ESPN Sprint Cup

Well, folks, it's Chase time. A very nice time indeed.

And it's also a very nice time to check out my ESPN.com article on what would happen if there was a Chase in every season since the modern points system came into use in 1975. That's right, my cheap plug this week … is plugging me!

Let's keep the cheap plugs going and hope it affects my salary. I hope you've also been watching the Classic NASCAR races on ESPN Classic this week. Always like a good throwback, NASCAR style.

You know, a lot of people ask me from time to time, do I just use Eliminator tactics to pick NASCAR winners, or can it be useful in day-to-day life? Then I make the point that it's not even really all that useful for NASCAR, unless you ignore all those winners I've picked this season. That's right.

But, it's true, I do use The Eliminator theory in daily life. Dinner choices, picking out clothes and the like are all made much easier when you simply take out all the choices that just won't work.

Want a piece of advice from your favorite Eliminator? Don't use it in dating. Girls don't like to hear that they've been taken out of the race based on some minor statistic that I've managed to dig up. Likewise, they also don't like to hear that you picked them because you found the least wrong with them.

In a related note, anybody interested in dating The Eliminator should write to me c/o ESPN.

But enough of my personal ad. You're here to find a winner for this week. I'll do what I can to give you one. This is, in fact, The Eliminator.

Trivia break! Joey Logano will again attempt his Cup Series debut this week. If he wins, he'll be the quickest to his first win in the modern era, and the youngest of all time. Who currently holds those records?

First of all, think all the way back to last weekend at Richmond. That's because the past six winners of the fall New Hampshire race finished in the top 15 in the previous week's Cup race. That will take out all but 14. It would be 15 but Aric Almirola's in for Mark Martin this week.

Bristol and New Hampshire don't have a lot in common, but there is a correlation between the two. The past five New Hampshire winners and 10 of the past 11 finished in the top 15 in the last Bristol race. The only exception in that time is Ryan Newman in 2005. So let's take out the five drivers who weren't in the top 15 in Thunder Valley. That leaves a mere nine.

Let's take out yet another five with this tidbit: The Cup Series might not be heading to Dover until next week, but Dover is important this week. Six of the past seven Loudon winners finished eighth or better in the most recent Dover race, the only exception being Kurt Busch in his rain-aided victory earlier this season. That will leave just four drivers in contention for the win, all of them Chasers.

Variety's been key lately at New Hampshire. There have been seven different winners in the past seven New Hampshire races. I like that streak to continue this week, but it will take out only one additional driver, leaving us still with three.

To finish out this week's Eliminator, let's flash back to a stat I used last week. The past five Sprint Cup winners this season finished no worse than seventh in last year's edition of the race, including three straight repeat winners. Only one of the remaining drivers was in the top seven last year at New Hampshire, but first …

Trivia break! Logano will be looking to break a couple of records this weekend. Jamie McMurray holds the modern-era Cup Series record by winning in just his second career start. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch, with his first win in 2005, was the youngest winner of all time at age 20.

This week, look for a driver to get his Chase off to the right start. The Eliminator likes Jeff Gordon to get his first win of the year in the Chase opener. Remember, the numbers don't lie.

Eliminator breakdown

1. The past six fall New Hampshire winners finished in the top 15 in the last race. (32 drivers eliminated, 14 remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Dave Blaney, Patrick Carpentier, Bill Elliott, David Gilliland, Robby Gordon, Sam Hornish Jr., Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Travis Kvapil, Bobby Labonte, Joey Logano, Carl Long, Chad McCumbee, Michael McDowell, Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Juan Pablo Montoya, Joe Nemechek, Ryan Newman, David Ragan, Tony Raines, Scott Riggs, Elliott Sadler, Johnny Sauter, Ken Schrader, Regan Smith, Reed Sorenson, Martin Truex Jr., Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip.

2. The past five and 10 of the past 11 New Hampshire winners were in the top 15 in the last Bristol race. (Five drivers eliminated, nine remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Casey Mears, David Reutimann.

3. Six of the past seven New Hampshire winners finished in the top eight in the last Dover race. (Five drivers eliminated, four remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart.

4. There have been seven different winners in the past seven New Hampshire races. (One driver eliminated, three remaining)
   Driver eliminated: Kyle Busch.

5. The past seven NSCS winners this year finished in the top seven in that race last season. (Two drivers eliminated, one remaining)
   Drivers eliminated: Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards.

6. And your winner is: Jeff Gordon.

Matt Willis is a studio researcher at ESPN.