Red Wings are still strong, but other West foes could get in way
No NHL franchise is in a league of its own.
Not even the Red Wings.
When I say that, I'm not talking about an elite status competitively, but about the reality that, in addition to the state of its own roster, a team's fate is tied to the improvement or deterioration of its opponents.
So with the season approaching, the continuing improvement of the Chicago Blackhawks and Phoenix Coyotes in the Western Conference, for example, looms as one of the key issues in surveying the chances of the other possible contenders for the playoff spots.
A reasonable argument can be made that the Blackhawks still are a season (or more) away from breaking through. It would be great for the league -- and the sport -- to have the excitement completely restored in Chicago, especially in light of the upcoming Blackhawks-Red Wings Winter Classic in Wrigley Field on New Year's Day.
Admittedly, that desire to feel as if the roof is about to come off the roof of the United Center again has caused some of us to overrate the Hawks' chances in other recent seasons, including when they landed Nikolai Khabibulin and Adrian Aucoin coming out of the 2004-05 lockout.
And how did that work out?
OK, not well at all.
But with Rocky Wirtz stepping out of the family shadows, running the franchise, and going along with shedding the Hawks' archaic approaches on so many fronts, the optimism this time is based on a solid foundation -- and not on wishful thinking.
Yes, it happened in part because of Khabibulin's failure to deliver anything close to a bang for the buck, but within the context of recent history, think how shocking this is: The Blackhawks, until this week, were scrambling to get under the cap. When nobody jumped in with a compelling offer for Khabibulin, the solution turned out to be the trading of Robert Lang to Montreal for a second-round draft pick.
Cristobal Huet has to prove he's a better buy than Khabibulin.
Brian Campbell has to prove he's a better buy than Aucoin.
Both will.
Amid the cast that includes Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, and with still six games against St. Louis and Columbus, they're heading for the playoffs this season.
Point inflation in the era of three-point games at times led to a corresponding overrating of the Hawks' showing last season, in the sense that their 40-34-8 record looked better at first glance than it was. Those 88 points were below the NHL average of 91, which is the true .500 mark. But they did improve 17 points over 2006-07, they're unquestionably on the rise and they'll get into the high 90s this season.
In Phoenix (or, if you want to be a stickler, in Glendale), Wayne Gretzky has an affinity for young talent and a tremendous amount of faith in his own ability to nurture it. As the Coyotes went through last season, it was apparent that as bad as they could look some nights, as deserted as the Jobing.com Arena could seem on some nights, they were on the right track.
Now, Ilya Bryzgalov is installed as the No. 1 man in net from the start. Shane Doan is still wearing the "C" and providing the sort of leadership this young team needs. Olli Jokinen is thrown into the mix as another solidifying force. And the young cast is destined to continue to improve.
The Coyotes' major problem is their division, but at least they're playing the Sharks, Stars and Ducks a total of six times apiece this season, rather than eight. Plus, the Coyotes might have pushed their luck by not leaving the slight Kyle Turris, who turned 19 in August, at the University of Wisconsin for at least one more (sophomore) season. Despite some lingering questions, the Coyotes are bound for the postseason, too, even if that means four teams from the Pacific end up qualifying.
Plus, the other team seemingly destined to move up is Edmonton, and Ales Hemsky is on the verge of stardom. Two years removed from the Cup finals, and after GM Kevin Lowe kicked himself upstairs, the Oilers might even win the Northwest Division.
Even if they are only slightly improved, that changes the face of the conference, too. You also could make the case that Vancouver, despite its relative offseason inertia, is due to rebound.
But for the sake or argument, I'm going to say that all three of those teams -- Chicago, Phoenix and Edmonton -- will make the postseason. The prime candidates to be nudged out from last season's field are Minnesota, Colorado and Nashville. And that's not as much about those three teams regressing -- although it certainly would have to happen in the point totals -- as the nonplayoff teams getting better. Standing still doesn't work, and if either Peter Budaj or Andrew Raycroft doesn't give Colorado topflight goaltending and earn the No. 1 job by something other than default, the Avalanche slide could be significant.
Finally, with a few more interconference games this season -- 18, up from 10 -- a likely edge in the matchups could mean it would take as many as 96 points to make the playoffs out of the West.
It's all relative.
Terry Frei is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He is the author of the just-released "'77" and "Third Down and a War to Go."
