ESPN Horse Racing

In only a minute and 47 seconds, Bellamy Road transformed himself from just another promising colt to the king of the 3-year-olds. Even in the instant universe of the 21st Century, going from obscurity to No. 1 hardly ever happens.

Nobody saw the big son of Concerto coming before he blasted clear by 17 1/2 lengths April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. On raw numbers, it was by far the best Kentucky Derby prep in a long time. Javier Castellano didn't even ask Bellamy Road to run in the final furlong, and he still tied the 1973 track record set by Riva Ridge, winner of the Derby and Belmont the year before. If he'd been pushed, Bellamy Road would have won by 20 in 1:46 and change. Whoa!

The bandwagon is overflowing. Alleged experts who are usually wrong but never in doubt are certain they've found a sure thing. The colt owned by George Steinbrenner, longtime dictator of the Yankees, is the big horse in the biggest race of them all. The Boss, never a sentimental favorite even among Yankee fans, is guaranteed to have the betting favorite in Saturday's 131st Derby.

So, how could Bellamy Road lose? Oh, let me count the ways.

He's a front-runner in a race where many other contenders are speed types. As trainer Shug McGaughey said after the Wood, "I was impressed with him. It's going to be different on Derby Day, when he won't have the lead to himself."

With Spanish Chestnut entered as a rabbit for Bandini, Bellamy Road will face a colt being sent on a kamikaze mission. And even if Spanish Chestnut breaks poorly or has traffic trouble early, High Limit, Greeley's Galaxy, High Fly and Flower Alley (blinkers on) should ensure a hot pace.

Only in his debut, at 6 furlongs last summer at Delaware Park, has Bellamy Road ever passed a horse, and those were very bad ones. Horses don't win the Derby by learning a new trick the week before. You can't turn a need-to-lead type into one with tractable speed just like that. When asked if his emerging star will rate, trainer Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winner, said: "I hope so. Nobody knows for sure. I think he will, of course. There has been so much talk that he won't rate, but at least his last two workouts show us some indication that he will.

"But racing is different. You never know when the gates open up which foot goes which way. That's why I always talk about lucky and blessed.''

Bellamy Road has never been in a fight, and the Derby usually is a roughly run rodeo. Being battle-tested can mean a lot more than having the top Beyer Speed Figure. What happens if Bellamy Road breaks slowly, gets sandwiched leaving the gate or is bottled up and banged around in the inevitable traffic jam entering the first turn? His reaction might be: "Hey, nobody warned me about this rough stuff. This is no fun, and I don't want to play anymore."

Bellamy Road has run only twice as a 3-year-old, and since 1947, only one Derby winner (Sunny's Halo, 1983) has had just two preps. Does he have sufficient bottom to handle by far the most grueling test of his life? Two preps weren't enough for Point Given, one of the top 3-year-olds in recent years. He faded to fifth in midstretch as the 9-5 Derby favorite and a universally proclaimed lock.

Bobby Frankel, who trains High Limit, considers Bellamy Road the horse to beat but far from unbeatable. Not only is Frankel a Hall of Famer, he's also an excellent handicapper.

"[Bellamy Road] ran a very fast race in the Wood Memorial, but a negative about him is he might have run too fast in that race and sometimes the old bounce back comes in," Frankel said last month.

" . . . I don't know if a romp necessarily means it's an easy race, like Bellamy Road had a romp. But I don't know if that wasn't a tough race. Your eyes are deceiving when you watch horse racing. You're thinking a horse is winning very easily, but he might be doing the best he can even though he's not being driven."

So the wisest conclusion to draw is that you can never be sure. The best you can do is approach a race like a poker player, measuring risk against reward. Think about it: What are the chances of Bellamy Road getting the same extremely favorable circumstances he had in the Wood? He made an easy lead 100 yards from the gate and improved his position all the way against a badly overmatched field. Maybe it will happen again, and we'll have another superstar. Yet are you willing to take 2-1 odds, maybe less, in a 20-horse field in a notoriously chaotic race won by only two favorites in the past 26 years?

I had $20 to win on Bellamy Road in the Wood, and it was the easiest score I'll ever make. I won't be back on him Saturday, even though he may so good and in such terrific form that he may run like a superhorse. Maybe he's a freak, and if so, I'll salute him with both hands. But even if he wins by five in record time, with everything he has to overcome, he won't be a smart bet.

Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC (Saturday at 5 p.m. ET).