Pasquarelli: AFC draft analysis
Pasquarelli: NFC draft analysis
Kiper: Draft grades
Mueller: Draft-day trades added intrigue
Pasquarelli: Texans draft Henson
Clayton: Bittersweet moment
Texans select Henson in sixth round
Pasquarelli: Slippery slope
Pasquarelli: Running on empty
Pasquarelli: Ravens jump on Suggs
Pasquarelli: As advertised
Pasquarelli: Misadventures in Minnesota
No surprise here: Palmer goes No. 1 to Bengals
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Sunday, April 27, 2003
Updated: March 11, 11:20 AM ET
Observations from a draft weekend in New York
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
NEW YORK -- Except for the Minnesota Vikings, the NFL took a page from baseball during its annual college selection draft. To speed up the game, baseball cut down the time between pitches and innings. Maybe because this was considered a weak draft, NFL teams took less time between selections.
A total of 32 teams selected 262 players in 15 hours and one minute. That's 3:43 a selection. That's pretty amazing when you consider the Raiders took the entire 30 minutes to make their two selections at the end of the first round. The Rams called the Raiders during the 30 minutes and offered them a seventh-rounder just to make the pick. This wasn't a draft to waste time.
It was a weird draft, loaded with wide-bodied defensive linemen and surprisingly thin on defensive backs. Defenses got 50 new tackles and ends. By pick No 200, there were 42 defensive linemen chosen. One in every five picks to that point were defensive linemen. Though there were 51 defensive backs taken, many may not be ready to be major contributors in their first seasons.
|  | | Jimmy Kennedy was one of the 11 DLs to go in the first round. |
From that trend, you would have to figure defenses better win more of the battles at the line of scrimmage because if they don't, quarterbacks are going to pass them to death. Many of the 38 wide receivers were in the 6-foot-2, 200-plus pound range with speed. Most of the cornerbacks weren't six foot. Considering the league has only 24 new guards and centers to handle the 25 new, overpowering defensive tackles, quarterbacks better not hang too long in the pocket. Only three guards went in the top 100. Six defensive tackles went in the top 25.
Now that we've taken a brief overview of one of the strangest drafts in NFL history, let's break it down scientifically:
1. Whatever happened to drafting for need? No team needed a run-stopping defensive tackle more than Seattle, but it waited until the sixth round to pick up two -- veteran Norman Hand in a trade from New Orleans and rookie Rashad Moore from Tennessee. The Hand acquisition, though, could be major. He's a run-stopper. Despite drafting solid picks in tackle Kwame Harris, defensive tackle Anthony Adams and defensive end Andrew Williams, the 49ers, who are cutting J.J. Stokes in June, waited until the fourth round to get Brandon Lloyd from Illinois. For a West Coast offensive team, the 49ers have neglected the receiver position. And of all things, how can Cowboys coach Bill Parcells not draft a defensive tackle when he can't start a defensive lineman weighing over 281 pounds.. Parcells is playing "small ball" this season. The numbers don't add up in Cleveland. They lost their top four linebackers and added only two -- veteran Barry Gardner and second-round choice Chaun Thompson.
2. The biggest winners in this draft were the AFC teams that picked the first three quarterbacks. Not only did the Bengals, Ravens and Jaguars improve their potential in the passing game, but all three teams drafted solidly. Quarterback Carson Palmer, guard Eric Steinbach, wide receiver Kelley Washington, cornerback Dennis Weathersby and fullback Jeremi Johnson could all be starters in 2004. Quarterback Kyle Boller and linebacker Terrell Suggs are a great one-two punch for Baltimore, but I'm still wondering if there wasn't a way to do it without giving up next year's No. 1. Byron Leftwich might sit this year, but the transition of quarterbacks involving Mark Brunell to Leftwich should work well over the next couple of years.
3. There might not be 16 total starts from any of the 23 running backs drafted if you subtract the use of the fullbacks. Willis McGahee (Buffalo), Larry Johnson (Kansas City), Musa Smith (Baltimore), Chris Brown (Tennessee) and Justin Fargas (Oakland) are all going to teams with 1,000-yard starters. As bad as this running back class is, don't expect a 2003 halfback to compete for Rookie of the Year.
4. A year ago, the Eagles drafted their secondary of the future by making defensive backs Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis and Sheldon Brown their first three choices. The Chargers, who cut Rodney Harrison and Alex Molden, will be seeing more immediate returns from their first three choices -- cornerbacks Sammy Davis and Drayton Florence and safety Terrence Kiel. By the way, the Eagles did a nice job of replacing departed free agent Hugh Douglas by trading up to get Jerome McDougle and taking Jamaal Green of Miami as a backup.
5. Here's a few predictions on future transactions. The Steelers will end up with Giants halfback Ron Dayne unless the Cowboys outbid them. Cardinals halfback Thomas Jones could end up going to Miami for linebacker Derrick Rodgers. The Dolphins will still get Broncos quarterback Brian Griese in June instead of the Cowboys, who will end up with Ray Lucas. As much as Jamir Miller made a smart move adding weight to make him a consideration at defensive end, he blew a good chance at a job by not signing with the Ravens, who made Miller a non-consideration by drafting Terrell Suggs.
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Whatever happened to drafting for need? No team needed a run-stopping defensive tackle more than Seattle, but it waited until the sixth round to pick up two … . |
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6. The NFC West features three top offensive coaches -- Mike Holmgren in Seattle, Mike Martz in St. Louis and Dennis Erickson in San Francisco. Of the six choices among those teams in the first two rounds, only one offensive player was selected. The 49ers took right tackle Kwame Harris in the first round as a development tackle for the future.
7. If all the rookies make the teams in the NFC North, you might need a scorecard. The Bears drafted 12, the Lions 11, the Packers nine and the Vikings 7. Fourteen of the top 100 rookies went into this division. New starters will be defensive tackle Kevin Williams and linebacker E.J. Henderson in Minnesota, possibly linebacker Nick Barnett in Green Bay, wide receiver Charles Rogers and possibly linebacker Boss Bailey in Detroit and probably no one in Chicago. First-round pick Michael Haynes should start off on passing downs before earning time as a starter.
8. The sleeper draft of the league might be in Tennessee. Cornerback Andre Woolfolk will be a starter by 2004, and wide receiver Tyrone Calico could be the deep threat that Chris Sanders wasn't. Chris Brown is a nice back to develop for the 2005 season as a challenger to Eddie George. And defensive tackle Rien Long, a fourth-rounder, could become a big-time player in two years with Jeff Fisher's coaching and playing next to Albert Haynesworth.
9. It still puzzles me that the Lions, who had a nice draft, have the luxury to trade veteran players. They unloaded halfback Aveion Cason to Dallas for a No. 7 and wide receiver Larry Foster to Arizona for a seventh. Cason could develop into being a decent third-down back. Foster's a good fourth receiver who isn't bad when used as a No. 3. Will defensive back Blue Adams of Cincinnati and running back Brandon Drumm of Colorado provide more roster competition than two veterans who cost nothing to make the team? Just wondering.
10. The only knock on the three new receivers for the Arizona Cardinals is that two of them -- second-rounder Anquan Boldin and veteran Larry Foster -- lack speed. Boldin is a 4.7 40 receiver and Foster isn't much faster. Second-rounder Bryant Johnson is about a 4.5 runner. But at least the Cardinals upgraded one of the weakest receiving units in football.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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