ESPN Sprint Cup

Hey there, NASCAR fans.

I hope you all read last week's column on Auto Club Speedway, because I picked Jimmie Johnson, who had one of the more dominating races of the season. Allow me to indulge myself for a moment.

BAM!

Now that it's out of my system, let's move on.

We're coming into a prime time of the sports year. Football, in all its forms (with the exception of the Arena League) is starting up. Baseball has caught pennant-race fever (treatable with some aspirin). Golf has something called the FedEx Cup. But I'll still take the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup.

However, just to be safe, I'm going to make sure I have fresh batteries in the remote, room on the DVR and some chilled beverages ready for consumption. Not only is this a crowd-pleasing, accurate race predictor, but it has also become a public service, readying dedicated sports fans for the busiest time of the year.

Or it could just be the regular, old Eliminator. It's really your call. I could go either way.

So, as is my custom, I'll take the entry list for this weekend's Chase cutoff race at Richmond International Raceway and find reasons why all but one of them will go home unhappy Saturday night. I guess, that is, with the exception of the 12 Chasers. Let's find ourselves a winner, via The Eliminator.

But first …

Trivia break! Joey Logano will attempt his Cup debut this weekend in the No. 02 car. Nobody's ever won in the 02, but four drivers have finished second. Who was the most recent to do so?

OK, a streak of 188 races is probably sufficient, right? Well, it's been 188 races since Greg Biffle won the July race at Daytona in 2003, becoming the last winner who had missed a race previously in the season. So I feel safe taking out everyone who hasn't started all 25 Cup races this season. That leaves just 30 full-timers.

How about a little short-track love? The past five Richmond winners each finished in the top 10 in the most recent Martinsville race. We flash back to the spring and allow the top 10 to move forward. That knocks out another 20.

Here's a nice streak. Dating back to 1994, there have been 14 different winners in the past 14 fall Richmond races. That streak dates back to Terry Labonte and includes Ernie Irvan, Rusty Wallace and Ricky Rudd. None of them will be racing Saturday night, but we can take out the four who will. Just six to go.

Finally, each of the past four Sprint Cup Series winners finished seventh or better in that race the previous season. Five of the six drivers remaining couldn't make the cut there, which leaves just one.

Trivia break! Ryan Newman, in the first race at Kansas in 2001, finished runner-up to Jeff Gordon while driving the No. 02 car.

This week, look for Denny Hamlin to improve on his back-to-back third-place finishes and take the win at Richmond. A bubble driver? Not anymore. Remember, the numbers don't lie.

Eliminator breakdown

1. There have been 188 races since the last winner who missed a race earlier in the season. (16 drivers eliminated, 30 remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: AJ Allmendinger, Dave Blaney, Patrick Carpentier, Bill Elliott, Joey Logano, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Michael McDowell, Joe Nemechek, Kyle Petty, Tony Raines, Scott Riggs, Johnny Sauter, Ken Schrader, Regan Smith, Reed Sorenson.

2. The past five Richmond winners finished in the top 10 in the last Martinsville race. (20 drivers eliminated, 10 remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, David Gilliland, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Sam Hornish Jr., Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Travis Kvapil, Bobby Labonte, Paul Menard, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman, David Ragan, David Reutimann, Elliott Sadler, Martin Truex Jr., Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip.

3. There have been 14 different winners in the past 14 fall Richmond races. (Four drivers eliminated, six remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart.

4. The past four Sprint Cup winners finished in the top seven in that race the previous year. (Five drivers eliminated, one remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears.

5. And your winner is: Denny Hamlin.

Matt Willis is a studio researcher at ESPN.