Plenty of questions in these days after the Car of Tomorrow's debut season
After Jimmie Johnson won another Nextel Cup in 2007, what can we expect in 2008? Specifically, what's going to happen when every race next year features the Car of Tomorrow?
Years ago, Junior Johnson was asked what he thought it took to be a great race car driver. His answer was short and representative of that era of NASCAR.
"Be ready to die," he said. It was an accepted risk for drivers back then. But we have become more cautious and concerned about the health of our racing heroes today. There has been a continuing -- though erratic -- crusade to make the sport safer for the competitors since its rough-and-tumble days when safety was secondary to everything else.
Every time someone gets seriously injured or killed an effort is made to prevent that particular event from ever happening again. The list of safety innovations over the years is endless and ranges from items such as: window nets. Fire resistant driving gear, fuel cells and on-board fire extinguishers, etc. in the early days to the newer safety seats and harnesses, SAFER walls and the HANS device in the more modern era. Just look at any photo of any driver from the previous eras and compare that to a driver and his safety equipment today. You will see that what we take for granted today was probably considered revolutionary during its time of introduction.
Enter the Car of Tomorrow. The culmination of NASCAR's first really serious attempt at making the sport truly safe for the drivers. Some are saying that the COT is a step backward instead of being a step forward. Others say it is not the answer to the question while others just don't want to change the status quo. It is the natural fear of the unknown and resistance to change that fuels their trepidation toward the COT. All of us have experienced it at one time or another in our lives. A change in our job or work routine causes us to become uneasy because it upsets our comfort level.
My interpretation of the COT is that it is NASCAR's attempt to step back into the future. To turn the clock back to gain more daylight so to speak. Every time we reset our clocks for daylight savings we have a period of adjustment to our daily routine. Racers are no different. They have spent many years and millions of dollars developing the current race car and they are familiar with its performance levels. They know what to expect from it. The COT starts the learning curve over again and they naturally don't like that.
The conclusion of the Nextel Cup race at Homestead this weekend will reflect many historic changes for NASCAR during the 2007 season. It will end one series sponsor's reign and begin a new one. It appears that it will add Jimmie Johnson's name to the elite list of repeat champions. We saw a foreign manufacturer enter the series for the first time. The migration of open wheel racers to NASCAR has increased.
In short, there were a number of great storylines from the season that will potentially change the sport in the future. But none compare to the impact the COT will have for generations to come. It is the single most important change in NASCAR that I can recall in my 28 years of involvement. It obviously will impact the on-track performances of the teams but its impact has the potential to reach far beyond that. NASCAR is in another period of evolution that will shape its future and its long-term success. The COT can help define the balance of power within the sport well into the future.
We have reached a point where about 75 percent of the field is now controlled by multi-team operations. Just do the math. Eleven four-team operations can fill the entire field. NASCAR is still the 800-pound gorilla but a bunch of smaller ones are now milling around together in the garage. The strength represented in their number is being somewhat diluted by the arrival of the COT. NASCAR has regained the control over the competition in its premier series and thereby has diminished the power of the big multi-team operations.
For example, Rick Hendrick has been very vocal about his opposition to the COT, which would seem ironic when you note that his teams won nine of the COT races this year -- including the first five. But when you look at the Hendrick operation's overall statistics for 2007 you see that his four teams have won half of all the races run so far this year. A statistic that is mind boggling to me. The 48 and 24 teams alone have accounted (to date) for 16 wins, have led 25 percent of all the laps run (almost 2,600), have a combined 40 top-five finishes, and have won six of the Chase races to date.
No wonder he wants to keep the status quo. So would I.
Coincidentally the Hendrick operation probably has the biggest investment in technology with the old car, so they stand to lose the most with the switch. Hendrick has 50 or so engineers on staff, so one wonders what they will be doing in the future. There just might be a correlation with his objections, investments and potential loses.
I believe that for the first time in its history -- at least starting out -- NASCAR knows more about a particular car's design and performance characteristics than the competitors do. They are hoping they have and can hold the technological edge over the teams with the COT.
Which means it should be easier for smaller teams to compete in the future and therefore easier for new owners to attempt to integrate into the series. The gap between the haves and the have-nots has been narrowed by the COT.
Oh it's for sure that, if I were a driver, I would want to have a Hendrick Motorsports logo on my uniform in the 2008 season because they have a jump on refining the COT with their research and development efforts to date. Just look at Hendrick's 2007 record with the COT. They have dominated with nine wins. But it won't take long for the other teams to catch up with them and begin spreading the wins and the wealth around more. Plus NASCAR now has the ability to assist the smaller teams with their collective learning curves because of NASCAR's in-house development knowledge of the COT.
NASCAR's stated purpose in creating the COT is to build a safer car and to reduce the costs of competition. Their unstated goals were to regain control of the technology and to put on a better show, which benefits everybody involved.
Many of the teams and drivers have been complaining long and loud about the COT and its handling when compared with the old car. They are wasting their collective breath because NASCAR is not going to budge on any changes until they have researched them thoroughly and determined independently that any change would be for the collective betterment of the sport.
Until then, drivers need to learn to adjust. There is a definite power struggle going on behind the scenes between the bigger teams and NASCAR concerning what and when something can be done to the COT to make it better. It is going to be a very slow and painful process for any changes to be made to the COT. First of all, nothing is going to happen until Goodyear finishes its testing and develops what it considers to be a competitive tire for the COT. A tire that is designed specifically for the COT's handling characteristics may solve many of the teams' complaints and reduce their anxiety over it. If it doesn't then NASCAR will have to cross that bridge when it comes to it. And NASCAR is not known for crossing bridges without checking the depth of the water first.
It is my belief that a truly talented driver can drive and be competitive in just about anything he sits down in. I once saw A. J. Foyt be invited to climb into a racing semi truck to try it out when that old series was around back in the 1980s. He went out and brushed the wall on his first lap and set the track record on his second lap. He had never sat in one before in his life! I've seen David Pearson jump into a car at some Saturday night bullring and do similar things within a few laps. If you are a talented race car driver then you can adapt to your circumstances and be successful. If you are a spoiled race car driver then you will tend to complain more about a challenge.
Famed Indycar driver Johnny Rutherford tried his hand at stock car racing back in the '80s. When asked which type of driving he preferred his response was that driving an Indycar was easy compared with driving a stock car. Asked to explain, he said that driving an Indycar was like driving a fine European sports car while driving a stock car was like driving a three-bedroom house with an attached two-car garage. He drove both types successfully.
My point is if a driver has the talent and the attitude then he will be successful in the COT. If he does not then he won't. It's really that simple.
I would bet the farm that older drivers such as Foyt and Richard Petty and Pearson, etc. (In their prime) could go out and consistently win over most of the current drivers if they competed in a COT. The COT is more like what they drove back then than what the current drivers are used to, so the advantage goes to the old guys. And believe me, I'm for any advantage us old guys can get! I've always said that old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill every time.
Foyt and Rutherford were champion-caliber open wheel drivers, but there were others such as Mario Andretti, Pancho Carter and Danny Sullivan, etc. who made the trek to NASCAR from their open wheel series over the years. The current influx of open wheel drivers is nothing new to NASCAR. It does, however, represent a stronger invasion than in the past.
Most of the open wheel boys have struggled to succeed in NASCAR over the years but, of late, such guys as Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne have made their marks in the premier series. It will be interesting to see how well they, along with their fellow open wheelers who are due to arrive full time on the scene, do in the COT in 2008. I believe the switch to the COT might help the new drivers because it will level the playing field more than if they were competing in the highly developed car that the COT replaces.
Of course I believe it will take more talent to drive the COT, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out next year. I liken the current drivers to being more like pilots operating sophisticated pieces of equipment that the engineers have defined and refined to perfection than drivers who feel the nuances of the car and adapt accordingly to make it go faster. As they say, the cream always rises to the top, but it will be interesting to compare this year's final top 20 with next year's final top 20. I'm betting they will be significantly different.
Numerous stories have been written about the physical differences between the COT and the current race car. There could no doubt be endless debates about which is better and which drivers could perform better in each type of car but basically it all boils down to the differences between placing your emphasis on aerodynamics or placing it on suspensions.
The current car is all about the emphasis on aerodynamics over suspension with its warped nose configuration and coil bound front suspension, etc. Where the COT, with it's boxier shape that is more similar to the car's street version, puts the emphasis back on the suspension system. Which is better can be debated extensively without a satisfactory resolution. No matter though because what you see is what you get with the COT. The body style is locked down as is the frame configuration so the era of aero manipulation is over in NASCAR. At least for the near future.
As stated earlier, one of NASCAR's publicly stated goals with the COT is to reduce the cost of racing for everyone. The verdict on the accomplishment of that goal will probably not be determined until some time late next year. The cost of building all new cars on the front end is a significant one for all of the teams. Plus the write-offs and losses they will absorb in disposing of the old cars and their ancillary parts will no doubt be staggering.
Additionally one of the major purported pluses of the COT may prove to be a major minus in the future. NASCAR has dictated and is enforcing very stringent construction rules on the COT that helps assure it will be a safer car but also increases a team's construction costs dramatically. Each frame must be inspected and OKed by NASCAR during the various stages of construction. If it is not exactly to spec (and we're talking in thousandths of an inch) then it is rejected and the team must start the process over again. This places a premium on having highly skilled welders and fabricators on staff. Whenever you use the words "highly skilled," dollar signs appear.
Failure to pass inspection can create costly delays and obvious added expenses just to get the cars built and approved by NASCAR. It stands to reason that, if NASCAR is going to be such a stickler about the construction of a new car then they will be just as strict on the repairs made to one that has been crashed.
Repairing a damaged car could prove to be more costly and time consuming than building an entirely new one. If that proves to be the case then there are some false economies built into the system because even though the teams will not have to keep as many cars in their fleet -- say 10 versus 16 -- they may end up building just as many during the year to replace a crashed or damaged one. To NASCAR's credit, the COT is, as Rusty Wallace puts it, built like a Sherman Tank, so how well it holds up in battle may determine how much the teams actually save over the year.
Another consideration is that the specifications for the COT are so much tighter that it might cost the teams more money to tweak it within the rules to gain a competitive advantage. It will, for sure, cost them more if they cross the line and cheat because NASCAR has already set the bar much higher on fines and penalties if a team is caught cheating with the COT. NASCAR is serious about holding the technology in line and the resulting costs in check so if you are going to play you'd better be ready to pay if caught.
So, after all is said and done, what should we look for during the 2008 season? Will the COT prove to be safer? Will the teams save money with it? Will there be a shake-up in the rankings as some teams and drivers figure things out while others flounder? Will Goodyear give the teams a better tire that works with the renewed emphasis on the suspension? Will NASCAR hold the line -- as they firmly state they will -- and make the teams work with what they have and not allow them to make any changes? Will the fans get a better show? Will the smaller teams gain back some of the disparity they have lost to the bigger teams? Will the open wheel boys have a more level playing field and therefore be more competitive with the established stars. Will some of the drivers now operating in the middle of the pack gain or lose finishing positions with the change? Will some of the stars struggle with adapting to the COT? Those questions and more place a lot of pressure on a little three-letter acronym to live up to its expectations.
And finally, don't call it COT any more! Because after this Sunday it becomes "the" NASCAR race car whether you like it or not. Personally, I like it. How about you? We really don't have any choice either way do we?
Bill Borden is a former championship winning crew chief who operated David Pearson's Racing School for many years.
