Originally Published: October 15, 2008

Can Pavlik bring down the curtain on Hopkins' career?

Kelly Pavlik might have youth and experience on his side, but he won't be bringing anything to the table that wily vet Bernard Hopkins hasn't seen before. Graham Houston breaks down Saturday's clash.

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Houston By Graham Houston
Special to ESPN.com
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Bernard HopkinsDylan Wilson/Hoganphotos/Golden Boy Promotions "He thinks I'm washed up!" Bernard Hopkins, right, will have the last laugh if Kelly Pavlik underestimates the ageless wonder.
The eternal boxing theme of youth versus experience will be played out once again on Saturday when middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik takes on amazing veteran Bernard Hopkins in Atlantic City, N.J.

Hopkins, 43, is the fighter who won't go away. But then, why should he? In his last appearance he lost by split decision to Joe Calzaghe, one of the world's top pound-for-pound fighters, knocked the younger man down and, in his own mind, believes he won.

Meanwhile, Pavlik, 26, seeks to add to his reputation by beating one of the modern legends of the ring. More than this, his trainer, Jack Loew, seems convinced Pavlik can and will become the first to stop a fighter who not only has an iron chin but is a master of defense.

No championship is at stake but the 12-rounder, made at a catchweight of 170 pounds, does have its element of intrigue.

It isn't exactly a match that fans demanded to be made, but it poses interesting questions. Can Hopkins end the unbeaten run of an exciting fighter he describes as the "young lion" and thus continue to laugh in the face of Father Time, or will Pavlik batter his way to a victory so convincing that it will ring down the curtain on the elder statesman's long and notable career?

These are the things that the crowd at Boardwalk Hall and the world-wide TV viewing audience will be waiting to find out.

Pavlik is the favorite but Hopkins has his adherents. The former middleweight and light heavyweight champion from Philadelphia has lost three of his last five fights but in each of the two bouts with Jermain Taylor and the one in April against Calzaghe, the margins were narrow on the scorecards.

In between those losses, Hopkins scored upset wins over Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright, handling both so easily that it seemed amazing he entered the ring as an underdog. The same could be said about his crushing win over Felix Trinidad seven years ago.

Unstoppable
TV lineup
The schedule for the Top Rank-Golden Boy Promotions card Saturday night (HBO PPV, 9 ET) from Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J.:

• Light heavyweights: Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) vs. Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KOs), 12 rounds

• Featherweights: Steven Luevano (35-1-1, 15 KOs) vs. Billy Dib (21-0, 11 KOs), 12 rounds, for Luevano's title

• Middleweights: Marco Antonio Rubio (42-4-1, 37 KOs) vs. Enrique Ornelas (28-4, 18 KOs), 12 rounds, title eliminator

• Middleweights: Daniel Jacobs (10-0, 9 KOs) vs. Tyrone Watson (7-1, 3 KOs), 6 rounds

One wondered how the oddsmakers could have been so wrong in these three bouts. Hopkins just might have the pundits thinking the same thoughts after Saturday's fight.

No one has beaten Hopkins without some dispute since Roy Jones Jr. won a fairly comfortable decision 15 years ago, so if Pavlik can dominate him it will be a singular success.

Pavlik, as is his way, seems to be giving Hopkins no special measure of respect despite his opponent's accomplishments. When the bell rings, he will just go out and look to take care of business as he always does, taking the fight to Hopkins and putting pressure on him from the outset.

"Our game plan is to make him have to throw at least 65 punches a round," Pavlik told ESPN.com from his home in Youngstown, Ohio. "He never really averages that at all, but if he's going to have any chance of winning it's going to be his only choice.

"I just go out and keep winning the rounds. If a knockout comes, great, especially against Hopkins, but our main goal is to go in there and win that fight."

Hopkins is an expert at controlling the tempo of a fight and outthinking and outsmarting his opponents. Pavlik clearly does not plan on allowing him to do this, and while his primary objective is to win, he entertains the thought that it could come inside the distance.

"Hopkins has a good chin and a good defense," Pavlik said. "A lot of fighters, they get into Hopkins's game, and that's when he wins the fights. The thing is, when you make somebody fight, they have to fight back to win. Once he has to punch back, that's when he'll open himself up.

"When their hands come away from their face, their chin's fair game."

A bruised left elbow suffered in sparring last month barely slowed down Pavlik's training.

"You're a fighter, you have to work through it," Pavlik said. "It was only sore for a couple of days, just a little bruise on the bone. It's fine now."

This get-on-with-it attitude sums up Pavlik's single-mindedness and work ethic. Even Hopkins pays homage to Pavlik's grit, as he has admitted during the media tour that he's a fan of Pavlik's.

Hopkins is adamant, though, that Pavlik is not going to be able to walk through him. "I want to see his reaction when he finds out they lied to him when they said he was fighting an old man," Hopkins said.

Those who believe in Hopkins' can pull off the upset will point to a 45-year-old George Foreman knocking out Michael Moorer and Archie Moore's world title successes in his 40s -- and at 39, Sugar Ray Robinson's torrid 15-round draw with the strong, swarming middleweight champion Gene Fullmer.

[+] EnlargeBernard Hopkins-Joe Calzaghe
John Gichigi/Getty ImagesBernard Hopkins wasn't outclassed as much as he was outhustled against Joe Calzaghe.
Age, then, can be a relative thing, and Hopkins might be one of the most well-preserved fighters the world has ever seen. Discipline is his watchword. He has never allowed himself to get much above his fighting weight, and with his crafty, cagey style he hasn't had to take a great deal of punishment.

In fact, the only time Hopkins was actually in a "war" was when he fought a draw with Segundo Mercado in Ecuador almost 14 years ago, a fight in which he was knocked down twice.

Still, even an exceptional physical specimen such as Hopkins has to husband his resources in a 12-round bout. It has been noticeable for some time now that Hopkins likes to pace himself and fight when he chooses to do so.

Fight Credential

Pavlik vs. Hopkins
For all the stories, podcasts, videos and news on Kelly Pavlik's showdown with Bernard Hopkins in Atlantic city, visit the Fight Credential.
In the fight with Calzaghe, Hopkins was simply outhustled. He looked like the better puncher and the more polished practitioner, but he couldn't keep up with the Welsh boxer's busy workrate.

When Hopkins wanted to slow things down, Calzaghe kept his hands moving.

This could be the sort of thing that will liklely happen Saturday, with Hopkins scoring sharply in spurts and Pavlik being more consistent.

One difference is that Pavlik will probably be looking to land harder, more-telling blows than Calzaghe was throwing.

It was as if Calzaghe just wanted to smother Hopkins with punches and keep him bothered and bemused -- Pavlik, one feels, will be looking to do damage.

However, Pavlik's punching power didn't seem as forceful when he met Taylor in their rematch at 166 pounds in February. In fact, although Pavlik is perceived as the puncher in the fight, the match weight might level out the firepower of the contest: Hopkins might be doing some hard-hitting of his own.

[+] EnlargeKelly Pavlik
AP Photo/Jae C. HongMore than anything, Kelly Pavlik wants to put on a show for the fans.
Pavlik, though, has always persevered and walked through the storm. He did it after an early knockdown against Fulgencio Zuniga in October '05, when he broke down Edison Miranda in May '07 and again when he rallied from the brink of extinction in the first fight with Taylor in September '07.

There were times in the rematch with Taylor when Pavlik looked in danger of being outscored, but he kept right on coming -- jabbing, throwing the right hand, going to work with both hands when he was up close. In the end, he wore Taylor down, sweeping the last three rounds on two judges' scorecards and winning two of the last three rounds on the third card.

It is this scenario that will probably carry Pavlik to victory Saturday; he is willing to keep pushing and keep the punches coming, even if it means taking some shots in order to inflict a greater degree of hurt on the other man.

"The fans are going to see 100 percent from me," Pavlik told ESPN.com. "I'm going out there to do whatever it takes to win and do what I always do -- put on a show for the fans."

When Pavlik gets into his stride he punches like a machine and it is difficult to fend him off. Yet it would be a major surprise if Pavlik were to stop Hopkins, who is durable and evasive and knows how to tie up to slow things down.

Hopkins is likely to have his successes and might land the sort of clear, well-timed blows that bring roars from the crowd, but the belief here is that, over the course of 12 hard-fought rounds, Pavlik will be throwing and landing the greater number of punches -- enough of them to ensure he is the winner on the scorecards when it's all over.

Graham Houston is the American editor of Boxing Monthly and writes for FightWriter.com.