ESPN Horse Racing

Updated: November 5, 2009, 2:13 PM ET

Finley: Breeders' Cup picks

Comment Email Print Share

By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

MARATHON DIVISION
After Muhannak, then an unknown, unaccomplished English gelding, won this race last year, it stands to reason that European horses have a big advantage over the American entrants, who are largely a bunch of plodders and reformed claimers. MASTERY is a Group I winner, meaning he should have a big class edge on the locals. By winning the St. Leger Stakes, he has proved he can get the distance, and his lone start on a synthetic surface, a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby Challenge at Kempton, wasn't bad. His main competition should come from fellow European stayers FATHER TIME and MAN OF IRON. Father Time finished behind Mastery in each of his past two starts but has the advantage of having won over a synthetic surface. Man of Iron is a bit cheaper than the top two picks. He has not been able to get the job done when trying group stakes competition. He has, however, thrived on the Polytrack in Ireland and will no doubt like this surface.

1. Mastery
2. Father Time
3. Man of Iron (a European sweep)

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
Here's another race in which the Europeans figure to have a class edge. LILLIE LANGTRY has been running against some of the better 2-year-old fillies in Europe and is coming off a win in a race worth more than $1.2 million. A Group II winner from one of the world's best stables, she should be the one. JUNIA TEPZIA is another interesting European invader. She has yet to try top-class company but has looked terrific in her two career starts and comes from a very smart outfit in Team Valor. The question with LA NEZ is whether she can handle the grass. Based on her third-place finish in the Grade I Darley Debutante, she has enough class to handle this assignment. According to Thoro-Graph data, the offspring of Storm Creek win 11 percent of the time when making their turf debuts.

1. Lillie Langtry
2. Junia Tepzia
3. La Nez

JUVENILE FILLIES
BEAUTICIAN posted fast numbers when chasing Hot Dixie Chick, maybe the best 2-year-old filly in the country. Trying a synthetic surface and two turns for the first time, she had a rocky trip in the Alcibiades, never quite finding running room. She deserves another chance. NEGLIGEE won the Alcibiades after splitting horses in the lane. She showed a lot of maturity that day and is a proven commodity on synthetic surfaces. ALWAYS A PRINCESS set the pace in the Oak Leaf before fading late. She hugged the rail throughout, which didn't appear to be the best path at Santa Anita that day. Is liable to improve.

1. Beautician
2. Negligee
3. Always a Princess

FILLY AND MARE TURF
There is so little speed in here that a horse like DYNAFORCE just might get control early and set dawdling fractions. That would be a huge advantage. This could look a lot like the 2005 Filly and Mare Turf, when Intercontinental stole the race. Don't hold Dynaforce's last race against her. It was in a bog at Belmont, and she obviously hated the soft going. Her prior race, a win in the Beverly D., is more indicative of what she can do. MAGICAL FANTASY has won four straight and likes this course. There's nothing not to like about her. There's surprisingly little European presence in here, but the lone foreigner, MIDDAY, must be considered. She's a Group I winner and beat Rainbow View in the Group I Nassau. Rainbow View just finished second in the E.P. Taylor at Woodbine.

1. Dynaforce
2. Magical Fantasy
3. Rainbow View

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Another brutally tough race. SARA LOUISE's main claim to fame is that she is the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra. Since, she has run two very fast races, including a narrow defeat to the very tough filly sprinter Indian Blessing. She's just a 3-year-old and has never run on a synthetic track. Those are the negatives. The positives are that she's a very fast horse, comes from the hottest stable in the world and should be a fair price. INFORMED DECISION is 6-for-6 on synthetic tracks and proved her mettle with a win over VENTURA earlier this year. She'll be tough to beat. As will Ventura. The defending champ has done little wrong since last year and is coming off a win over males in the Grade I Woodbine Mile. She's certain to run a big race, but the thinking is this year's field is tougher than the 2008 version.

1. Sara Louise
2. Informed Decision
3. Ventura

LADIES CLASSIC
CARELESS JEWEL has been overshadowed all year by Rachel Alexandra, but she's a serious talent in her own right. Unraced until April, she's come from nowhere to win five straight, including an 11-length romp in the Grade I Alabama. Her advantage here is her speed. She's certain to get to the front and may not face much pace pressure. MUSIC NOTE will be tough to beat. Like everything in the American branch of the Godolphin barn, she got very good this summer and, with apologies to Zenyatta, might be the best older filly or mare in the country right now. Can she catch Careless Jewel? MUSHKA overcame a bad trip to win the Spinster on disqualification. It looks as if trainer Bill Mott has figured out that the synthetic track is her best surface.

1. Careless Jewel
2. Music Note
3. Mushka

JUVENILE TURF
INTERACTIF heads an American contingent that should have its hands full with some tough European foes. Since making the switch to the turf, this Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old has been outstanding. He won the With Anticipation by 4¼ lengths and then overcame a wide trip at Keeneland to win the Bourbon. POUNCED missed by just 1½ lengths in a Group I race in France. Has obvious credentials and looks best among European invaders. BRIDGETOWN looked good winning in Canada in an effort that was better than it looked on paper. He was under wraps after putting the field away late.

1. Interactif
2. Pounced
3. Bridgetown

TURF SPRINT
CANNONBALL missed by just a neck in the Grade I Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot in what may be the most important turf sprint in the world. Since, crafty trainer Wesley Ward has started the gelding just once, getting a winning effort out of him at Saratoga. With a series of strong local workouts since, he should be primed for another superb effort. NOBLE COURT may be better on the synthetic tracks than on turf, but his last grass start was a strong one. He's been chasing divisional leader Zensational, who will be favored in the Sprint, and should find this level of competition to be much easier. DIAMONDRELLA is simply a very good mare. She may need a slightly longer distance and has never faced males, but she is solid and has won seven straight on grass.

1. Cannonball
2. Noble Court
3. Diamondrella

SPRINT
ZENSATIONAL is a monster. He is blazingly fast, consistent and has been dominating the competition. The one flaw is that he is one-dimensional and breaks from the rail, meaning he will be forced to gun for the lead. But there's no one else in here with his kind of speed, negating the chance of a suicidal duel. FATAL BULLET ran a tremendous race in last year's Sprint, getting caught up in a fast pace and then hanging on gamely for the place position. He's back in top form and is the main danger to Zensational. GAYEGO has an affinity for synthetic tracks and is in top form. But he will need a blistering pace to win this and might not get it.

1. Zensational
2. Fatal Bullet
3. Gayego

JUVENILE
AIKENITE didn't win the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, but had a wide trip, was closing strongly and showed he can handle a synthetic track. He looks like a horse who is getting better with every start. NOBLE'S PROMISE defeated Aikenite in the Breeders' Futurity. Here's hoping that turns out to be a key race for the Juvenile. ESKENDEREYA has a lot more to prove after merely winning a minor New York stakes that came off the grass, but he looked sensational winning the Pilgrim, and the Pletcher stable is high on him.

1. Aikenite
2. Noble's Promise
3. Eskendereya

MILE
Don't worry that GOLDIKOVA got beat at 2-5 last time in France. The problem was not her but the ride. Jockey Olivier Peslier needlessly chased a very fast pace, and Goldikova had nothing left for the stretch run. She should run back to her terrific effort in the Jacques le Marois. The post is a worry, but she's still the best. ZACINTO jumped up with a big race in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, losing to Rip Van Winkle, and finishing in front of the classy Delegator. Could complete a European exacta. COURT VISION seemed to reawaken once shifted to the Dutrow barn. Still not sure that a mile is his best distance, but he did win the Shadwell at eight furlongs.

1. Goldikova
2. Zacinto
3. Court Vision

DIRT MILE
MIDSHIPMAN has done very little since winning the Juvenile last year and appears to be too slow, at least on the Beyer scale. But he could have one huge advantage here -- he's the only speed in the race. Coming off a sprint and having drawn the two post, he's certain to go to the front and should have a very soft trip. The only question will be whether he is good enough. MASTERCRAFTSMAN is an intriguing candidate to win this. He's a legitimate Group I type and warmed up for this with a win over a synthetic surface in Ireland. PYRO beat a very tough horse in Kodiak Kowboy in the Forego and should be right at home at this distance. The problem is he's going to need a fast pace to get up in time, and it doesn't look like he will get one.

1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Pyro

TURF
PRESIOUS PASSION is so much fun to watch. He'll be out there by 10 lengths, just daring them to run him down. Can he go all the way? Why not? He's won four straight on firm turf courses, can handle this distance and will, of course, be loose on the lead in one of the weakest Breeders' Cup Turfs ever. CONDUIT tries for back-to-back wins off a solid performance in the Arc de Triomphe. Note that this year they will give him Lasix, which can't hurt. SPANISH MOON has strong credentials and has been among the best in Europe this year at this distance.

1. Presious Passion
2. Conduit
3. Spanish Moon

CLASSIC
QUALITY ROAD looked like the best 3-year-old in the country until foot problems threw him off the Derby trail. The foot issues are a thing of the past, and he's been moved into the Pletcher barn, but he hasn't quite lived up to his promise. Pletcher thinks the colt did not like sloppy tracks in the Travers or Jockey Club Gold Cup, two races in which he still managed to run respectably. The big question, of course, is how he will handle the synthetic surface. According to Thoro-Graph data, sons of Elusive Quality win 10 percent of their starts on synthetic surfaces, which is not a very good number. Still, he has the potential to run huge. If you like Quality Road, you can't dislike SUMMER BIRD, who beat him in the Travers and the Gold Cup. COLONEL JOHN hasn't won a race that matters since last year's Travers, but his second-place finish in the Goodwood shows that he's back on his game.

1. Quality Road
2. Summer Bird
3. Colonel John

Bill Finley is an award-winning racing writer whose work has appeared in The New York Times, USA Today and Sports Illustrated. Contact Bill at wnfinley@aol.com.