Semi-pro picks
I have just come from a Breeders' Cup handicapping seminar, during which I was given some flabby pancakes and bouncy sausage for some guesses about two days of championship racing, and for answering some questions, one of which was: Do you really pay attention to picks made by so-called professional handicappers?
The answer to this one is yes, of course.
The follow-up question was: What, then, is to be gained from somebody else's pick?
Well, nothing much, when it comes to picks of the win. What could somebody, anybody, know that you don't know? How to handicap, that's about all. Most inside information is worthless, because if you've heard it, it's outside. The only time I ever pay attention to public handicappers is when they heat up and hit a few in something resembling a row, or when a local handicapper picks a strange one, a horse with a price, on a simulcast TV broadcast. Picks by local TV characters are made so questioningly, and so near the post, that there's little chance the payoffs will be altered by a random viewer's wager. Who would take a rumpled picker's 15-1 tout seriously? I might, a dollar's worth.
When I will for a fact listen to pro picks is when they stink, which is frequently.
Here's how I get my money's worth off a picker who couldn't hit his or her noggin with a rolled-up Form. I tip a teller at the betting hall and say that there may be a moment or two during the race card when I need to cancel a bet late, and fast, at which time I might need to fling a ticket over the window, as bad TV pickers oftentimes wait until a couple of minutes to the post to release the negative vibes. If a bad picker makes a play on a horse that I really like, I will probably scale it down some.
Canceling a bet, or toning one down, after a bad picker kisses a number goodbye, then watching the horse run sixth, is awesome.
These two days, it can be like a gift, having a bad picker hand you a loser on butcher's paper.
Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.
November 6 & 7
Full Coverage
• Zenyatta wins Classic, stays perfect
• Conduit repeats in Breeders' Cup Turf
• Longshot Furthest Land takes Dirt Mile
• Goldikova repeats in BC Mile
• Vale of York stuns Juvenile field
• Dancing in Silks upsets Sprint
• California Flag flies in Turf Sprint
• Pounced jumps on Juvenile Turf win
• Life is Sweet best in Ladies' Classic
• Informed Decision wins F&M Sprint
• Midday takes inside route in F&M Turf
• She Be Wild takes Juvenile Fillies
• Tapitsfly outduels in Juv. Fillies Turf
• Man of Iron captures BC Marathon
Features
• Finley: Horse of the Year? Still Rachel
• Cronley: Best ever?
• Novak: Zenyatta a display of greatness
