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Derby has no room for long shots

Updated: May 1, 2009, 4:52 PM ET
By Bill Finley | Special to ESPN.com

The key to picking the Kentucky Derby is not in figuring who the best horse has been in February, March and April but who will be the best horse on the first Saturday in May. I want a horse who has yet to hit his peak, who hasn't emptied his tank in the long series of prep races before the Derby and has the ability to beat the best 3-year-olds of his generation.

In Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge and Pioneerof the Nile, you have four horses with strong credentials and one ...

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