Saturday picks
Bill Finley picks Saturday's best races.
The La Prevoyante
Handicap
8th Calder
Distance: 1 1/2 miles on the grass
Purse: $200,000
For: Fillies & mares, 3-year-olds
and upward
Grade II
Already a stakes winner over the Calder turf course, Amelia has fared well in graded-stakes company, finishing a close fourth in the Grade 3 Pebbles Handicap last season and sixth, but beaten just 1 1/2 lengths, in the Grade 3 My Charmer Handicap three weeks ago. She was closing ground late in that event and will appreciate the additional three furlongs this afternoon. Trainer Shug McGaughey won this event last year with Krisada. Stay Forever has made seven career starts, all at Calder, with five wins, a second and a third-place finish against males in the Bonnie Heath Turf Handicap November 16. She also tries the 1 1/2-mile distance for the first time today, but is back in against her peers. Julie Jalouse made a splash in her U.S. debut last March, charging from midpack to win the Grade 2 Orchid Handicap at nearby Gulfstream Park. She has just one win from four subsequent starts, but can rebound in this spot and is reunited with jockey Jose Santos, who was aboard for the Orchid victory.
Picks Summary: 1. Amelia 2. Stay Forever 3. Julie Jalouse
The Fred W. Hooper
Handicap
10th Calder
Distance: 1 1/8th miles
Purse: $100,000
For: 3-year-olds and upward
Grade III
Local bettors will likely be all over Grade 1 winner Booklet, who recorded an impressive Beyer Speed Figure in his Nov. 19 return to the races. But he is suspect at this afternoon's nine-furlong distance, so let's take a stand against. Dancing Guy has only a single win from 12 trips to the post this season, but sports improving form and could be coming to a peak effort The seven-year-old gelding finished a willing third to Best of the Rest and The Judge Sez Who last time out, but the closer was compromised by slow fractions and could get a more favorable pace scenario this afternoon. Should save ground from the rail and is in receipt of 10 pounds from Booklet. Best of the Rest, to be ridden by the nation's leading rider Jerry Bailey, has a remarkable 12 wins from 19 starts at Calder and has finished out of the top three just once. Another seven-year-old, the gray horse could get first run from a stalking position and looms a serious threat. Three-year-old The Judge Sez Who, winner of the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby this year, can always be counted on for a strong effort and can share.
Picks Summary: 1. Dancing Guy 2. Best of the Rest. 3. The Judge Sez Who
The W.L. McKnight
Handicap
11th Calder
Distance: 1 1/2 miles on the grass
Purse: $200,000
For: 3-year-olds and upward
Grade II
The Bahen to Bailey angle (you know that one, don't you?) is in effect, as the top pilot takes the call on owner/trainer Rick Violette's Man From Wicklow, who, despite turning in some very good efforts, has not visited the winner's circle this year. Fourth in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Invitational, the gelding improved to third in the Grade 1 Man O' War Stakes and was third in the Grade 2 Sky Classic Handicap in Canada two months back. The dark bay faces a solid field, including Rochester, whose trainer Jonathan Sheppard saddled With Anticipation to a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Winner of the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Turf and Sycamore Breeders' Cup at today's distance, the gelding was a solid fourth in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup in his most recent start and is a contender beneath jockey Pat Day. Serial Bride is an improving sort who comes into this race off consecutive placings in graded-stakes competition. While unlikely for the win, he could complete the trifecta at longshot odds.
Picks Summary: 1. Man From Wicklow 2. Rochester 3. Serial Bride
The Gallant Fox
Handicap
9th Aqueduct
Distance: 1 5/8th miles
Purse: $100,000 added
For: 3-year-olds and upward
Grade III
The longest stakes race contested on the main track in the U.S., the Gallant Fox has been won two years in a row by Coyote Lakes and the veteran is back looking for the three-peat. Like the Eveready bunny, the eight-year-old just keeps going and going and has recorded two wins in three starts since returning from a six-month vacation in September. The Arizona-bred is sent out by trainer Bruce Levine, who is winning with 35 percent of his horses at the current Aqueduct meeting and has a year-long strike rate of an excellent 20 percent. Likely to vie for favoritism with the Coyote is Pinky Pizwaanski, who comes into this event off consecutive triple-digit speed figures and romped over a muddy Aqueduct main track Nov. 27. Pleasant Breeze is another who would appreciate a wet racetrack and if able to clear his outside post could take the field a long way on the front end. Fisher Pond, an $800,000 yearling purchase, won the Lawrence Realization Handicap contested over a sloppy Belmont main track in October and was second in the off-the-turf Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct Nov. 23.
Picks Summary: 1. Coyote Lakes 2. Pinky Pizwaanski 3. Pleasant Breeze
The La Brea Stakes
7th Santa Anita
Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $200,000
For: 3-year-old fillies
Grade I
Could a fourth Grade 1 victory lead to some consideration for year-end honors for owner Edmund Gann's You? The dark bay, who turned in one of the most thrilling efforts of the year when winning Saratoga's Grade 1 Test Stakes by a nostril in July, is a dual Grade 1 winner at Santa Anita and acquitted herself very well at distances slightly beyond her best in late summer and early fall. The runner-up to Take Charge Lady in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland in early October, You will try to carry trainer Bobby Frankel ever closer to a record for earnings in one season. In their only previous head-to-head encounter, Bella Bellucci finished 12 lengths behind the top pick in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes this past June. A smashing Belmont allowance winner the following month, the grey filly is making her first start since finishing third as the favorite in the Grade 1 Gazelle Handicap September 7. Spring Meadow, third to You in the Test, has trained very well over the Santa Anita strip and has top-three claims.
Picks Summary: 1. You 2. Bella Bellucci 3. Spring Meadow
The San Gabriel
Handicap
Sunday's 8th at Santa Anita
Distance: 1 1/8th miles on the grass
Purse: $150,000
For: 3-year-olds and upward
Grade II
Originally slated to run in the Hong Kong Mile Dec. 15, Decarchy was rerouted for this race and has the look of a strong favorite. The lightly raced five-year-old took each of his first three starts in the U.S. last year before closing out the season with a runner-up finish to Good Journey in the Grade 2 Citation Handicap. He has two graded-stakes victories to his credit this season and was a troubled fourth behind Good Journey in this year's Citation. Jockey Jerry Bailey is in for the ride. Grammarian my be the Rodney Dangerfield of the Southern California turf scene--no respect. He paid $60 when winning the Grade 2 Sunset Handicap earlier this summer at Hollywood Park and made most of the pace in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup November 23 before yielding late to be second at odds of 14-1. The cutback in distance is a concern, but he was impressive in winning a nine-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs Nov. 3. Seinne won the Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap over track and distance during the spring meeting in Arcadia and finished second, ahead of Decarchy, in the Citation.
Picks Summary: 1. Decarchy 2. Grammarian 3. Seinne (Chi)
