ESPN Classic

There's an old saying that goes: "The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it."

The person who penned those words had to be a fisherman. They pretty much sum up the feelings of 50 anglers getting ready for the Bassmaster Classic. It's sort of a new feeling for many of these competitors.

The Classic is historically a summertime event, complete with fish that are locked into a summertime pattern, when deteriorating weather is a gift.

In a few weeks, though, when the Bassmaster Classic gets under way on Lay Lake in Birmingham, Ala., the weather could be the single biggest factor on who wins and how they do it. This is the second consecutive wintertime Classic, according to the calendar. But it could be the first from a weather standpoint.

"Right now, every thing is up to the weather. It will dictate which fish, spotted or largemouth, will dominate this event, and quite frankly depending on what it does will decide who wins,'' said Greg Hackney, competing in his fifth Classic.

Hackney is one of the top anglers in the world, noted as much for his mental approach to the game as his tactical approach. And according to him, it won't be the stars and planets lining up perfectly for an angler as much as it will be the sun and/or cold fronts.

"We're all thinking about it. I check the long-range forecast every day,'' Hackney said. "You can't really rely on it, but you have to look because so much is riding on it."

And in this Classic, the weather is about as predictable as the lead cat in a herd of felines. Everything from snow and ice to heat and floods is possible.

Mike Bolton of the Birmingham News reminds us just how unpredictable in his column from New Year's Eve.

"A Classic in Birmingham in February is a gamble," Bolton wrote. "In Alabama, you don't know what late February will bring.

"I have fished tournaments in Alabama in short-sleeved shirts that week. I've also had to break up the ice at the boat ramp to get a boat launched.

"It's scary to think about, but I remember one year when the Birmingham Boat Show, which comes annually the first week of February, was cancelled because of an ice storm.

"Even scarier is that the biggest snowstorm of our lifetime came in March 1993 several weeks after the Classic date.

"A few years ago, a Bassmaster event was held at Smith Lake in February. We were greeted with tornadoes one day and snow the next. The day that it snowed may have been the coldest I've ever been in my lifetime."

In the South, there's another old saying: "If you don't like the weather, just a wait a minute."

Even the "Old Farmer's Almanac" doesn't give a whole lot of hope for a comfortable day of fishing. That publication, which says it has an accuracy rate of 80 percent on long-range forecasts since the 1700s, calls for a chance of snow flurries, followed by sunny skies the week of the Classic.

With so many of the anglers in the Classic hailing from the south side of the Mason-Dixon line, these acute weather possibilities are on the top of their minds.

They don't have a choice, either.

"It could be a real tough bite and not much fun being out there,'' Denny Brauer said. "But for that much money, I'm sure everyone will keep their bait in the water."

But where?

The primary concern before any Classic is to put together a plan that will place an angler in contention on the final day of the event. In the standard Classic, cool snaps and rain are welcomed. That was even the case in 2006 at Lake Toho, where bass, even though it was February, were in a pre-spawn pattern and in some ways almost predictable, if bass can really be any more predictable than the weather.

This year, though, things are decidedly different. This Classic will likely be a wintertime affair and anglers competing in this one will have plenty to think about while planning for a run at the championship.

"I'm sure there are guys hoping and wishing that it will be warm and nice,'' said Jeff Kriet, competing in his fourth Classic. "And then there are those like me who are hoping for much worse conditions."

What? Hoping for terrible conditions! And he's not alone. Hackney is another weather grinch.

"Bad weather will automatically take 20 percent of the field out of the running,'' Hackney said. "It will simply mess them up so much mentally, they won't be able to get around it."

Kriet's expectations go beyond just hoping. He's spent the last month doing nothing but spending the coldest days that come along casting in front of a boat.

"You have to be acclimated to those conditions,'' Kriet said. "It's going to be 24 degrees in the morning, and I'll be on the water, working on those cold-water techniques, but at the same time getting my body used to performing in the worst conditions I can find."

But that's only half the equation. In the bigger picture, as anglers prepare for this Classic, they have to work on two sets of circumstances. One is warm, sunny conditions that could pull largemouth to the shallow water and in a position to be caught by the majority of the field. The other is brutally cold weather that will make this event about targeting spotted bass around deeper, main-lake structure.

"If it's warm, it will be won shallow,'' Hackney said. "If it's cold, it will be won deeper. And you have to have that figured out on day one. Right now, it's anybody's guess."

"I don't want to be fishing for spots if there is a warming trend,'' Kriet added.

Within those sets of circumstances are separate sets of scenarios revolving around spectator traffic. The colder, more brutal conditions could keep the throng of spectators off the water, but let it be nice and spectators (a Birmingham staple) could flood the water and additional factors to the catch rate.

"This is the number one bass city in the country'' Hackney said. "They will be on the water. But if it's snowing and 35 degrees, that just has a way of cutting down on the traffic."

But that's not the main reason Hackney and Kriet are hoping for colder, more brutal weather. Both believe those are the conditions they excel in.

"When it's really bad cold, I don't really fear anybody,'' Hackney said. "Who has an opportunity to win this Classic? Anybody who made it!

"But if it's really, really bad cold and miserable, then I have an advantage."

Come snow or high water.

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