When you're hot, you're hot
Here's what's hard about picking winners at the horse races: everything.
Chief among the difficulties in making money consistently is maintaining a stable mental condition.
The psychology of betting on horses is such that you can win or lose depending on your frame of mind.
I'm all the time getting into discussions with card players about which is the most difficult endeavor, playing poker or horse race handicapping. That so many people play poker is the answer in and of itself, cards are easier. The average dummy shies away from what's the toughest. Here's why race handicapping is more difficult than memorizing odds or observing twitches. You can't bluff horses. What kind of card players do horse players show up to be? Lousy, if I am any indication. Horse handicappers good with probabilities are also good with cards. Instinctive or strongly subjective horse players are so used to dealing within themselves that messing with somebody lippy across the table leads to impatience.
The goal of every horse player is to have fun and make some money.
To many, the ideal situation is to study races and tracks and connections far and near and proceed to the wagering station when the elements are in your favor, be it a horse coming back after being roughed up, or a weather condition favoring one style over all others. But if you only place good-sized bets once in a while, rotten luck can drive you to the card room. A friend of mine made three good-sized bets last month and lost all three to a series of steering and climate misfortunes that had him thinking about turning to the five-buck slots for relief. Moreover, all three horses that he had liked came back and won for nice money within their next two starts. What this proves is the only way to become a better horse player is by going to the races more, and by betting more often.
The average halfway decent horse player really could be walking around lucky without even knowing it.
Your mood, the way you're thinking, oftentimes determines whether or not you'll win some money at the races. You have a basic philosophy about what makes a good race on which to bet. It doesn't take long to build a solid handicapping foundation. Ten years, fifteen, the lab setting is so much fun, it goes fast.
Some days you're thinking correctly, some days you're not. Some days you'll see important things that another afternoon might as well be written in Latin.
Anybody can pick winners occasionally.
Not everybody can avoid losers.
Here's the way to get the most of all the research, the hairline losses and pigheaded rides.
Quit after a winner? That's nuts; quit losing, not winning. First, quitting a winner is no fun. Next, it doesn't further the mindset of a winner. If you thought correctly once, it could be habit forming. Make another bet. Keep playing as long as your thinking is on the right track. Here's a very important handicapping tip. If, after you win, you come close, keep wagering. Here's another suggestion. If you win, then miss a mile, make another small bet. Two big misses is strongly suggestive that your mind has left without you.
Good thoughts are valuable. Streaks are predictable.
To recap, you're not spending enough time at the horse races.
Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.
