AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Carlos Zambrano has a 7.79 ERA and 1.60 WHIP after July the past two seasons.
The Cubs welcomed their "ace" right-hander into the fray Tuesday, but they might wish they hadn't. The Nationals pummeled him for eight runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings in his return from the disabled list. Going by game score (18), it was his worst performance all season, and worst since Sept. 19, 2008.
Though Zambrano has seemingly defied the odds against pitchers used to the extent he was at such an early age, the fact remains that after Aug. 1 last season, he was 2-2 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. People might remember him for the no-hitter he threw Sept. 14, but that one came on 11 days' rest due to a sore rotator cuff, meaning that not all that many fantasy owners even had him active for it. In addition, only one other time in his other eight post-Aug. 1 starts did he register a quality start. He was about as unreliable as a top-25 pitcher could be.
Back problems were what cost Zambrano nearly a month this year, and there's no saying he'll be able to pitch as effectively down the stretch as he did in the season's first four months, during which time he had a 3.36 ERA in 19 starts. He's certainly capable of maintaining that low an ERA, but the wear and tear on his arm over the years makes him a risk as the summer wanes.
Zambrano did hit his fourth home run of the season in the game, so his return wasn't entirely forgettable. That's irrelevant in fantasy, of course. If he has a strong outing or two in his upcoming starts, it might be smarter to peddle him -- even at only top-40 starter value -- than take a chance on him in these critical weeks.
Previous editions: Aug. 25: Zobrist keeps raking | Aug. 24: Ubaldo for Cy Young?
• If this week truly represents the end of Mat Latos' season, apparently he wants to go out with a bang. The rookie right-hander tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit baseball, the best start yet of his young career and the fourth quality start in his first eight turns. Latos is expected to make one more start Sunday at Florida, but after that the Padres are reportedly planning to shut him down for the year.
• Zack Greinke has had a standout fantasy season, ranking fourth among starting pitchers on the Player Rater in spite of his recent rash of bad luck, and eight of his 12 best career starts in terms of strikeouts coming into Tuesday's action had come this season. On Tuesday, though, the right-hander was flat-out dominant. He struck out a career-high 15 Indians en route to his 12th win, going eight innings and allowing two runs. Greinke ranks first in the American League in ERA (2.43) and complete games (5), and is second in strikeouts (197) and WHIP (1.12). Even with a full-year pace of only 16 wins, he might be the favorite for Cy Young honors.
• Maybe the "Joba Rules" aren't a good thing at all. Joba Chamberlain was pummeled for seven runs on nine hits in four innings versus the Rangers, the second consecutive time he has had a poor outing going on more than four days' rest. The right-hander did look his best in back-to-back-to-back starts in late July, but those were on regular rest, whereas in the month of August, when he has been shuffled around, he now has an 8.55 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in four starts. Chamberlain is probably going to remain a somewhat risky fantasy choice based on the way he's being used, and while it might have a positive effect on his long-term prospects (which is really an arguable point), it's sure looking foolish right now.
• Another day, another blown save for Brad Lidge, who with his Tuesday meltdown now has nine on the season in 34 opportunities. What's worse: He now has a 7.33 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, and opponents are batting .299 against him. The Phillies seem to lack a reliable alternative to Lidge, but that the right-hander is pitching so poorly makes him a closer fantasy owners just can't trust right now.
• Jimmy Rollins' full-season stats (.244 BA, .290 OBP, .420 slugging) might look terrible, but as he has always done, he's on a monstrous second-half tear. With his two-homer night, he's now a .276 hitter with 10 home runs and an .856 OPS in 37 games since the All-Star break, right in line with his .286/.812 career second-half rates. Rollins is now on pace for 23 homers and 32 steals, numbers that could, at his current performance level, rise to 25-27 and 35-37, and his batting average isn't as much of a problem as it was early on. Hope you've been patient with him!
Josh Willingham, Nationals
Willingham might be in the midst of the most impressive season by any player fantasy owners barely know about. He was 4-for-4 with two home runs, six RBIs, one walk and five runs scored Tuesday, bringing his season batting average up to .301 and his season homer pace to 28. Still, in spite of those numbers and his .986 OPS, he's only owned in 34.0 percent of ESPN leagues.
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Wainwright moved into a tie for the major league lead in wins with CC Sabathia with 15, and he flat-out dominated the Astros, shutting them out for eight innings on only three hits. It was his 12th consecutive quality start, and during his hot streak he's 7-3 with a 1.31 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 89 innings.
After Troy Tulowitzki's walk-off hit Tuesday night, the Rockies are now two games out of the NL West race, meaning that since June 3 they have made up 13ġ games in the division. So what does that mean for fantasy owners? Well, for one thing, it means no Rockies regulars being shut down due to innings caps so youngsters can get a look instead in September. It also means their starters' win potential is very real. Since June 3, Jorge De La Rosa has 12 wins, Ubaldo Jimenez nine, and Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis seven apiece.
• Facing a roster crunch due to injuries to outfielders Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, the Rockies opted to place Fowler on the 15-day disabled list with his bruised right knee, while optioning mop-up reliever Adam Eaton to Triple-A Colorado Springs. In their places, Colorado promoted Matt Murton and Eric Young Jr. from Colorado Springs, with Young the name fantasy owners need to know. The son of the ESPN analyst of the same name, "Junior" is a speedster who has amassed at least 46 steals in each of the past four minor league seasons, including 58 this year with a .299 batting average in 119 games. Typically a second baseman, Young has spent 11 games in center field in the minors this year, and made his big league debut there Tuesday, batting leadoff and going 1-for-4. Grab him if you need speed.
• The Giants placed Freddy Sanchez on the 15-day DL with a strained right shoulder, promoting Ryan Rohlinger from Triple-A Fresno to take his roster spot. Eugenio Velez, a .310 hitter with an .832 OPS in 37 games since the All-Star break, should take over the every-day second base duties.
• Chris Davis did beat fellow first-base prospect Justin Smoak back to Texas (OK, Smoak hasn't been there yet, but you get the idea), getting recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City after the Rangers placed Andruw Jones on the 15-day DL with a strained left hamstring. Davis batted .327 with a .939 OPS in 44 games for Oklahoma City, and more importantly he was more patient than before, drawing 25 walks in 194 plate appearances. If he can just keep that kind of performance up with the big club, he might be quite a sleeper in the final month-plus. He started at first base Tuesday and went 2-for-4 with one walk and zero strikeouts, a good start, and should see regular at-bats in that role for the foreseeable future.
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Brendan Roberts: I thought there was, and have been advocating for people to hang on to him. But then I read something in the past week that that knee still isn't right, and it's bothering him. With Jake Fox hitting, and currently no place to play him as long as Lee and Aramis are healthy, I think the Cubs will find opportunities to "rest Soriano's knee" plenty in the past six weeks. I never thought I'd say this, but in a shallow mixed league, yes, it's time to cut Alfie. There's no guarantee of a bounce-back as long as he's not right.
-- Full chat transcript
Wednesday's fantasy chat schedule:
Tristan H. Cockcroft, 11 a.m. ET
Eric Karabell, 3 p.m. ET
• We've already been assured that Giants catching prospect Buster Posey will not make his big league debut this season, but the odds are increasing by the day that he'll be the team's Opening Day catcher in 2010. He went 2-for-4 with his fifth home run in 30 games for Triple-A Fresno, and is batting .303 since being promoted there. With incumbent Bengie Molina a free agent after this season, Posey's quick ascension up the minor league ladder coincides rather nicely with Molina's expected departure. The Giants might pull an Orioles and bring in a veteran caddy like Gregg Zaun to ease Posey in next year (read: delay his "super-two" status), but Posey will almost assuredly be the team's every-day catcher at this time next year.
• Saunders isn't the only pitcher returning from the disabled list Wednesday; the Red Sox will activate Tim Wakefield in time to replace Brad Penny in their rotation. Wakefield tends to be a very streaky pitcher, and seeing that his pre-All-Star break streak was halted by his DL stint, it's probably a smarter move to bench him for evaluation purposes than immediately slot him back in.
• Rookie Derek Holland gets his toughest test yet when he's scheduled to battle the vaunted Yankees lineup at new Yankee Stadium, of all places. Holland is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his past five starts, and he has a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 games (six starts) on the road. But the Yankees did pound him in his first career start against them, and this is the offense with the game's best OPS versus left-handed pitchers. It's a high-risk proposition.
• For more on Wednesday's games, check Daily Notes.