How silly will Silly Season get?
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- NASCAR's Silly Season is upon us, and it could get really silly before it's over.
And the silliness isn't restricted to drivers.
The future of organizations with manufacturers and sponsors is more of an issue than ever -- and in some ways bigger than where Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick or even Danica Patrick lands.
OK, maybe not Patrick, but it's big.
Richard Petty Motorsports, Red Bull Racing and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing officials have said they are talking to manufacturers besides those to which they are tied. Changes could reshape the manufacturer landscape, which has been somewhat stable since Toyota joined the Sprint Cup Series three years ago.
It also could figure into driver moves and where sponsors go. Martin Truex Jr. said last week that the stability of Toyota played a role in his decision to move from EGR (Chevrolet) to Michael Waltrip Racing next season.
Tony Stewart certainly didn't hide the fact that he wanted to get back to Chevrolet when he topped the 2008 Silly Season charts by leaving Joe Gibbs Racing to become the owner-driver of Stewart-Haas Racing.
Truex was the first piece of this year's Silly Season puzzle to fall. What will happen next is anybody's guess. There are a lot of rumblings, some with a bit of truth to them and others simply rumors.
Harvick and Kasey Kahne, each with one year left on his contract, reportedly want out of the final year of their respective deals. Should one or both get out of those deals, things really could get silly.
Then there's the whole Patrick soap opera. Is she serious about leaving the IndyCar Series for NASCAR, or is she just playing the good ol' boys to get more money in open-wheel?
Sound silly? That's what the Silly Season, which has become a season unto its own like recruiting in college football, is all about.
Here are five things to look out for as the silliness unfolds:
1. RPM, Red Bull and EGR?
Richard Petty Motorsports is the most likely to jump ship. Its deal with Dodge is over, and financial support hasn't been there since Chrysler filed for bankruptcy.
Toyota is the top candidate to step in. RPM already has a deal with Toyota-based Braun Racing for the Nationwide Series, which many perceive as the first step in moving to the foreign manufacturer.
But don't pencil in a switch just yet. RPM has been discussing a potential manufacturer change for more than a year now. Also, remember that Dodge plans to stay in the sport with Penske Racing, and it's doubtful it would want to put all its effort into one organization.
There's also a long-standing relationship between co-owner Richard Petty and Dodge.
Then there is the Red Bull factor. General manager Jay Frye was scheduled to be in Austria this week to meet with team officials about manufacturer options and a new deal for driver Brian Vickers. Frye has a relationship with Hendrick Motorsports, so a move to Chevrolet with an HMS alliance is a good possibility.
All this should become clear in the next two weeks. If Red Bull's two-car operation bolts, Toyota definitely will want a replacement to maintain its goal of representing about one-quarter of the garage. Picking up RPM would not only fill the loss but also expand that total number -- if RPM maintains its four teams.
Keeping four teams isn't a given for RPM, which still needs sponsor help on A.J. Allmendinger's car. But that easily could be resolved if Elliott Sadler disappeared and his sponsors moved to the No. 44.
And remember, RPM was ready to replace Sadler with Allmendinger before this season until Sadler threatened legal action.
That brings us to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. The organization is at the bottom of Chevy's totem pole of financial support, so if another manufacturer steps forward, at least the Chip Ganassi side might be swayed to change.
Here's the problem. EGR gets engines from Earnhardt Childress Racing, and there are no plans for the Richard Childress side to switch from Chevrolet. Plus, the Earnhardt side of the equation has a long-standing relationship with Chevrolet that co-owner Teresa Earnhardt isn't likely to break.
The good news for EGR is it has solid sponsorship in Target for Juan Pablo Montoya's car in 2010 and half sponsorship in Bass Pro Shops for the No. 1 car being vacated by Truex.
At least that's what EGR officials are saying. There are those who insist Bass Pro Shops will get out of its deal and move to Ryan Newman's car as a secondary sponsor with U.S. Army.
Who will fill the No. 1 car's seat vacated by Truex is anybody's guess. EGR officials insist they'll continue to develop Aric Almirola in the No. 8 that currently is parked thanks to lack of sponsorship.
Maybe they could work out a deal for Sadler, who might be the best talent available if he's let go and Kahne and Harvick stay put.
2. Keselowski's future?
Keselowski said in May that he wanted to drive for Hendrick Motorsports or at least an organization with HMS support. Rick Hendrick has suggested SHR or a JR Motorsports Nationwide team elevated to Cup as options.
Here's what I've been told. SHR hasn't had a conversation with Keselowski about a third car, even though Stewart is open to adding a team. Dale Earnhardt Jr. says there's only a 10 percent chance JR Motorsports will move to Cup unless a sponsor steps forward, and that isn't likely unless he's in the car.
Red Bull could be an option if it moves to GM and expands to three teams, which means an associate sponsor would have to be found.
Penske Racing also reportedly is interested in Keselowski to replace David Stremme, but that doesn't make sense if the 25-year-old driver re-signs a Nationwide deal with JR Motorsports as he insists he is close to doing.
JR Motorsports is with Chevy, and Penske is with Dodge. The two don't mix in a world where manufacturers and sponsors rule.
Unless they decide to get silly, that is.
3. Kahne and Harvick?
Kahne and Harvick have been rumored as candidates for a third driver at Stewart-Haas Racing at some point in the past month. Both are friends of Stewart's. Both have contracts with sponsors that run through next season.
A source close to Harvick says that he indeed wants out but that it is unlikely team owner Richard Childress would grant the driver and his sponsor, Shell/Pennzoil, a release in today's economic climate.
Still, Harvick would make sense for SHR. According to those close to the situation, no driver is closer to Stewart in the garage. He also would give Stewart access to his Nationwide Series program, for which Stewart and Newman already drive on a part-time basis.
That could be valuable should Stewart decide to develop a driver such as, say, Patrick.
Harvick also has sponsor appeal, which is almost as important as talent today. SI.com reported that Shell/Pennzoil is in the final year of its contract with RCR and would be a candidate to move to SHR with Harvick. Don't count on it. Multiple sources said the Shell deal indeed runs through 2010.
That Harvick would want out also makes sense. He is having a dreadful season -- 25th in points -- and hasn't won a race since the Daytona 500 to open the 2007 season.
His situation is somewhat like that of Newman, who, after several frustrating seasons, left the only Cup team for which he had driven to join Stewart this season. The difference is Newman's contract was up at Penske Racing.
Kahne just wants to drive somewhere he can compete for wins and a championship. RPM seems to be headed in that direction, even though the manufacturer hasn't been decided.
Kahne ranks eighth in points after posting his fifth top-10 in the past eight races this past weekend at Chicagoland. He was so excited after the third-place finish that he said the power with the new Dodge engines makes RPM "as good as" Hendrick Motorsports.
That might be a stretch, but Kahne would make sense for SHR. He is one of the top sponsor draws in the garage and shares an open-wheel background with Stewart, who came to Victory Lane to congratulate him when he collected his first road course win last month at Sonoma, Calif.
However, it is unlikely RPM would let its most marketable driver go, so this silliness may be futile.
4. Roush Fenway reduction
Sometime soon, we'll learn which of the five drivers at Roush Fenway Racing must leave for the organization to comply with NASCAR's four-driver limit in 2010.
All fingers point to Jamie McMurray, whose contract expires after this season. He likely will be offered a deal at Yates Racing, which basically is an extension of Roush.
If it's not McMurray, it'll be David Ragan, who is having a disappointing season at 30th in points. Roush's other three drivers -- Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle -- have contracts that run through at least next season.
This move won't cause a domino effect in the garage unless the odd driver out opts not to slide to Yates. That likely won't happen.
"The media has portrayed whatever team gets moved from Roush to Yates as being a loser or as it being a demotion," McMurray said recently. "It's not played out that way among the five drivers here. I don't know that anyone is like, 'Gosh, that's just going to be devastating.'"
McMurray says it's not that big a deal and he's not worried about it, so this shouldn't be all that silly.
5. And how about Danica?
Patrick certainly created a buzz when she visited Stewart-Haas Racing on Monday.
SHR spokesman Mike Arning said the IndyCar Series sweetheart has had an open invitation to tour the facility since a year ago when Stewart announced his intentions to become a driver-owner there. In other words, don't read too much into it.
That's probably good advice. Had this been a serious recruiting visit, it's doubtful we all would have known about it less than 24 hours after the fact. Remember, Stewart sneaked in candidates for management after dark last year to avoid a media circus.
Also, Stewart wasn't there. He was in Atlanta for a tire test.
Stewart also isn't about to throw a driver with no stock car experience into a third car without a commitment to developing in the Nationwide Series, and he has expressed no interest in forming a Nationwide team.
"I don't know that she's ever driven a heavy race car," Stewart said earlier this month at Daytona. "If it's something she wants to do, she has to make the commitment to do it. … You aren't just going to show up once in a while and be good."
Patrick says NASCAR is an option, but only if she can land a top ride. Hendrick Motorsports, Roush Fenway and Joe Gibbs Racing all have been mentioned, and Stewart-Haas also falls into the category of top rides. HMS doesn't have an opening, which brings sister team SHR into play.
Roush Fenway also doesn't have an opening, and JGR would have to expand.
Many believe Patrick is using NASCAR to hike her price in IndyCar. They don't believe she is ready to go from competing for wins to competing to make the field, or willing to make the commitment of a full Nationwide schedule.
But as long as she's floating around Cup garages in North Carolina, she'll create a stir and make this silly season silly for all.
David Newton covers NASCAR for ESPN.com. He can be reached at dnewtonespn@aol.com.
