ESPN Horse Racing

The toughest handicapping question facing anyone trying to solve the annual riddle that is also known as the Kentucky Derby is this: Are the Kentucky Derby rules made to be broken?

Several horses in this year's field, including top contenders like Bellamy Road, High Fly, Noble Causeway and Greeley's Galaxy, are throwouts based on a number of historical standards that have passed a long test of time. By and large, a Kentucky Derby winner must have started as a 2-year-old, had at least three preps as a 3-year-old, raced within four weeks of the Derby and have started at least five times in their careers. The horses who have violated anyone of those rules and have been successful make up a very short list.

Yet astute trainers like Bobby Frankel, Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher have chosen to ignore one rule or another and have entered horses that appear to be insufficiently prepared for the task at hand. They say the game is very different now and believe that a freshened, lightly raced horse is the most dangerous kind. That has proven to be the case in most every other type of stakes race. Even the Breeders' Cup races have been won in recent years by horses who have come into the event off significant layoffs.

"As a rule, I love to have more time between races," Pletcher said. "I consistently get better efforts that way, by spacing out their races. I think it adds to their longevity, too."

Others still believe that a horse must have the proper foundation and experience to win the Derby, a uniquely rough and rigorous race, and that a horse that has been pampered won't be up to the task.

For those on both sides of the issue, this will be the best test yet of the Derby rules. Are they irrelevant in this new and very different era of horse racing or do they still matter in the Kentucky Derby? With so many horses in this field coming into the Derby off light schedules, that can question can be better answered come early Saturday evening.

It helps to start with a look at the past:

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby off a layoff of four weeks or more since Needles in 1956. Since, 31 have tried. That list includes Coax Me Chad, an improbable longshot who finished second in 1984. Most of the horses violating this rule have not been considered serious contenders. Among the better horses who didn't qualify in this area are Stephen Got Even and Serena's Song.

The Zito trained pair of High Fly and Noble Causeway, both of whom last started five weeks ago in the Florida Derby, violate this rule.

No horse has won a Kentucky Derby with two preps or less as a 3-year-old since Sunny's Halo in 1983. Since, 44 have tried. Since 1955, horses having two preps or less are 1-for-51 in the Derby. Several came close to winning despite having just two preps. Bold Arrangement (1986), Best Pal (1991), Strodes Creek (1994), Victory Gallop (1998), Proud Citizen (2002) and Lion Heart (2004) were all second after having two preps or fewer. Based on so many close calls of late, this appears to be the shakiest rule among the many rules.

Among those with two 3-year-old preps or less, notable failures include Arazi, Brocco, Point Given and Tapit.

Horses who don't qualify this year under this rule are Wilko, the Zito-trained Bellamy Road, the Frankel-trained High Limit and Closing Argument.

No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without having started as a 2-year-old. Since 1955, horses who have not started at 2 are 0-for-40 in the Derby, but most were longshots. Neither have any run second.

Notable failures include the mighty Forego, Air Forbes Won, the favorite in 1982 who finished seventh, and Pulpit.

Greeley's Galaxy is the lone horse in this year's field who did not race as a 2-year-old.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby with four or fewer career starts since Exterminator in 1918. Since 1955, 33 have tried. Strodes Creek, second in 1994, was the most successful among this group. Notable failures include Air Forbes Won, Indian Charlie, Stephen Got Even and Congaree.

High Limit, the Pletcher-trained Flower Alley and Greeley's Galaxy are this year's toss outs based on this theory.

That's eight horses who don't qualify this year under one rule or another. Of the 12 left, its nearly impossible to make a case for Going Wild, Don't Get Mad, Sort It Out, Andromeda's Hero, Coin Silver, Greater Good, Spanish Chestnut and Giacomo. Though he's the Santa Anita Derby winner, Buzzards Bay is another whose credentials don't exactly excite anyone.

Eliminate the rule-breakers and the horses with lackluster form and you're left with just three: Bandini, Afleet Alex and Sun King. For those who believe a horse must have the proper foundation to win the Kentucky Derby, an exacta box of those three might be the way to go.

Watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC (Saturday at 5 p.m. ET).