Who will be left out from the Northwest
As of Thursday morning, only five points separated the five teams in the Northwest Division, from the Canucks at the top to the Oilers at the bottom. You could be a Wild fan, take a vacation to Luxembourg, not have the benefit of Al Gore's invention and be unable to find the International Herald Tribune, and return to find that a two-week slump or streak has changed the picture entirely.
At the All-Star break, both math and logic point to the conclusion that any one of the five teams could win the division and claim the conference's No. 3 playoff seed and home ice in the first round. Any of the five could be among the two or three divisional teams that miss the postseason altogether, grouse about the loss of revenue and perhaps attempt to renew the effort to expand the playoff field to include everyone but the Rochester Americans.
Somewhere, Pete Rozelle is nudging Clarence Campbell and saying, "Now that's parity."
The Canucks are on pace for 94 points, the Oilers for 86. That would produce the tightest "blanket" -- or is that "blankety-blank"? -- finish since the realignment to six divisions before the 1998-99 season.
None of those finishes would be disgusting and disgraceful, so this isn't quite the general ineptitude of the Smythe Division in the late 1970s, or the NBA's Atlantic Division of this season, with the Raptors blazing along at a .475 clip to claim the top spot.
Most likely, one or two teams in the Northwest are going to step up in the final 10 weeks, and one or two are going to go in the tank. Still, it seems as if the division is headed for a record "pack" finish.
"I've had it where there are a few teams involved in something up for grabs, but never with this many teams so tight," said Avalanche defenseman Ken Klee, who spent his entire career in the Eastern Conference before this season. "That's the nature of the beast now in the NHL. They want everything tight, and it is.
"I guess it's good for fans, to keep everyone into it. The last 40 games will be a huge push to get playoff spots. And playing all year is about getting playoff spots; we know that. I guarantee you all five of the teams in this division know it."
Playoffs?
In the West, we're taking Nashville and Detroit from the Central; Anaheim, San Jose and Dallas in the Pacific; and the top three finishers in the Northwest, unless the Coyotes, Blues or Blackhawks sustain a run and jump among the top eight.
But here's what's going to happen in the Northwest, in order:
Calgary Flames
It seemed inevitable all season. Surely, the Flames were going to get in gear, climb to the top of the division, open up a gap and cement that No. 3 playoff spot. Hold on. It's going to happen any day. Isn't it? It will happen, especially if:
• Jarome Iginla concludes, or is told, that true unselfishness would be staying out of fights, rather than feeling that answering the bell is the way to go, and he manages to get and stay healthy.
• The Flames can progress from inept to decent away from the Saddledome. "We've been struggling on the road," Alex Tanguay said recently. "Like every team in the division, we're hoping we can pull a few wins together and break away from the pack."
• Miikka Kiprusoff continues to hold up and thrive under the workload. At this point, that seems a given. "I like it," he said. "I just have to be a little careful and take care of my off-ice work. I have to be smart." Then, he smiled and added, "At San Jose, I was sitting on the bench, so now, I take every game they give me."
Verdict: The Flames will get to the top and stay there -- 99 points, first in the division, No. 3 playoff seed.
Vancouver Canucks
I admit I'm even more intrigued here because, last August, I picked the Canucks as the best long-shot "buy" on the Stanley Cup futures odds list, at 20-1. (In retrospect, the Predators, also at 20-1, would be looking pretty good at this point, too, though they still need to dispel the widespread notion that they have a roster more suited for the regular season than the playoffs.)
The Canucks underachieved last season (in part because of the dark cloud following around Todd Bertuzzi) and seemed to be adjusting out of the gate under new coach Alain Vigneault.
But with Roberto Luongo playing close to expectations in his first season following his trade from Florida, this has been the division's best team since the middle of November, winning 18 of the last 27.
"This is definitely the first time I've found myself in this situation, as far as winning and being in first place," Luongo said in a conference call. "My confidence level not only for myself, but the team, is very high right now and you can tell just by the way people are in the locker room. It's fun to be around the locker room and with the guys."
Verdict: The Canucks will continue to have fun -- 97 points, second in the division, No. 6 playoff seed.
Minnesota Wild
Until the new year, they were even more Dr. Jekyll at home and Mr. Hyde on the road, but the magic seems to have worn off at the Xcel Energy Center. Yet, Marian Gaborik finally returned to the lineup last week, and that's a huge plus, especially if he is unleashed. So this is the Wild-card team, more so than anyone else. I'll take the safest route and plug them right in the middle of the division.
Verdict: 90 points, third in the division, No. 8 playoff seed.
Edmonton Oilers
Maybe they'll be inspired by the celebrations surrounding the retirement of No.
11. Maybe Dwayne Roloson will become stingier. Maybe Joffrey Lupul will end up with 30-plus goals and make Edmonton fans believe GM Kevin Lowe did about as well as possible in cutting his losses in the Chris Pronger deal.
If the Oilers make the playoffs again, Craig MacTavish deserves serious consideration for coach of the year. Seriously.
Verdict: 83 points, fourth in the division, no playoffs.
Colorado Avalanche
The weird thing is that Colorado is 9-5-1 within the division so far, second only to the Flames in intradivisional points. It is praiseworthy that the once-elite franchise is hanging in the hunt, especially given the likelihood of the Jose Theodore trade going down as a monumental failure.
Peter Budaj, who is making $600,000 and is slated to make $700,000 next season, is making like Grant Fuhr in the iron-man department of late. Colorado has two of the top prospects in the league -- Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny (who causes every NHL writer to type "Peter" half the time before going back) -- and Joe Sakic hasn't slowed down.
But unless the Avalanche smoke everyone in a home-dominated stretch over the next three weeks, Colorado will miss the playoffs for the first time.
Verdict: 80 points, fifth in the division, no playoffs.
Terry Frei is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He is the author of "Third Down and a War to Go" and "Horns, Hogs, and Nixon Coming."
