ESPN Horse Racing

Updated: October 9, 2008, 3:31 PM ET

On the surface

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By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com
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No one is quite sure how the new Pro-Ride synthetic surface will affect this year's Breeders' Cup, but, 10 days into the Oak Tree meet, some answers are starting to emerge. It appears that Pro-Ride is a lot like its synthetic cousins, Tapeta, Polytrack and Cushion Track. It has produced formful racing, is not kind to front-runners and the inside may not be the best place to be.

Through Oct. 5, 68 races had been run on the Pro-Ride surface and 21 of them have been won by the betting favorite. That's among the good news coming out of Santa Anita. Racing at Oak Tree has been far from an indecipherable mess. The favorite is winning at a rate of 30.9 percent, which is more or less than national average around the country no matter the surface. Old-fashioned handicapping will still work a lot better than throwing a dart at the pages of your Daily Racing Form.

It seems that just about all synthetic tracks make things difficult for early speed horses and, so far, Pro-Ride is no exception. There have been only 9 wire-to-wire winners so far on the main track at Oak Tree, which comes out to a 13 percent winning rate. By comparison, I did a survey of more than 1,300 races run around the country on traditional dirt tracks for my book "Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing's Newest Frontier" and found that 30 percent of those races were won in front-running fashion.

Closers are faring the best at Santa Anita. Forty of the 68 races (59%) were won by horses who were fourth or worse at the first call. Nineteen of the races were won by horses who were second or third at the first call.

The way Santa Anita has been playing is good news for Curlin and bad news for Big Brown. Curlin comes from off the pace, while Big Brown does his best running when sent right to the lead.

It may be too early to tell, but it appears that inside posts are not the place to be. Horses breaking from Post 1 are 2-for-44 so far in sprints at Santa Anita. Horses breaking from Post 2 are also 2-for-44. Post 1 is showing a respectable 4-for-24 record on routes, but Post 2 is 0-for-24. Combined, Posts 1 and 2 have accounted for only 4.4% of the winners so far at Santa Anita.

The hottest Pro-Ride sire so far is Unusual Heat. He has sired four different winners over Pro-Ride. Tiznow is next with three Pro-Ride winners, including Goodwood winner Well Armed and Tizzy's Tune, the winner of the Pine Tree Lane Stakes.

Smart Strike, the sire of Curlin, has yet to have a Pro-Ride winner, but, elsewhere, his progeny have done well on synthetic surfaces. Square Eddie, won the Grade I Lane's End Breeders' Futurity last Saturday on a Polytrack surface at Keeneland. It was the second career start on a synthetic track for the son of Smart Strike. That same afternoon, a 4-year-old son of Smart Strike named Storm the Castle, won an allowance race on Woodbine's Polytrack surface. Still another son of Smart Strike, a sprinter named Silver Sword, has emerged as a synthetic specialist. After winning two straight over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs, he finished second on Polytrack at Turfway in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Sprint.

The recent success of Smart Strike offspring on synthetic tracks is no surprise. In data compiled by Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph, through Dec. 18, 2007, sons and daughters of Smart Strike were winning nearly 16% of the their starts on synthetic tracks, which is among the better percentages of any sire.

Curlin may be the last horse in this year's Breeders' Cup that will be hindered by Pro-Ride.

Passing the Cup
The decision to take the 2010 Breeders' Cup to Churchill Downs was a good one. Not only was Churchill's turn due, but also it's a great facility that can handle a huge crowd and it's part of a city that gets truly excited about horse racing. With Santa Anita and Churchill now in line to host the 2008, 2009 and 2010 Breeders' Cups, Belmont Park is the logical choice for 2011. The Breeders' Cup has made no secret of its desire to use large facilities to host the event, and Santa Anita, Churchill and Belmont certainly qualify in that area.

But the Breeders' Cup shouldn't totally forget about some of the country's mid-level, mid-sized tracks like Monmouth Park. Different is good and no one wants to keep returning to the same three places year after year. Monmouth, Arlington and Lone Star all did terrific jobs when they hosted the Breeders' Cup and gave the event the treatment and respect it deserves, which hasn't always happened elsewhere. Let's hope those tracks still get the occasional shot to host the Breeders' Cup and that Del Mar is also part of the Cup's future.

Bill Finley is an award-winning racing writer whose work has appeared in the New York Times, USA Today and Sports Illustrated. Contact Bill at wnfinley@aol.com.