Happy racing
Jay and his Grandpappy test some theories on short fields, as well as give you winners and losers for Saturday's Breeders' Cup.
One thing this Breeders' Cup day will test is my old Grandpappy's theory about short fields.
One day when we were at a dirt track in Nebraska, looking in the parking lot for a welsher, he said that a short field could make a horse look 5 to 10 percent better than he would have shown in a full field.
I don't know where he got those numbers.
He carried around a notebook full of figures and was all the time reading them like they had been produced by a tried and true formula.
But going by his way of thinking, these are not the important numbers pertaining to Officer in the Juvenile: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, with these numerals representing his track record.
These would be the important numbers: 5, 5, 3, 6, 7. Those are the sizes of the tiny fields that produced the five 1's. A person has to agree that beating a total of 13 horses in his last three, well, this is not all that many.
So Grandpappy and I expect to see if Officer is a gentleman in a full field at odd-on prices; we expect to beat him.
This Breeders' Cup figures to be one of the best ever because it will make the Ryder Cup in golf look like a tea and cupcake party. The Europeans have long fancied themselves as being above dirt, as being masters of the turf.
Which is fine.
Europeans have always scored with grass. They own the soccer pitch.
They rule the cricket patch. They govern the bowling lawn.
But now, sod it, the Europeans are coming for a piece of our apple
pie. They pulled their two turf all-stars from the glen and are getting
down and dirty in our very own Breeder's Cup Classic.
Distaff
I'm in a contest whereby the person who picks the most last-place finishers
wins a bundle, so I'll share my thoughts about both ends of the race with
you here.
On the business end of the race, a box involving these relatively lightly-raced horses looks safe and sound: Flute, Fleet Renee, Miss Linda and Exogeneous.
The Distaff will offer television viewers perhaps the day's only passing glimpse of D. Wayne Lucas, who is in town mostly to schmooze. His best chance for a close-up is in this one with defending champion Spain, who has run in 22 graded stakes races and could easily slip in second with any of the previously mentioned four.
Critical Eye, Two Item Limit and Atelier should complete the field, with Atelier ending the tale.
Juvenile Fillies
You, Jealous Form (30-1 in the program) and Take Charge Lady (12-1)
have all been the distance.
The plan is to put You over the other two and pray.
Habibti and Bella Bellucci are very fast, but Bella Bellucci defeated a grand total of three others going six and a half and Habibti beat four going seven furlongs in August. If you wanted to put those two with the aforementioned long shots, I wouldn't argue.
Shesastonecoldfax should beat only the track grader.
Turf Mile
Gamblers Anonymous Special!
Typical Cup turf race.
Val Royal is off two years and then puts up a 111 Beyer!
There will be a lot of professional advice available for the Breeders' Cup events. Here's what most of the experts know: About the same as what you know, unless you don't have a Form.
The main thing professional handicappers do Cup day is guess at what a layoff means.
This appears to be the perfect spot to experience the joy of passing on a race.
I have a history of picking fifth blindfolded in this race. I'll have a beer and a chili-cheese coney here and and put the glasses on Express Tour. This is his first race on the grass and he figures to proceed cautiously from the rear.
Sprint
A person could get winded just watching.
The horse on the rail has won 17 of 20, yet has no chance, Caller One has been considering things since July and El Corredor was a little late at a mile, yet I plan to hook Caller and Corredor to Kona Gold and hang on.
Alannan could use a stiff drink after running 14th.
Filly and Mare Turf
They could have run this at Epsom or Longchamp and saved the mileage.
Good time to people-watch. At the wire, most faces will turn long.
USA-only racer Solvig should see them all. If he has good eyes, because they'll be up there a ways.
Juvenile
Grandpappy and I are going after Officer with Siphonic and Came Home.
Came Home hasn't been out since Sept. 1, but Grandpappy says forget about it.
Trouble-line enthusiasts must take a good look at Saarland at 30-1.
Repent and Jump Start could show up second at nice prices.
But with Officer in the mix, what price isn't nice?
It'sallinthechase, a tidy maiden winner at Canterbury, should have the last snapshot all to himself.
Ibn Al Haitham is an actual maiden, having picked up $75K on three seconds and a show.
Turf
Wouldn't it be something if Hap, who has never raced off American grain,
mowed down the European competition? But Godolphin's Fantastic Light probably
only has overconfidence as its chief concern. Some pocket change on those
two -- you pass every turf race, it could become addictive.
Lodge Hill could stand a non-winners of three instead of this and eventually ends the race.
Classic
Tiznow a price, who would have thought it?
Sakhee is getting greedy, digging in the sand for treasure.
Galileo and Aptitude. Aptitude and Galileo.
Aptitude and Galileo, final answer.
It's all about patriotism. There are no losers in a race like this.
Orientate simply ends the parade.
