Now What?
Autumn draws near and the plot is becoming thick with an abundance of possibility. The final act may go something like this:
Quality Road, having set course records for 9 furlongs at Gulfstream Park and 6 ½ furlongs at Saratoga in consecutive races four months apart, wins the Travers in track-record time for 10 furlongs, humbling the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winners and putting himself in position to be voted the season's champion male 3-year-old. Owner Edward P. Evans considers then rejects offers from IEAH Stable and Godolphin.
Rachel Alexandra crushes a field of older males in the Woodward while breaking the Saratoga course record for 9 furlongs galloping home under wraps in the final sixteenth-mile of a 10-length win. Calving Borel, overcome by emotion amidst a rapturous celebration, falls off beyond the wire and begins speaking in tongues. Principal owner Jess Jackson is noncommittal in regard to her next start but announces that production of a Kendall-Jackson commemorative wine made in her honor will be increased from 300 to 30,000 cases.
Undefeated Zenyatta, after winning the Clement Hirsch over the Del Mar Polytrack while leaving several bettors alive to a 1-5 single in the pick-six in cardiac arrest with a dramatic Personal Ensignesque rally, her 12th straight win snatched from the jaws of defeat. The drama fuels intensification of the clamor from those who demand a showdown with Rachel Alexandra, which, in light of Quality Road's sensational return, is not exactly as important as it seemed a few weeks ago. Maintaining the streak is the first order of business for those in the Zenyatta camp, who dodged a bullet at Del Mar. Seeking out mismatches and adding them to the running total it now more important than facing Rachel Alexandra, who has never been overtaken in the last jump.
Now what?
Best case: They all show up at Belmont Park on October 3 for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, making it the race of the year if not the decade.
Owner Jerry Moss is thinking more about the Pacific Classic, an understandable consideration considering the quality or lack thereof of the males she would encounter. Zenyatta, the drama queen, is a mare of great presence and charisma, an Amazon diva. The streak is of utmost importance to her legacy.
More realistic forecast: The best case is an unlikely scenario. Things just don't get that good. The remainder of the season is more apt to take form more suitable the agendas of the humans involved. Besides, racing fans are uncomfortable when all the questions are answered. There's nothing left to conjecture.
If she is not already Horse of the Year after having won the Preakness and Haskell Invitational over males of her own age, beating older males in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga would make the result of that post-season poll a fait accompli.
Quality Road, having missed a Triple Crown he may very well have won on more durable hooves, moves on toward the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic. Zenyatta, now out of Horse of the Year consideration no matter what might happen in California, would best be placed in the softest possible spot because 13 is the magic number that equals the standard for career winning streaks at the sport's highest level established in 1989 by Personal Ensign. Zenyatta, with the Breeders' Cup not on Rachel Alexandra's itinerary, would be in position -- assuming a Pacific Classic or another victory in the interim -- to win her 14th straight race in the Ladies' Classic, a race she won last year on the Santa Anita rubber band and would likely win again barring a surprise by a European of which we are not yet aware.
It is no longer necessary for Zenyatta, her winning streak overshadowed, to face the filly who has made the 2009 season her own, to prove herself against Rachel Alexandra.
Still, the possibility remains that Rachel Alexandra could face Quality Road in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which would become as a result her personal Breeders' Cup.
A Woodward in which Rachel Alexandra competes will electrify Saratoga. A Jockey Club Gold Cup in which the best 3-year-old filly faces the best colt may even bring a pulse back to the racing game at a time of year that is not spring.
Jackson has and will come under fire for the decision to not race Rachel Alexandra in the Breeders' Cup but his widely shared distaste for synthetic tracks, underscored by Curlin's defeat in the last Classic is a matter of record and his intent was clearly stated some time ago. She has nothing to prove by racing at Santa Anita and if she remains in training at age 4 there may be another Breeders' Cup opportunity in 2010, when the event will return to track with a dirt surface more appropriate to American racing.
But Jackson loves playing to the crowd in the name of what's good for the game. He understands the appeal of a star, particularly a bold, powerful, mercurial and apparently now unbeatable female. This is an opportunity to do something huge. Jackson is also fond of keeping his options open and few horses offer as many varied possibilities as does Rachel Alexandra. Having chosen to race Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness and the Haskell, the Woodward presents a compelling challenge, less appealing perhaps than a confrontation with Quality Road in the Travers but in the longer view a perfectly prelude to a Jockey Club Gold Cup in which both would start.
"Right now, it is safe to say that she will be nominated to the Alabama, the Travers, the Personal Ensign, the Woodward, and the Pennsylvania Derby," trainer Steve Asmussen said last week at Saratoga. "I think that you have obvious attractive scenarios for all of those races that are very separate."
Some are more attractive than others and none as attractive for the purpose of advancing Rachel Alexandra's stardom and her owner's racing legacy as the Woodward. Certainly the Alabama and Personal Ensign are meaningful races in the careers of most top-class fillies but Rachel Alexandra has put herself on another level of which she is the sole occupant. The rules no longer apply. For the purpose of accomplishing something of historic importance, the Woodward, which will be run on Sept. 5, offers the widest stage. She has already crushed repeatedly all but one of the best of her own age, male and female. Were she to win the Alabama or the Personal Ensign by 20 lengths, Rachel Alexandra, who has had only one testing race this season, the Preakness, would prove nothing.
Curlin won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in each of his Horse of the Year campaigns. What would be a historic victory by a filly would make Jackson the owner of three consecutive Gold Cup winners. Rachel Alexandra could also make Jackson owner of only the second filly to win the Gold Cup. Since 1919, only one filly, the great Shuvee in 1970, has claimed this title.
Jackson is not hesitant to talk the talk. He has displayed the willingness to walk the walk. But now that stroll embarks upon hallowed ground over which he and his remarkable filly stride together. This is not a road without forks, however and her place in history depends largely upon the route Jackson chooses to travel.
He speaks often about history and legacy and if these things are of real concern to Jackson, the road that goes from Saratoga to Belmont Park in October offers the greatest reward to both Rachel Alexandra and those fortunate enough to watch this truly memorable story unfold.
Paul Moran is a two-time winner of the Media Eclipse Award, and has received various honors from the National Association of Newspaper Editors, Society of Silurians, Long Island Press Club and Long Island Veterinary Medical Association. He has also been given the Red Smith Award for his coverage of the Kentucky Derby. Paul maintains paulmoranattheraces.blogspot.com and can be contacted at paulmoran47@hotmail.com.
