Originally Published: October 14, 2008

Pavlik-Hopkins: Prefight analysis

Bert Sugar breaks down the strengths and weaknesses of Kelly Pavlik and Bernard Hopkins.

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By Bert Randolph Sugar
Boxing historian
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A look at the strengths and weaknesses of Kelly Pavlik and Bernard Hopkins ahead of their showdown at The Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City:

Strengths of both fighters

Pavlik
• Middleweight champion Pavlik possesses firepower in both hands, which he throws with leverage unseen since Tommy Hearns, both on the inside and from the outside.
[+] EnlargeKelly Pavlik and Jermain Taylor
Nelson Chenault/US PresswireKelly Pavlik's exceptional chin will come in handy against Bernard Hopkins.
• Pavlik uses his long left jab to set up his power right.
• Pavlik can effectively capitalize upon his opponent's mistakes -- as he did in his first fight against Jermain Taylor, when he countered Taylor's jab and blocked Taylor's wide, looping punches before unleashing his dynamite right.
• A durable fighter, Pavlik has extraordinary "chin whiskers" and amazing recuperative powers, which he demonstrated in both the Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor fights.

Hopkins
• A classic old-school fighter, Hopkins combines savvy and slickness with a determination to do anything to win.
Unstoppable
TV lineup
The schedule for the Top Rank-Golden Boy Promotions card Saturday night (HBO PPV, 9 ET) from Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J.:

• Light heavyweights: Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) vs. Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KOs), 12 rounds

• Featherweights: Steven Luevano (35-1-1, 15 KOs) vs. Billy Dib (21-0, 11 KOs), 12 rounds, for Luevano's title

• Middleweights: Marco Antonio Rubio (42-4-1, 37 KOs) vs. Enrique Ornelas (28-4, 18 KOs), 12 rounds, title eliminator

• Middleweights: Daniel Jacobs (10-0, 9 KOs) vs. Tyrone Watson (7-1, 3 KOs), 6 rounds

• A cagey fighter, Hopkins stands right in front of his opponent, fighting from a wide stance with both hands held high and chin held low -- all the better to give his opponent little to hit, especially with a solid shot.
• A tremendous all-around fighter with no glaring weaknesses, Hopkins has been able to outbox punchers and outpunch boxers -- wearing them down with punches to the body, both over and under their guards.
• Hopkins has an unusual way of getting inside. While most fighters step forward behind their jab, Hopkins steps forward while throwing right-hand crosses or left-hand hooks, often confusing his opponents.

Weaknesses of both fighters

Pavlik
• Pavlik is a one-gear fighter, walking straight in on his opponent with little or no head movement, offering a stationary target for Hopkins.
• Pavlik allows himself to be tied up on the inside, which is Hopkins' turf.
• Although Pavlik is one of the heaviest hitters in the middleweight division since Rocky Graziano, in Hopkins he is facing a fighter who has never been knocked out and has been knocked down only twice (by Segundo Mercado 14 years ago), and Pavlik might become frustrated by his inability to hurt Hopkins.

Hopkins
[+] EnlargeBernard Hopkins and Joe Calzaghe
Ethan Miller/Getty ImagesCalzaghe's high work rate and relentless attack tired Hopkins in the later rounds.
• At 43, Hopkins is one of the wonders of the boxing world. And while he says, "nobody has told me to quit," his body might one day, and he could become boxing's version of Dorian Gray right in the middle of a fight.
• He's not a one-punch knockout fighter, so Hopkins cannot afford to trade howitzers with the heavier-hitting Pavlik.
• Hopkins has shown a tendency to pace himself, sometimes fighting not just only in spots, but only part of a fight -- as witnessed by his fighting only six rounds in each of his two Jermain Taylor fights.

What each must do to win

Pavlik
• Wear Hopkins down, press him and make him expend energy. When Hopkins circles the ring, slide with him and cut him off. Pavlik must make Hopkins fight three minutes a round.
• Throw hard jabs. When Joe Calzaghe fought Hopkins, he pawed and slapped with his jab in the first half of the fight, allowing Hopkins to easily move away from or step inside Calzaghe's jab. In the second half of the fight, Calzaghe threw fast, stiff jabs, forcing Hopkins to stay stationary and block them, enabling Calzaghe to land hooks and crosses. Pavlik needs to do the same.
• Keep his hands up and step to his right to avoid Hopkins' most effective technique, that of waiting for his opponent to stop punching and then stepping forward with a right-hand lead and moving in like a battering ram, his head coming right behind his fists.
• Pavlik cannot play cat-and-mouse games with Hopkins. He must ignore Hopkins' tricks and feints and not let Hopkins' street fighting take him out of his game plan.

Hopkins
• Hopkins must control the pace of the fight. In recent fights he has shown he cannot go 12 rounds at a fast pace and only fights in spurts.
• Hopkins is all defense from the outside. He must circle away from Pavlik and not let Pavlik set his feet.
• Hopkins needs to step in with right-hand leads, get inside and stay there. Hopkins is a much better fighter than Pavlik on the inside, who tends to leave himself open when punching in the pocket.

Bert Sugar's recent book, "My View from the Corner," co-authored with Angelo Dundee, is now on sale at better bookstores everywhere.