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EA Track Preview - Indianapolis

NASCAR Now's Rusty Wallace previews the legendary Indianapolis Motor Speedway

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EA Track Preview - Indianapolis

I don't need to tell you that Indianapolis is a big deal. I mean, ESPN is even sending me there.

But there's a buzz across NASCAR this week, and the off week only heightened the anticipation of heading to the Brickyard. The track is arguably the most hallowed ground in all of auto racing. Win there, and you find yourself in the history books forever. And you can always say you're an Indianapolis winner.

It doesn't quite work that way with researchers, although I'm sure I'm one of just a handful ESPN has sent to research from Indy.

But I thought that with this special race, it was about time to dust off an old game that my longtime readers hopefully will remember and cherish. And if you're not a longtime reader, get on board now; I'm still taking applications for my bandwagon. In fact, my bandwagon will be renamed the Party Wagon. Get on board!

A big race like the Brickyard calls for The Eliminator. Let me remind you how this bad boy works. Everybody will pick winners for Indianapolis. Some picks will have justification, others will be pulled out of a hat. But I do things a little differently.

I look at the 47-driver entry list and find reasons 46 of those drivers just cannot win Sunday. The one remaining, by process of elimination, just has to be the man kissing the bricks at day's end.

First of all, this is Indianapolis. There's prestige and history galore. It takes a driver with some history to win here. In the 15 previous NASCAR races at Indianapolis, there has never been a first-time winner. That will take out 14 drivers from the entry list who've never taken a checkered flag.

Long straightaways requiring some serious horsepower. Tight, flat turns necessitating good brakes and car control. Sound familiar? Well, I could be talking about Indianapolis, but I also could be talking about Pocono. In fact, since 1998, every Indianapolis race winner also finished in the top 12 in the previous Pocono race. That takes out 23 more, including Mark Martin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. This leaves us with 10.

Although there's an off week leading into Indy, momentum has a history of carrying over here. Ten of the past 11 Indianapolis winners finished eighth or better in the previous Sprint Cup race. Six of those remaining are gone, including Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Indy dark horse Juan Pablo Montoya.

Now down to the final four -- two sets of teammates with Tony Stewart/Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson/Jeff Gordon. Now, let's focus on another flat track, Phoenix. They haven't run a spring race at Phoenix for long, but in each of the past three seasons, the Indy winner finished seventh or better in the earlier Phoenix race. Newman and Gordon were further back than that, so we have our last two.

Down to Smoke and the three-time defending Series champ, two drivers who have alternated wins at Indy in the past four races. In NASCAR's history at the Brickyard, however, no driver has won back-to-back races. So Johnson is out, and the Smoke rises.

This weekend, I'll take Stewart to become just the second owner/driver to kiss the bricks at Indy, joining Ricky Rudd in 1997. Remember, the numbers don't lie.

Eliminator breakdown

• There has never been a first-time winner at Indianapolis (14 drivers eliminated, 33 remaining).

Drivers eliminated: A.J. Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose, Dave Blaney, David Gilliland, Sam Hornish Jr., Paul Menard, Max Papis, David Ragan, Mike Skinner, Regan Smith, Reed Sorenson, Scott Speed, David Stremme, Mike Wallace.

• Indianapolis winners since 1998 all have finished in the top 12 at the previous Pocono race (23 drivers eliminated, 10 remaining).

Drivers eliminated: John Andretti, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Derrike Cope, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bill Elliott, Robby Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Terry Labonte, Joey Logano, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Joe Nemechek, Elliott Sadler, Martin Truex Jr., Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip.

• Ten of the past 11 Indy winners finished in the top eight in the previous Cup race (six drivers eliminated, four remaining).

Drivers eliminated: Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Juan Pablo Montoya, David Reutimann.

• The past three Indianapolis winners finished in the top seven earlier in the season at Phoenix (two drivers eliminated, two remaining).

Drivers eliminated: Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman.

• Nobody has won back-to-back races at Indianapolis (one driver eliminated, one remaining).

Driver eliminated: Jimmie Johnson.

• And your winner is: Tony Stewart.