Originally Published: April 16, 2008

Hopkins, Calzaghe expecting easy fights entering showdown

Bernard Hopkins is certain that Joe Calzaghe's first voyage across the Atlantic will unravel the British fighter and expose him as overhyped. Does Calzaghe have what it takes to prove otherwise?

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Houston By Graham Houston
Special to ESPN.com

Bernard HopkinsTom Hogan/Golden Boy PromotionsLove him or hate him, Hopkins can trade barbs -- both inside the ring and out -- with the best of them.
On Saturday, a British boxer looked starstruck in America as Clinton Woods lost in deferential fashion to Antonio Tarver.

This coming Saturday, a great deal more is expected from Britain's Joe Calzaghe when he meets Bernard Hopkins in a light heavyweight 12-rounder at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas (HBO, 9:45 p.m. ET).

This is Calzaghe's first fight in the U.S. and his first in this weight class after being a 168-pound champion for 10 years and 21 title defenses. It is his biggest fight and one that will decide his place in ring history, and it's hugely important to him that he wins.

Hopkins' legacy is assured. At 43, he has defied the aging process to remain a formidable proposition, big and strong at light heavyweight after draining himself to make the middleweight limit.

Calzaghe is the betting favorite at about 5-2 -- and it's easy to see why. At 36, he has comparative youth on his side, he is unbeaten and he has the fast-paced, busy, southpaw style that should give an older fighter a great deal of trouble.

Hopkins, though, says he loves being the underdog and points out that he is unbeaten against southpaws, including dominant wins over Tarver and Winky Wright (both were favorites) in his past two fights.

There is, one senses, the same air of certainty that Hopkins had as he headed into the fights with Tarver and Wright.

Hopkins-Calzaghe
AP Photo/Reed SaxonCalzaghe, right, is the betting favorite, but Hopkins can never be counted out.
Speaking to ESPN.com last week, Hopkins said: "Being the underdog is always something that has motivated Bernard Hopkins. Love me or hate me, like my quotes, like my sound bites or not, the bottom line is that Bernard Hopkins can flat-out fight, and he's normally right about what will happen in his fights. When you analyze these things, you've still got your opinions -- but watch how you bet."

The remarkable ring mechanic from Philadelphia will tell you that he respects Calzaghe, but he clearly believes he is a different class of fighter.

"He's going to get exposed as being an ordinary European fighter that's called great on the other side of the world but over here nobody knows him," Hopkins said. "They think it's the infomercial for him, but now the world gets to see the difference between American athletes and European athletes.

Yes, Calzaghe is the younger man -- although not at all a young fighter at 36 -- but Hopkins feels that dealing with age can simply be a mind-over-matter type of thing.

"People were calling me old 10 years ago," Hopkins said, "but they want you to think you're old, so a little cramp here or a little soreness here -- because you just happen to be human -- you start second-guessing yourself, and in that split second of hesitation you become old, you become vulnerable. But I'm a true, strong-minded man. It comes from my past that wasn't always good and molded me into something that Joe can never be -- and that doesn't make him a bad person either -- but at times like this, and events like this, that separates him from who I am, and that's what gets played out in every fight that I fight.

"I don't want to look like no jailhouse bully looking for my prey coming through the gates for the first time. So Joe, I hope you read this, please don't make me look like a bully."

The inference here is simple: Hopkins expects to dish out a beatdown similar to the ones he administered to Tarver and Wright.

In the Calzaghe camp, though, they are talking about not just a win but also one that will establish the Welsh fighter as a superstar in the U.S. as well as in the U.K.

Joe Calzaghe
AP Photo/ Ronda ChurchillJoe Calzaghe isn't one to be thrown off his game very easily.
Calzaghe's trainer and father, Enzo, told ESPN.com: "We know for a fact that Joe's got the tools to do the job that he's got to do. We're just waiting for the bell to ring and you're going to see a spectacular performance. Joe will attack. He doesn't want it to be a boring fight. What Hopkins will do, I do not know, but I can guarantee he will definitely be on the shy side of every bit of action."

Calzaghe himself talks of an easy win, although he seems to be concerned that Hopkins will use rough tactics, mentioning head butts and low blows. He says he will be much stronger and punching much harder, as a light heavyweight.

Yet while Calzaghe had huge wins at home in Britain against Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, he has not yet had to face the pressure of a big fight night in Las Vegas, of hearing boos as well as cheers when he is introduced.

Calzaghe seems to be strong mentally, but it could be unsettling if he is made to miss and starts getting hit by punches he wasn't expecting. Lacy was a straight-ahead, wide-punching, pressure fighter, easy for Calzaghe to figure out. Kessler, while strong and technically sound, boxed in a conventional way and did not offer a lot of imagination. Calzaghe was able to overcome him with versatility.

Hopkins is different, though: a savvy, tough, crafty veteran who is an expert at shutting down his opponents. He hits hard and fast, then moves away or gets inside to maul the other man around. Suddenly, a competent boxer can find himself fighting Hopkins' fight.

That's the prediction offered by Miami trainer Pat Burns, who guided Jermain Taylor to two very close wins over Hopkins.

"I think it's a very tough fight for Calzaghe," Burns told ESPN.com. "Hopkins is very cagey, and you know Calzaghe likes to move a lot. And I don't think that's the right style to beat Hopkins. When you're moving, you're working your angles and you're staying away, and Hopkins is very hard to hit -- it's very hard to get clean shots on Hopkins.

"There's no one in professional boxing who makes adjustments throughout the fight better than Hopkins. What he shows you in the first three rounds is different than [what] he shows you in four, five and six, and then what he shows you in the eighth and ninth are totally different, and then, when he finishes, that's something you haven't even seen. So the guy makes adjustments all the time. A 50-50 fight? I would say it's 60-40 -- with Hopkins winning."

What Calzaghe has shown, though, is the ability to rise to the occasion. In fights in which it seemed there was a very good chance he could lose -- against Lacy, Kessler and even the much more experienced Chris Eubank back in 1997 -- he has not only won, but done so convincingly. He is fast, and has great stamina and a very good chin. And even though he's not considered an especially big hitter, he can hurt people. Lacy looked beaten up after 12 rounds with Calzaghe, while Kessler was almost doubled up by a body shot.

Calzaghe's speed, his ability to punch from unusual angles and the authority of his blows might surprise even Hopkins. The psychological warfare that Hopkins employs -- including his "won't lose to a white boy" comment -- might not work on Calzaghe, who seems to have an unshakable belief in his own ability and strength of character.

In what will be a close, competitive contest, Calzaghe's ability to fight the full three minutes of every round should decide the fight.

Hopkins may have some big moments in which he will catch Calzaghe and perhaps hurt him. And his right hand is going to be a constant threat.

In the overall flow of the fight, however, if Calzaghe moves in and out, this way and that, and gets in with his quick punches and withstands Hopkins' heavier single hits, he'll win a hard-fought, close but deserved decision.

Graham Houston is the American editor of Boxing Monthly and writes for FightWriter.com.