ESPN Sprint Cup

NASCAR rolled into New England this weekend, not too far from ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn. That meant that ESPN.com's resident Eliminator got to head to his first race of the year. Always a good time when you get sunburned and rained on in a span of just a couple hours.

Jeff Gordon was making a little run through the field, running up to second. But the rain mixed things up, and before you knew it, guys like Michael Waltrip and J.J. Yeley were running in the top five. I don't think any predictions stood much of a chance.

And speaking of predictions not standing a chance, this weekend the series goes back to Daytona. Nothing like racing at Daytona on Fourth of July weekend, and hopefully the finish shapes up like the past few at Daytona.

All it takes is a push at the right time, just like the previous three Daytona winners (Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Kevin Harvick), to put yourself in the record books. It was only two weeks ago that David Gilliland came oh-so-close to his first-career win.

This weekend, it could be Gilliland again. Or maybe his dad Butch Gilliland. Or noted outlaw Butch Cassidy. Or the Partridge Family's David Cassidy. Or maybe David Ragan is more likely.

That was fun, but I should probably get to work now. With the withdrawal of Dario Franchitti, only 45 drivers will head to Florida this weekend, but only one can be a winner, so let's get it started.

Trivia break! With all the surprise winners possible at Daytona, it begs the question: Who was the last first-time winner at Daytona?

To get us started, the last 11 Daytona winners in even-numbered years, dating back to 1998, all finished in the top 16 in the previous Daytona race. It's easy enough to go back and find those drivers from the Daytona 500, minus the now-retired Dale Jarrett. We're down to 15.

Trivia break! Didn't give you much time to think about the question this week, because the answer's going to be revealed in the next question. But in 2003, Greg Biffle conserved fuel and took home his first Cup win at Daytona.

Dating back to Bill Elliott's win in 1988, every winner of the July race at Daytona, with the lone exception of Biffle's upset win in 2003, finished in the top dozen in the last race at Talladega. That'll take out, strangely, Biffle, along with Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch and others. Down to six.

Feeling loopy? Well, as long as NASCAR has had its loop data, every winner of the July Daytona race has gone into the race ranked ninth or better in driver rating. That takes out four more, including former race winners Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Burton.

Down to the final two, but I don't like ties. So, how about this parity streak? Since Carl Edwards went back-to-back in the second and third races of the season, we haven't had a manufacturer win two straight races all season. That's bad news for Kurt Busch's Penske teammate and Daytona 500 champion Ryan Newman, but good news for one driver.

It's just been his year so far, so look for Kyle Busch to add another chapter at Daytona. Remember, the numbers don't lie.

Eliminator breakdown

1. The last 11 Daytona winners in even-numbered years finished in the top 16 in their previous Daytona race. (30 eliminated, 15 remaining)
   Drivers Eliminated: AJ Allmendinger, Dave Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Patrick Carpentier, Carl Edwards, David Gilliland, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Travis Kvapil, Terry Labonte, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Michael McDowell, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Paul Menard, Juan Pablo Montoya, Joe Nemechek, David Ragan, David Reutimann, Scott Riggs, Boris Said, Johnny Sauter, Regan Smith, Martin Truex Jr., Michael Waltrip, Jon Wood, J.J. Yeley.
   

2. Since 1988, every July Daytona winner, except Greg Biffle, finished in the top 12 the previous Talladega race. (Nine drivers eliminated, six remaining)
   Drivers Eliminated: Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Sam Hornish Jr., Kasey Kahne, Bobby Labonte, Elliott Sadler, Reed Sorenson, Tony Stewart.
   

3. Since loop data started, every July Daytona winner was ranked in the top nine in driver rating entering the race. (Four drivers eliminated, two remaining)
   Drivers Eliminated: Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Robby Gordon, Brian Vickers.
   

4. No manufacturer has won back-to-back race since Carl Edwards won the second and third races of the season. (One eliminated, one remaining)
   Driver Eliminated: Ryan Newman.
   

5. And your winner is: Kyle Busch.

Matt Willis is a studio researcher at ESPN.