Readers believe Reese shoo-in for AOY
With his victory last week in the Capitol Clash, Skeet Reese took a 107-point lead over Kevin VanDam in their duel for the Toyota Tundra Angler of the Year.
ESPNOutdoors.com asked readers on our main index page poll if they now consider Reese a shoo-in to win the title. With more than 1,000 responses, 64 percent said, yes he is.
Wait just a minute.
There's one Elite Series event left and Reese needs to finish 31st or better at the season-ending Sunshine Showdown at Lake Toho Sept. 13-16 in Florida to sew up the title.
Reese has 2,579 points; VanDam, who has three AOY titles, is second at 2,472. Both of them say it's not over.
"I've done everything I need to do to put myself in the position to win that title, but I haven't done it yet," Reese told writer Alan Clemons in a follow-up story to Potomac. "I know this lead doesn't mean anything.
"I will be stressed. I will be consumed thinking about Toho."
VanDam isn't about to give up either.
"As long as I've got a mathematical chance going into Florida, you never know what can happen," VanDam said. "You just never know. Lightning may strike."
Not many from VanDam's home state of Michigan see a storm over Reese. As of Friday, 52 percent of the voters from Michigan responded that they believe Reese is assured of winning AOY. In Reese's home state of California, 71 percent said they thought Reese would win.
In our caucus of Iowa, an important state for the presidential race and maybe for AOY, the early results show Reese is favored to win by 67 percent.
Reese holds the lead in about 30 states, is said to not be a certainty in about 10, and it's split in the other 10.
Elite Series events are based on a 300-point system. The points descend in increments of five from the first through fifth spots, (300, 295, 290, 285, 280).
Sixth through 10th is divided by four-point increments (276, 272, 268, 264, 260).
Three points separates the 11th through 15th finishers (257, 254, 251, 248, 245).
From 16th through 99th, there are two-point increments (243, 241, etc.).
For 100th and the balance of the field, one point is awarded.
Anglers must weigh a fish in the tournament to receive points for the event. For ties, the points for those positions are added and split. End-of-year point tiebreakers are determined by total weight from full field days for season.
Also, leaders at the end of each day of an event receive five bonus points. Reese's wire-to-wire victory in the Capitol Clash garnered 320 points. Reese's extra 15 points (of course the winner will get 305 because he's leading the final day) could loom large.
If lightning were to strike Reese and he didn't score a point in the Sunshine Showdown, VanDam would need only to finish 87th for 107 points to secure a tie with Reese.
If VanDam were to win wire to wire for the maximum 320 points and push his total to 2,792, Reese would need to finish 31st (213 points) to tie.
Reese knows he has to stay close to VanDam.
"Kevin's one guy you definitely don't want to piss off. I try to be as nice to him as I can," Reese said at the Capitol Clash where he ended a run of second-place finishes. "But it's not over until it's over. I'll be wound up tight, on pins and needles going into Toho."
History isn't on Reese's side at Toho, where he has an average finish of 67th. VanDam has an average finish of 14th there.
That disparity of 67th (140 points) and 14th (248 points), if followed next month, would give VanDam the 108-point edge he'd need for a one-point victory.
Last year in the Bassmaster Classic on Lake Toho, VanDam finished fifth while Reese was 24th. In a 2005 event on Toho, VanDam took 12th while Reese was 18th. Reese has finishes of 153rd, 105th and 97th there, while VanDam's lowest was 26th.
Yet Reese has been dialed in this season, and besides winning an event, Angler of the Year has been his main focus.
"I've got one other goal in mind," he said after winning, "and it's the crown jewel of bass fishing as far as I'm concerned — and that's the Angler of the Year title … I want the trophy and the title, because to me that means everything."
Most of our readers think Reese will hold on, but polls have been wrong.
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