Updated: August 31, 2006, 3:38 PM ET

2006 49ers preview

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San Francisco 49ers

THE BOTTOM LINE


Mike Nolan knew this wasn't going to be easy. Former 49ers general manager Terry Donahue didn't stagger the contracts of most of his best players, so Nolan had to say goodbye to linebacker Julian Peterson and defensive end Andre Carter. Nolan has tried to rebuild the offense. Quarterback Alex Smith has a better chance this season than he did a year ago because he has a better surrounding cast. He can throw to Antonio Bryant, Arnaz Battle, Eric Johnson and rookie tight end Vernon Davis. Smith should also be helped by a more-settled offensive line and the sharp play calling of new offensive coordinator Norv Turner.

The bad news? The cupboard is bare on defense. Nolan has been weeding out a lot of failed No. 1 draft choices. He enters the season uncertain whether he can run a 3-4 defense because of concerns at linebacker and an undersized defensive line. Coverage problems in the secondary will make it tough, too.

The team is in good hands with Nolan. He's a bright coach and seems to have a good plan in trying to rebuild the team. The only problem is the level of talent following the Donahue years. Nolan is finding out he hasn't struck gold by going to San Francisco.



SCOUTS TAKE


The 49ers have to fill huge voids left by the departures of CB Mike Rumph, LB Julian Peterson, DE Andre Carter and RB Kevan Barlow. Not only were these former high draft choices and valuable contributors on the field, they had a voice in the locker room.

All-Pro guard Larry Allen, who is still regarded by many as the best offensive lineman in football, was a huge signing for the 49ers. He brings instant leadership and credibility to an offensive line that just lost center and leader Jeremy Newberry for the season. Look for RB Frank Gore to step up and carry the load, and QB Alex Smith will be much more effective in 2006 with the arrival of offensive coordinator Norv Turner.

Without the threat of a dominant pass rusher, the 49ers may once again struggle to keep opponents out of the end zone unless they can find a way to be creative with their blitzes and coverage schemes. Mike Nolan is considered by some as a defensive genius, so he should have plenty of wrinkles to keep the division on its toes, but lacks the manpower and depth to challenge in the NFC West.

Prediction: Fourth place in NFC West.


SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Believe it or not, the 49ers have a very good group of starters on their offensive line. Three of their starters had run-blocking success percentages of over 80 percent last year (80 percent being the sign of a good blocker). Eric Heitmann's metrics were so good that he ranked in the top five among centers in both success percentage and yards per attempt. Larry Allen ranked in the top 30 in success percentage for guards and Kwame Harris placed just outside of the top 30 among tackles.

There are still some possible holes in this group. Justin Smiley's metrics were mediocre and Jonas Jennings is rebounding from a season-ending injury in 2005. Nonetheless, if it can stay healthy, the 49ers' offensive line could be the anchor for a strong running game in 2006.




From ESPN The MAGAZINE
The Big Number
1:11There's ready for prime time, and then there's Alex Smith. His 1-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio is the worst any rookie quarterback with at least 150 attempts has had in the past 20 years. Second-worst? Ryan Leaf (1998) at 2-to-15.

STRENGTH
It's tough to get excited about a team whose best assets are tight ends, but that's the story here. Eric Johnson (left) missed all of last season with a foot injury, but caught 82 balls the year before. Eventually, he'll be a dangerous backup to first-round pick Vernon Davis (6-foot-3, 253 pounds). With Johnson settling in underneath and Davis stretching the field with his speed, they'll give Alex Smith some of the relief he lacked last season.

WEAKNESS
It's a toss-up between the wide receivers and the defensive line. At least the WRs have youth going for them. The defensive line has zero margin for error. Bryant Young is the only standout. He is 34 and missed three games last season with a sprained MCL. Plus, there's not much in the way of depth, and the offense won't provide any rest.

PROSPECTS
Alex Smith knows 2006 will be better than 2005. Why? "Because it can't get worse than last year," he says. Now, in the second year of the Mike Nolan era, the Niners elected not to overpay their own locker room headaches (WR Brandon Lloyd) and inconsistent performers (LB Julian Peterson), and opted to take on other teams' headaches (Antonio Bryant) and inconsistent performers (Larry Allen) at lower prices. The result is a team that has some decent skill talent (Frank Gore, Davis and Johnson), but is thin on defense. Smith, meanwhile, spent the offseason working on his fundamentals, often doing up to 200 seven-step drops a day. If he finds himself chased back farther than that, he may wonder if last year really was as bad as it gets.

Team Preview Centers

Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
Sept. 10: at Arizona
Sept. 17: St. Louis
Sept. 24: Philadelphia
Oct. 1: at Kansas City
Comings & Goings
Key Acquisitions:
OG Larry Allen; WR Antonio Bryant; CB Walt Harris; CB Sammy Davis.

Key Departures:
LB Julian Peterson; WR Brandon Lloyd; RB Fred Beasley; DE Andre Carter.

Offensive Starters (as of 8/30)
RB Frank Gore
FB Chris Hetherington
QB Alex Smith
WR Antonio Bryant
RT Kwame Harris
RG Justin Smiley
C Eric Heitmann
LG Larry Allen
LT Jonas Jennings
TE Eric Johnson
WR Arnaz Battle
Defensive Starters (as of 8/30)
LDE Bryant Young
NT Anthony Adams
RDE Marques Douglas
LOLB Brandon Moore
LILB Derek Smith
RILB Jeff Ulbrich
ROLB Manny Lawson
LCB Shawntae Spencer
FS Mike Adams
SS Tony Parrish
RCB Walt Harris

• Complete roster