<
>

Breakdown: Leafs vs. Senators


5-on-5
Ottawa has scored more goals and allowed fewer than Toronto and is much better defensively so the Senators have an advantage at even strength.



Toronto power play vs. Ottawa penalty kill
The Maple Leafs tied for fourth in power play percentage during the regular season but will miss Owen Nolan, who is out with a knee injury. Offsetting that, though, is the fact that only four teams had a worse penalty-kill percentage on the road than Ottawa did.


Ottawa power play vs. Toronto penalty kill
The Senators had the NHL's best power play at 21.6 percent, and the main reason is that the second unit is as good as the first. Hard to go against that.


Goaltending
Ed Belfour has been here before and looks to be ready to go again. His numbers are not that great, but the Leafs have been poor defensively in front of him. They enter the playoffs as the 14th-ranked defensive unit among the 16 teams in the postseason. Because of that Belfour has had to be on his game all season.


Coaching
Toronto's Pat Quinn is a veteran warrior while Ottawa's Jacques Martin is a seasoned tactician. This series will be an emotional battle, and that's where Quinn gets the nod.


Intangibles
This series could come down to which team has the most men standing at the end. It will be a rough go, but Ottawa was one period from the finals last season and remembers just how how close it was. The Senators are hungry to get over the top.


Prediction
Toronto in seven.