ESPN Sprint Cup

ESPN.com preseason rank: No. 1

2009 Outlook

If he so desired, Carl Edwards could stand up and give us his Sally Field impression: "I can't deny the fact that you like me. Right now. You like me."

The NASCAR reporters at ESPN.com like Edwards, at least for his skills as a racer. He's our selection to win the 2009 Sprint Cup title.

"I hope we're going to pick up right where we left off," Edwards said. "But I do believe that it's hard to say who,10 months from now, is going to win because this thing is just unpredictable."

But predictions come with the territory, and we're not alone. Edwards is the consensus pick from the NASCAR writers and broadcasters. In fact, he won by a landside. In a NASCARMedia.com poll, Edwards received 70 first-place votes to only 37 for Jimmie Johnson.

So the man who has won three consecutive Cup titles and has dominated the competition in the Chase format loses in the preseason predictions to a guy who never has won a Cup championship.

What gives? How can that be? Where's the respect for the three-time champ?

It's nothing against Johnson, a superb racer and good guy liked by all, but two things factor into the equation.

It's human nature to want someone new to win. And it's the law of averages. Johnson can't do this forever, can he? The odds of winning four consecutive Cup championships can't be good since no one in history ever has done it.

So you pick the next best guy. Clearly, that's Edwards.

"If you look at the way they ended last year, they were the hot team," said Cup driver Jeff Burton. "And Carl always is going to drive hard. If you had to pick a team, the 99 team certainly would be one to pick."

Edwards also wins the vote on style points. He's got the wow-factor vote after his dramatic move at Kansas last year, slapping the wall while trying to pass Johnson for the win on the last lap.

Edwards won the most races (nine); he won at the start of the season, he won in the middle and he won at the end, including the season finale and three of the last four.

That's the reasoning behind it, but all the Johnson fans can say a big "I told you so" if Edwards falls short and watches Johnson make history.

2008 Review

A wreck of his own making at Talladega during the Chase probably kept him from winning his first Cup title, but he won the hearts of many fans with his all-out racing style in the playoff events. Edwards was the runner-up in the Cup and Nationwide Series, winning the final race in both series.

He has a shot at the title if: Edwards doesn't hurt himself by being too aggressive, on and off the track. And he and crew chief Bob Osborne don't allow their argumentative nature to get out of hand.

He won't win the title because: Edwards takes too many chances in key situations with a top-5 finish on the line. Or if he has trouble when the team switches to the new Ford engine during the season.

-- Terry Blount