Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide
Weekly Picks |
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| Ditka | Johnson | Carter | Mortensen | Jackson | ||
| Atlanta @ Arizona | Atlanta | Arizona | Atlanta | Arizona | Atlanta | |
| Indianapolis @ San Diego | San Diego | San Diego | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | |
| Baltimore @ Miami | Miami | Miami | Miami | Baltimore | Baltimore | |
| Philadelphia @ Minnesota | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | Minnesota | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | |
| Week 17 record | 10-6 | 12-4 | 12-4 | 11-5 | 13-3 | |
| Overall record | 162-93-1 | 165-90-1 | 163-92-1 | 166-89-1 | 166-89-1 | |
| More picks: Our other experts | SportsNation: Mia.-Bal. ... Ind.-S.D. ... Phi.-Minn. ... Atl.-Ari. | ||||||
Countdown Confidential
Pennington succeeding where others have failed: The list is long, and generally undistinguished: Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, John Beck. All quarterbacks the Dolphins thought could, well, quarterback, in the wake of Dan Marino. All disappointments during their time in Miami.
Kirby Lee/US Presswire
After two surgeries and being released from the Jets, Chad Pennington revived his career this season, helping lead the Dolphins to the AFC East crown.
So it's no wonder that when players were asked this week to name the biggest factor in their shocking turnaround from 1-15 to AFC East champions, most Dolphins took less than a second to spit out Chad Pennington's name.
"He's our savior," linebacker Joey Porter said bluntly. Porter knows that Pennington won't ever brag for himself, so he does it for him.
"He just makes great decisions with the ball, does whatever is best for the team," Porter said. "We know the Jets released him for Brett Favre. And Brett is great. I feel like he could be commissioner of the NFL one day, everybody loves him. But if I was running a team, I'd take Chad. Every time."
Porter is right; Pennington isn't going to brag. But he is open about how determined he is to make the most of this game against the Ravens, and whatever might follow. At 32, and with two potentially career-ending shoulder surgeries behind him, he's aware of how fleeting success can be.
"That's why we're all scrapping around here," he said. "This is not an everyday occurrence. The opportunity is now and it's a nice opportunity to have and you really want to take advantage of it."
-- Rachel NicholsTurner ready to run through Cardinals wall: It's not the typical playoff blueprint. Rookie quarterback. Rookie head coach. Career backup running back.
But the Atlanta Falcons aren't the typical team. Take running back Michael Turner. Some players might tell their teammates they'd run through a wall for them. Legend has it Turner actually did when he was at Northern Illinois University. It's a tale he now denies. "I don't know where that came from," Turner told me this week. "I've never run through a wall."Not that he's totally opposed to the idea.
"For a Super Bowl I would," Turner admitted.
"It doesn't surprise me at all to hear that," said offensive rookie of the year Matt Ryan. "He'll probably be upset with me for saying it, but he's built like a bowling ball." Turner, the alleged wall-crashing bowling ball with the 1,699-yard season, is the key to the Falcons' chances this weekend in Arizona. The more successful he is, the less the high-flying Cardinals offense will be on the field. Three times this season, the Falcons held the ball for 35 minutes or more in a game. They won all three. They hope to do the same on Saturday.It may be possible. Over the past five games the Cardinals are allowing an average of 156 rushing yards per game.
-- Bob Holtzman
Reid taking high road amidst late-season criticism: After demoralizing Dallas on Sunday, Eagles head coach Andy Reid -- who has been vilified from Allentown to Atlantic City for the past month -- had every right to drop a big, steaming heap of "I told you so" in the lap of Philadelphia's faithful.
Instead, he chose the high road.
"Listen, that's not how I operate," Reid said. "We're blessed here to be in Philadelphia with a great fan base that is knowledgeable about the game. I mentioned to somebody that in a lot of cities, it's game to game. In Philadelphia, it's play to play, and you have to love that as a coach and a player. From play to play, you're criticized for the bad and praised for the good."
Mostly, lately, Reid has been criticized for the bad -- particularly bad play calling. In the humiliating loss to the Redskins on Dec. 21, Reid dialed up just 13 called run plays, including a reverse to rookie wide receiver DeSean Jackson. The Eagles failed to score a touchdown in the game and even in his own locker room there was some headshaking about the head coach's doomed plan.
Rich Kane/US Presswire
Once considered a lame-duck coach, Andy Reid rallied his team to earn the Eagles' seventh playoff berth in the past nine years.
And the loss to the Redskins had been preceded by three straight wins -- all of which included much more balance on offense. On Thanksgiving night, the Eagles had 40 rush attempts in the win over Arizona. At the Meadowlands, there were 42 rush attempts in the upset of the Giants. And a Monday night dismantling of the Browns included 33 rushing attempts.
So, when Reid went back to his old ways of over-reliance on the passing game in Washington, the fans were ready to run him out of town.
And what happened against Dallas? Eighteen called run plays in the first half. A total of 36 running plays in the game -- and 17 touches by underutilized backup running back Correll Buckhalter.
The offensive game plan (Donovan McNabb threw just 21 times, his lowest total other than when he was benched versus Baltimore) kept the defense fresh. Five Dallas turnovers later, the final score was 44-6.
But beware of the Minnesota Vikings and their No. 1-ranked run defense. That could force Reid back to his old habits: Pass early and often, and worry about the consequences -- and the fans -- later.
-- Sal Paolantonio
Wild-Card Weekend: Numbers Crunching
Falcons at Cardinals, Saturday 4:30 p.m.
Through half the season, Arizona had 21 quarterback sacks and ranked eighth in adjusted sack rate (explained here). Since then, the Cardinals have just 10 sacks, and only Kansas City had a lower adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, Atlanta's offensive line has allowed only five sacks since midseason, tied with Indianapolis for the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league since Week 10.
Arizona's offense generally starts slow, then heats up. The Cardinals rank 26th in offensive DVOA in the first quarter (with just 5.6 yards per play) and then fourth for the rest of the game (with 6.2 yards per play). And Falcons fans beware if this game stays close into the second half: Arizona's offense ranked second in the NFL during late and close situations (only New Orleans was better) while the Atlanta defense was a poor 29th.
• More Falcons-Cardinals: Intel Report
Colts at Chargers, Saturday 8 p.m.
The Chargers have a big advantage over the Colts when it comes to running in short-yardage situations. San Diego ranks second in power running success on offense, and eighth preventing such success on defense. Indianapolis is 21st on offense and 30th on defense. The Colts get around this problem by passing more on third-and-short. On third or fourth down with 1-3 yards to go, Peyton Manning converted 28 of 37 passes for a new set of downs (29 of 38 if we count a pass interference call). The league average was only 50 percent.
The Chargers also have an advantage on special teams, 12th in the FO rankings compared to 26th for Indianapolis. The biggest issue is the field-position advantage the Chargers will get when forced to punt. Both San Diego's Mike Scifres and Indianapolis' Hunter Smith had strong years as punters, but the Chargers had average punt returns while the Colts had the worst punt returns in the league. Although both Nate Kaeding and Adam Vinatieri are known as quality kickers, both had below-average years in field goal value.
• More Colts-Chargers: Intel Report
Ravens at Dolphins, Sunday 1:30 p.m.
This game matches the best offense in the red zone (Miami) against the best defense in the red zone (Baltimore). Another trait those two units have in common: Miami's offense and Baltimore's defense led the league in DVOA when tied or trailing by up to one touchdown.
Baltimore had the best punting in the league, worth an estimated 20.7 points of field position. However, the Ravens were below average in all other aspects of special teams. That's still better than Miami, which ranked 29th overall in our special-teams ratings and was particularly poor both punting and kicking off.
• More Ravens-Dolphins: Intel Report
Eagles at Vikings, Sunday 4:30 p.m.
The Eagles spent a ton of free-agent money on cornerback Asante Samuel, but it's the other starter, Sheldon Brown, who may have been the best cornerback in football this year (non-Nigerian division). Brown leads all cornerbacks with at least 35 charted passes in both of FO's defensive coverage metrics, averaging just 4.6 yards per pass with a success rate of 74 percent. We don't have Brown down as allowing a single touchdown, at least through Week 14, and he wasn't flagged once all year for illegal contact or pass interference. Brown is usually on the offensive left, so he will spend much of the game covering Minnesota's best receiver, Bernard Berrian.
• More Eagles-Vikings: Intel Report
On This Week
- Colts QB Peyton Manning sends handwritten notes to retiring players whom he admires. Tom Jackson sits down with Peyton and we visit with some of the players who have received a "Manning Letter."
- From 1-15 to the AFC East division crown -- how did the Miami Dolphins do it? Greg Garber heads to Miami to discover how the Dolphins mastered the art of the turnaround.
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How did Baltimore rookie QB Joe Flacco win over the Ravens' D? We sent the last Ravens quarterback to win a Super Bowl -- Trent Dilfer -- to find out.
- The "Mayne Event" heads to Minnesota where the "coach-in-waiting" idea is being taken to unreal proportions. Could the Vikings' coach of 2055 already be determined?
Horton's Film Room Notes
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New York Giants
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Chat Wrap
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Will J (Portland, Ore.): Mort, how surprised were you on the Shanahan firing? It definitely caught me off guard.
Mort: Very surprised but short of "shocked." Shanahan actually did one of his best coaching jobs but clearly Bowlen felt Shanahan's GM work had fallen short. And Bowlen wanted changes. Quite an event.
Yatin (LA): Do you see Andy Reid going back to his pass-happy ways against the Vikings great run D, or will he see how good this team can be with a balanced offense that includes Buckhalter?
Mort: I think it will be more through the air but Andy will attack wherever he feels the Eagles have favorable matchups -- that's what coaches do.
Ross (Chicago): Do you think Pioli will hold off on accepting the Browns job and talk with the Broncos and who do you see as Denver's next coach?
Mort: I don't know but have wondered about that on Pioli; if anything it gives him leverage with Lerner. As far as the Broncos, I expect Pat Bowlen to hire a GM, then a defensive coordinator as head coach -- OC Jeremy Bates just agreed to a three-year contract extension so the offense wouldn't have to take as big a hit.
Brandon (Indiana): Mort, is anybody interested in Mike Martz for OC, maybe the Bears??
Mort: No, I don't see the Bears doing that because it may not be compatible with their philosophy. But I will say that I was very impressed with what Martz did in San Francisco, especially under Singletary. No one is perfect. Mike has some flaws, but he is a very qualified offensive coach with the right checks and balances from the head coach.
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| Jauron |
Dave (Dallas): What do you think of the Bills bringing back Jauron? Seems like the team always plays hard for him, but they also do some stupid things sometimes when it comes to game management.
Mort: I think it was the right thing to stick with Jauron for stability reasons. But if Wilson had kept Donahoe and Mularkey together, this deal would have gone to the next level (to open new wounds). Look, I really do hope the Bills get this thing going but you can't keep changing coaches and the football operation.
First and Goal
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Matchups are everything during the playoffs. That's why Saturday's Indianapolis Colts-San Diego Chargers game is so appealing.
Although the Colts finished four games better than the Chargers, many oddsmakers are calling it a pick 'em game, and they should. The Colts may enter as the favorites, but they know it's not a good matchup for them.
The Chargers' 3-4 defense gives the Colts serious problems. The Chargers' defensive line is physical. Their secondary can make plays. The Chargers usually can put pressure on Peyton Manning.
In the 2005 to 2007 seasons, the Chargers won three straight games against the Colts, including last season's 28-24 victory in the divisional playoffs. All three games were close -- the margins of victory were nine, two and four points.
Who can forget the 2007 Sunday night regular-season game in San Diego during which Manning threw six interceptions and let the Chargers build a 23-0 lead? Injuries left the Colts without their starting wide receivers and top tight end, Dallas Clark. But Manning mounted a stirring comeback with street receivers and unknown tight ends he barely knew and who have long since been forgotten.
In one of his more incredible showings, Manning rallied the Colts with 21 points and had them inside the Chargers' 10-yard line with less than two minutes remaining. All they needed was an Adam Vinatieri field goal to win. But some rare clock mismanagement by the Colts and a miss by Vinatieri gave San Diego a 23-21 victory.
The Chargers came to the RCA Dome as clear underdogs in the second round of last season's playoffs. Tight end Antonio Gates had a toe injury that should have kept him out. Quarterback Philip Rivers played even though his knee needed reconstruction. Confident from their past successes, the Chargers beat the Colts and advanced to the AFC title game.
The Colts squeezed out a 23-20 victory earlier this season in San Diego, but that was an adventure, too. Rivers orchestrated a late-game drive that enabled the Chargers to tie the game and set it up for overtime. But Chargers coach Norv Turner made a fatal mistake when he called a timeout in the final two minutes.
That timeout gave Manning 90 seconds to engineer an eight-play field goal drive to win the game.
The Chargers are confident they can beat the Colts. Both teams are hot. The Chargers have won four straight after a 4-8 start. The Colts have won nine in a row after a 3-4 start.
Saturday's game could be a classic.