ESPN Horse Racing

Updated: September 30, 2009, 6:34 PM ET

The Challenge: 18 races, 18 cases

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By Jeremy Plonk
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

No less than 18 races this Saturday and Sunday could have an impact on the Breeders' Cup World Championships, now just a little more than a month away. From New York City to Paris, and Los Angeles to Newmarket, we span the globe in search of racing's best. We even make a pit stop in Anderson, Ind.

But which of these races has the most chance to alter the course at the Breeders' Cup? Let's take a crack at the 18, in order of the most likely impact.

1. Norfolk Stakes (Sunday, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Juvenile division)
The Skinny: Juvenile editions held at Santa Anita all-time have been swept by west coasters (Capote, Brocco, Action This Day, Midshipman). Last year's Norfolk produced Juvenile one-three finishers Midshipman and Street Hero. Bob Baffert's Looking At Lucky would stamp himself the horse to beat in the Juvenile if he can handle his first try around two turns.

2. Oak Leaf (Sunday, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Juvenile Fillies division)
The Skinny: Just like the Juvenile, the JF has been a west fest when held at Santa Anita (see Brave Raj, Phone Chatter, Halfbridled and Stardom Bound). The only reason this race sits behind the Norfolk in importance is the fact that the region's top filly, Mi Sueno, has been sent to the sidelines with a serious leg injury.

3. Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Saturday, Belmont Park, Turf division)
The Skinny: English Channel, Buck's Boy, Tikkanen, Manilla and Theatrical all have pulled the Turf Classic and BC Turf double. This race has produced at least one BC Turf top three finisher each of the past five years. Dancing Forever (third) was the only American to hit the board in last year's Turf at Santa Anita, and he was thrashed more than 30 lengths in the Hirsch. The presence of dominant American grass runner Gio Ponti makes it must-see.

4. Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe (Sunday, Longchamp, Turf or Classic divisions)
The Skinny: All eyes will be on the 3-year-old Sea the Stars in Sunday's international showcase, though trainer John Oxx has hinted that an Arc appearance likely precludes 'Star from moving on to Santa Anita. Dylan Thomas (winner) and Soldier of Fortune (third) have been major Arc players to make the Breeders' Cup trip the past two years. Neither hit the board as the Turf favorite, however. But that's a bit short-sighted, considering Shirocco rebounded from an Arc fourth to win the '05 Turf and High Chaparral was third in the '03 Arc before dead-heating for the Turf win right at Santa Anita, and also third in the '02 Arc before winning the '02 Turf outright. Milan, fifth in the '01 Arc, rebounded to run second in the Turf. In short, respect everything that comes out of here, but be cautious of a winner who might leave his best race on the course.

5. Jockey Club Gold Cup (Saturday, Belmont Park, Classic division)
The Skinny: Curlin parlayed a JCGC win into Breeders' Cup Classic glory two years ago, but you have to go all the way back to Skip Away in 1997 to find another who has pulled off the pair. In fact, only four horses in the current decade have even come out of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Classic (Curlin, Bernardini, Albert the Great and Milwaukee Brew). Still, there's a quality field in this year's renewal that demands our attention, namely 3-year-olds Summer Bird and Quality Road.

6. Beldame (Saturday, Belmont Park, Ladies' Classic division)
The Skinny: From 2004-'08, every Ladies' Classic exacta has included an alumnae of the Beldame, including '07 winner Ginger Punch and '06 winner Round Pound. Cocoa Beach ran a bang-up second last year at Santa Anita following her Beldame win. It's been a decade since Beautiful Pleasure's '99 sweep of the Beldame and Ladies' Classic (then known as the Distaff). And, only Hall of Famers Personal Ensign ('88) and Lady's Secret ('86) also have swept these two races. In other words, beware the Beldame, but be careful not to over-emphasize just the winner. And, if Zenyatta opts to go in the Classic vs. the Ladies' Classic, this race becomes even more important. But with only Music Note and the past-her-prime Unbridled Belle expected to start as headliners, this does not appear to be a Beldame of past repute.

7. Cotillion (Saturday, Philadelphia Park, Ladies' Classic division)
The Skinny: Octave ran a strong third in the '07 BC after her Cotillion performance, following fellow Todd Pletcher trainee Ashado, who won both races in '04. With Careless Jewel and Just Jenda entered this year, it's a serious race.

8. Miss Grillo (Sunday, Belmont Park, Juvenile Fillies Turf division)
The Skinny: Inaugural Juvenile Fillies Turf winner came out of a fast victory in the Miss Grillo Stakes, and given the event's short history and copycat society we live in, look for several from this year's Miss Grillo to feel the trip west is worth their time.

9. Vosburgh (Saturday, Belmont Park, Sprint division)
The Skinny: While an important race on the east coast, the Vosburgh has been almost completely irrelevant to the four Breeders' Cup Sprint editions held at Santa Anita. None of its same-season alumni have hit the board out west. Talent Search managed a distant third in 2007 on the Monmouth slop after running second in the Vosburgh. But with the California sprint division looking awfully thin behind Zensational, you'd have to think this race will be important again.

10. G1 Sun Chariot (Saturday, Newmarket, Filly and Mare Turf division)
The Skinny: Visit (fourth) and Halfway to Heaven (seventh as the post-time favorite) traveled to last year's BC after running one-three in the Sun Chariot. The race appears to be picking up steam as a potential prep as Simply Perfect was fourth in the Sun Chariot in '07 before a disastrous Monmouth venture where she bolted on the first turn.

11. Prix de l´Opera (Sunday, Longchamp, Filly and Mare Turf division)
The Skinny: This French landmark has fallen out of favor as BC prep, without a starter since Satwa Queen made the trip in '06. It was important stop for Yesterday in two Filly & Mare appearances, as well as Islington's '02 journey when finishing third. With the success of the Euros last year, don't be surprised if favor returns.

12. Flower Bowl (Saturday, Belmont Park, Filly and Mare Turf division)
The Skinny: When Lahudood won this race two years ago, she got no respect at Monmouth and rocked the toteboard. Soaring Softly also used this race before '99 glory. But the west coast grass hasn't been green for Flower Bowl alumni in the two events held at Santa Anita. This year's race in New York does not appear particularly strong either.

13. Prix de l´Abbaye (Sunday, Longchamp, Sprint or Turf Sprint divisions)
The Skinny: Once upon a time, the Euros brought sprinters over here. In the early to mid-'90s, it was downright vogue every year, including '91 Sprint champ Sheikh Albadou, second in the Prix de l´Abbaye. But the last European raider to the BC Sprint was Mozart in '01, and none has come from this particular prep since '97. Given the success of the Euros as Oak Tree last year, don't be surprised if there's a bit of a renaissance this year on the main track. Fleeting Spirit came out of this French fixture last year to finish a solid fourth as the beaten favorite in the inaugural Turf Sprint.

14. Hawthorne Gold Cup (Saturday, Hawthorne Racecourse, Classic division)
The Skinny: Though a 10-furlong race on the main track, this year's Gold Cup may not be solely a Classic-division prep. Brooklyn winner Eldaafer and Turfway Fall Championship winner Nite Light appear more-suited for the Marathon as automatic qualifiers. Awesome Gem would appear Classic bound with a good effort, having finished third at Monmouth in '07 before running sixth on the turf in the '08 Mile. Horses have used the Gold Cup with some Classic success, including '98 winner Awesome Again and longshot superfecta finishers like Perfect Drift and Super Frolic.

15. Pilgrim (Sunday, Belmont Park, Juvenile Turf division)
The Skinny: In its two previous runnings, the Juvenile Turf saw '07 Pilgrim winner The Leopard flounder on the Monmouth bog and '08 third-place finisher Relatively Read punch the time clock in fifth. There's little history here, but little in the way of national preps for the Juvenile Turf division, so every race counts here.

16. Indiana Derby (Saturday, Hoosier Park, Dirt Mile or Classic divisions)
The Skinny: At 1-1/16 miles, this 3-year-old race has as much potential short as it does long. Pyro backed up from his Indiana Derby second to run sixth in the Dirt Mile. Swaps winner Misremembered is west-coast based for Bob Baffert and could be a Classic consideration with a big performance.

17. G1 Prix de la Foret (Saturday, Longchamp, Mile or Turf Sprint divisions)
The Skinny: At 7 furlongs, this race can produce a 'tweener, a horse whose best distance might fit a few divisions. Aidan O'Brien brought over last year's third-place finisher U.S. Ranger and ran fifth in the Mile, photo'd out of the show money.

18. Kelso (Sunday, Belmont Park, Mile or Turf Sprint divisions)
The Skinny: This Grade 2 race has lost the luster it once had and visions of Lure in the Mile are long gone. Its three alumni were dusted at Monmouth two years ago, and no one bothered make the trip to California last year.

Jeremy Plonk has been an ESPN.com contributor since 2000 and is the managing partner of the handicapping website Horseplayerpro.com. You can E-mail Jeremy about this topic or anything racing-related at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.