Classic confusion
Bang the gavel … order in the court, somebody, please!
You could blame the Santa Anita Pro-Ride surface for the chaotic nature of what's to come and find plenty of supporters. But glance down the list of American handicap race winners this year on dirt and tell me where the contenders would come from even if this year's Classic was held at Churchill or Belmont?
The best case (and it's a grand one) would be for a 3-year-old filly, the regal Rachel Alexandra, to add luster. But that would add even more historical chaos considering you just don't get 3-year-old fillies in the Classic. French filly Jolypha ran third in the '92 renewal at Gulfstream for Andre Fabre, and that's that -- one attempt ever. I'd love to see Rachel there, but in terms of clarity, she makes things even less clear.
The key dirt races in the handicap division have not provided any depth or rationality this year. The solid, but unspectacular Macho Again won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill, though everyone with binoculars believes turfer Einstein was best after a nightmarish trip. Gulfstream's Grade 1 Donn Handicap went to last year's BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, whom everyone thought was just an all-weather local at last year's championships and has been AWOL since the Dubai World Cup. And, speaking of the Dubai results, Well Armed romped over a track said to be so speed-biased that it was the only explanation for his front-running assault. Like Albertus Maximus, he, too, now has been sidelined and won't make the November discussion anyway.
Further, and I hate to belabor a point, but, boy, it's hard to find clarity in this division, the Oaklawn Handicap winner It's A Bird was disqualified for a medication infraction and then completely tanked in the Suburban at Belmont. The Suburban winner was 6-year-old gelding Dry Martini, who got poured down the drain in the Whitney by Bullsbay, the longest shot on the board and a horse who gave superior turf ace trainer Graham Motion his first-ever Grade 1 winner on natural dirt.
So, run this baby on the real dirt, and tell me again: Who ya taking? It's as confusing in fantasyland as it is on Mother Earth. Certainly the 3-year-old males on dirt would provide a dose of intrigue, but outside of Mine That Bird, Quality Road and Summer Bird, there's not much. And, beyond Quality Road, there's no fear factor among anyone. He's the one who could be the "one" from this eye and many others. But good luck keeping his feet healthy until November. Remember Big Brown?
One thing is for certain: the future-book odds clearly indicate that the one-two finish by Euro turfers Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator in last year's Classic are going to leave a heavy taste in bettor's mouths come this November. Whether or not you subscribe to the theory that the turf horses were advantaged over Oak Tree's Pro-Ride all-weather surface, expect the odds board to reflect it as truth.
Even culling the facts from the frustration, which is hard for we horseplayers to do most times, you can still bet your bottom dollar that the Europeans will be hammered at all times this fall. Perception is not just reality, it is certainty when you talk with horseplayers, who speak exclusively in opinionated terms while standing in line and investing their allegiance.
But which Euros will garner the most attention, and do the Breeders' Cup pools that are predominately filled with American money have the handicapping savvy to separate the confusing form? Last year, Europeans appeared in 11 of the 14 championship races. Of those 11, six times the American betting public made one of the raiders favored. The results of that allegiance were uninspiring:
Europe's best bets held a lowly 6: 1-1-0 mark, with three of the heaviest four wagering plays of the day finishing out of the trifecta. Only Goldikova saved the day for those inhaling Euro-chalk. And based on her monstrous performance this past Sunday in the Prix Jacques le Marois in France, Freddy Head's filly would deserve to be the heaviest favorite on the entire Breeders' Cup program if the races were held this week. I was totally enamored with her after one You Tube date last fall, and she ran to that affection in the '08 Mile and then some. Her Marois performance was electrifying and tips that she's better than ever. Good luck, Mile boys.
But that won't help us in the Classic. And last year's results won't help price shoppers come November. Pick a Euro in the Classic, any Euro, and I promise the odds will be far under-laid from what they should be. The Americans figure to be overlays, if you can find the right one. Colonel John sure looked impressive on the Del Mar lawn recently and has the stuff for any surface and distance. And fellow west coaster Rail Trip has star potential following a Hollywood Gold Cup blitz. Make me bet the Classic today and I'm going one of those two ways. That is, unless Zenyatta comes over from the Ladies' Classic ranks or Gio Ponti shuns the Turf.
Now I'm confused again. Aye, it's a long way from August to November. Thank goodness for the Classic division.
Jeremy Plonk has been an ESPN.com contributor since 2000 and is the managing partner of the handicapping website Horseplayerpro.com. You can e-mail Jeremy about this topic or anything racing-related at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.
