a separate wing for contributors and assistant coaches (even those like LeBeau who have gotten a chance to be a head coach). If the media gets a wing, why not front office contributors and assistant coaches?
 | |
| Edwards |
Ron (Kansas City): Mort, what are you hearing about Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards being back next season? I think we need to give them another year. I see some progress.
Mort: I reported on this Monday night -- Herm is almost certain to come back. Carl's future seems less certain. There is real progress and Clark Hunt likes Herm, believes the team probably should have started rebuilding a year earlier than it did and the target year to really contend is 2010 when Arrowhead opens with its renovations.
Week 14 Roundtable
1. Which teams do you see making the playoffs in the AFC?
 | |
| Jones |
Jeremy Green: I think the division winners will be the Jets, Titans, Steelers and Broncos. My wild cards are the Colts and Ravens. While the Jets clearly felt some pressure last week in a bad loss versus Denver, I think head coach Eric Mangini will rally his troops over the next four games. Tennessee is a lock and all roads to the Super Bowl will go through Nashville in the AFC. Pittsburgh has a tough closing schedule as does Baltimore, but Pittsburgh currently has a one-game lead and is the better overall football team. Denver will win the AFC West by default and as the likely fourth seed has a chance to get bounced early because the Broncos are not better then either of my wild-card selections.
Gary Horton: The Titans will be the No. 1 seed and play at home in January. They will play solid defense down the stretch, run the football and control the clock. Pittsburgh will come in as the No. 2 seed, but pass protection problems and lack of a dependable run game in January will hold the Steelers back. The Jets will win the AFC East and they will be the No. 3 seed because they have enough playmakers at every position to be really dangerous. By default, Denver wins the AFC West and will be the No. 4 seed, but the Broncos will be one and done. The wild cards will be perennial powerhouses New England and Indianapolis. Both will win their wild-card games, which will set up two great divisional playoff games. Tennessee should beat the Pats and Indy will upset Pittsburgh.
2. Which teams do you see making the playoffs in the NFC?
Green: I think the division winners will be the Giants, Buccaneers, Vikings and Cardinals. My two wild-card teams are the Panthers and Cowboys. I think all roads to the Super Bowl in the NFC will lead right through the Meadowlands and that is going to be one nasty place to play come January. There is a huge showdown this week in the NFC South that will take place between Tampa Bay and Carolina and while that game is in Carolina, Tampa Bay has been playing better football. Even though Minnesota potentially could lose DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams inside, the Bears and Packers just can't stop anyone on defense and I do not think either is capable of getting on a late-season run. Arizona is not playing very well either, but gets in by default in the terrible NFC West.
Horton: The Giants are clearly the No. 1 seed in the NFC and it will be tough to beat them in January. They are resilient, battle-tested, deep and their game plan is portable. The Bucs will be the No. 2 seed, but they are not a dynamic team and it will be tough for them to go deep in the playoffs. The No. 3 seed will be lackluster Minnesota, but like Tampa Bay the Vikings will likely be one and done. That leaves the Cardinals as the No. 4 seed from the weak NFC West, but as good as this offense can be they will have an early playoff exit. That leaves Carolina and Dallas as the wild cards and both will advance to the divisional round, setting up exciting divisional games.