ESPN Horse Racing

This probably won't be the Kentucky Derby in which Todd Pletcher breaks through and wins one of these things. He only has one serious contender in Bandini and that colt will need a lot to go his way against some very talented horses, especially after he crawled home in the stretch in a slowly run Blue Grass. But Pletcher will win a Kentucky Derby, maybe three or four, maybe even more than that. It's scary to think what this guy might accomplish before his career is over.

He is just 37 years old, has been training only since 1996. Yet he has already won an Eclipse Award as the nation's top trainer, has 149 horses under his care and trains for some of the richest, most powerful owners in the world, people who spend serious money on impeccably bred horses at the sales. He is confident but remains modest, is organized, smart and has good people skills. He had the best stable in the country last year. He has the best stable in the country this year.

These are all reasons why he isn't getting too caught up in his modest 0-for-9 losing streak in the Derby. His stable lacks nothing and he could be around for another 40 years.

"I don't know if I expect to win the Kentucky Derby," he said. "But I expect to do well and, hopefully, succeed. Otherwise, I'd be doing something else. A better way of saying it is that I don't take it for granted that I'm going to win the Derby just because I'm fortunate enough to train a lot of good horses."

Pletcher, after serving an apprenticeship under Wayne Lukas, first showed up at the Kentucky Derby on his own in 2000. He started four horses that year and the closest he came was a third place finish with Impeachment. He finished second in 2001 with Invisible Ink and fourth in 2004 with Limestone. He's brought some decent horses, but never yet one talented enough to get the job done.

Bandini is arguably the best horse Pletcher has ever started in the Kentucky Derby. A son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, he sold for $500,000 at the 2003 Keeneland September sales and may prove to be a bargain. He's getting better with every start and is coming off a win in a prestigious Kentucky Derby prep. He will also start Lexington winner Coin Silver and Arkansas Derby runner-up Flower Alley.

"I feel very comfortable that we have three horses here who I am confident will get the trip," he said. "They're bred that way, are running that way, have had a series of mile-and-an-eighth races leading up to this. The foundation is there and the talent level is there. Bandini is definitely going to be the shortest priced horse we've ever run in the Derby. The public would certainly think that he's the best chance we've had here. I'm confident that he's doing well, will run well. You just have to hope all the other things fall into place."

Mostly, when it comes to the Derby, Pletcher hasn't gotten lucky. The right horse has yet to come his way. But they will; it's inevitable.

He has moved so far up the training ladder that he deals only in the best horses, colts and fillies with talent and looks and class. It's way to early to think about next year's Kentucky Derby, but Pletcher has already started to showcase what he has. A Pletcher-trained 2-year-old named Half Ours broke his maiden at Keeneland by 10 3/4 lengths. He's by Unbridled's Song and cost $625,000 at the sales. Pletcher probably has 20 more just like him tucked away in a barn somewhere, well-bred horses that cost a bundle, can run and are owned by mega-wealthy people who can't spend enough trying to win a Kentucky Derby.

We've seen the hot trainer before, the one that looks like he's got the sport locked in his grasp and will never let go. It never quite works out that way. Lukas' career has fluctuated wildly. Baffert didn't have a Derby starter last year and couldn't do any better this year than a hopeless longshot named Sort It Out. What's Bill Mott done lately? Remember when Leroy Jolley used to matter?

With Pletcher, it might be different. There's nothing about him or his stable to suggest he'll ever implode or even struggle. He's too young, too good and has the perfect personality to survive in this business. He's good at dealing with the media, his owners, his assistants. He's a professional all the way and isn't the least bit brash or controversial. In this game, vanilla works.

The 0-for-9 may not look too good right now. His record may look worse after Saturday. It's just that it's not going to stay that way. There is a Derby out there with his name on it, and it can't be too far away.

Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC (Saturday at 5 p.m. ET).