Five Zito horses can't stop feel-good winner
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Thursday was Cinco de Mayo.
Saturday is Cinco de Zito.
Trainer Nick Zito takes a record-tying five horses to post for the Kentucky Derby. The headliner is morning-line favorite Bellamy Road, with a supporting cast of Florida Derby winner High Fly, Florida Derby runner-up Noble Causeway, long-shot Andromeda's Hero and the talented Sun King, who started the spring looking like the star of the Zito barn but lost some stature after a dull run in the Blue Grass Stakes.
That's one of the strongest hands in the 131-year history of the race, and it provides the most prominent storyline of this year's run for the roses.
"It is an absolute blessing," the hoarse-voiced Zito said on a sun-splashed Thursday morning. "They're all going into the race without excuses, so hopefully one of them comes in first."
But having 25 percent of the starters is no guarantee of a finish-line fiesta. In fact, it says here that Zito's five-horse armada is beaten to the wire by Afleet Alex, who would be the third leg of feel-good Derby winners after Funny Cide and Smarty Jones.
Alex's blissful bandwagon features a common-man consortium of owners, three of whom had never owned a thoroughbred before; a breeder with colon and liver cancer who was told he had three months to live – three years ago; a first-time Derby trainer who has beaten the bushes with cheap horses for 30 years; and a first-time Derby jockey who only fell into riding when they raised the weights for college wrestling, rendering him too light.
But Afleet Alex isn't just the winner because he's got the best story; he's the best horse for this race, at this distance, on this day.
The old racetrack aphorism says that pace makes the race, and it's rarely been more relevant than it is to this year's Kentucky Derby – which figures to be very fast in the early going. Unless he is the second coming of Seattle Slew, a monster who dominated long races from up front, that will be the undoing of Bellamy Road.
And the pace scenario will unfold to the benefit of stalkers like Afleet Alex.
Bellamy Road might be the most talented horse in this field, and could end up being the star of his generation. But he's still raw, and has been a one-dimensional runner in his five-race career. He hasn't been behind a horse since his first race, last August. And front-runners rarely win the 1¼-mile Derby.
If Bellamy Road goes to the front early from a wide post (No. 16), he'll find company. Spanish Chestnut has been nakedly entered as a rabbit with no hope of winning, but with designs by owners Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith of setting up the race for their other horse, Bandini, a stalker. Others, most prominently High Limit and Greeley's Galaxy, figure to be sprinting through the first ¾ of a mile as well.
Front-runners don't relax well when pressed, so it's a very feasible scenario to see that group of leaders burning each other out and faltering as they head for home down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
| “ | Some key numbers to keep in mind: 46.6 seconds and 1:11.15. Those are the average fractions for the first half-mile and ¾ mile, respectively, during the last 14 Derbies. Check this year's fractions as they are posted on the TV screen during the race. ” |
Some key numbers to keep in mind: 46.6 seconds and 1:11.15. Those are the average fractions for the first half-mile and ¾ mile, respectively, during the last 14 Derbies. Check this year's fractions as they are posted on the TV screen during the race.
The last five Derbies run slower than those average times have been won by horses close to the pace. Among them: Smarty Jones was second at both calls, on his way to victory; War Emblem was first while wiring the field; Silver Charm was fourth but just two lengths back at the half-mile mark, and just ¾ of a length behind after six furlongs. On average, the winner was less than two lengths back after half a mile.
The last seven Derbies run faster than those average times, the winners have come from an average of nine lengths back after half a mile. Strike The Gold (1991), Grindstone (1996) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) were all 12th or worse at the half-mile mark. Monarchos, trailing the fastest pace in Derby history in 2001, was more than 14 lengths back at the half-mile and still eight lengths back at the ¾-mile mark.
This pace could well be faster than that average. In Bellamy Road's two starts as a 3-year-old, he set fractions of :45 3/5 and 1:09 4/5 in the first, and fractions of :46 and 1:10 in the second. And that was without any rivals pressing him to run faster.
Bob Baffert, who has won three of the last eight Derbies, said last Saturday that "if Bellamy Road runs his race, we're all running for second." But when asked that day whether Bellamy Road might need a War Emblem trip (stealing the race up front off a leisurely pace), Baffert said, "He might. It depends on post position, how they break. Usually speed horses have a better chance of winning because they're out of the way of all the traffic."
By late this week, Baffert was stating without qualification that the star of Zito's barn might need a War Emblem trip. Zito didn't care for the armchair analysis from one of his competitors and brushed off questions about Baffert's statements.
That was just another few pounds of pressure on Zito's shoulders. You can see the pressure at work on the New Yorker when you walk by his barn, which is walled off by PVC pipe, sawhorses, "Keep Out" signs and corrugated siding that shuts off the horses along the shed row from outside viewing.
"I think he feels pressure a little more than some of us," said four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. "Bob [Baffert] and I roll with it a little more than he does. I think that's just the way he's wired. He's very intense. He's being pulled a lot."
Zito has said that if he doesn't win his third Derby with this hand, it will take Secretariat to win the race again. It's time to go shopping for the next Big Red. Bellamy Road will have the lead as the horses straighten for home, but he'll be passed by onrushing Afleet Alex, with Bandini and Noble Causeway in pursuit.
Cinco de Zito will turn into somebody else's celebration.
Pat Forde is a senior writer at ESPN.com
