Love Giacomo? I can't do it
Some Monday morning quarterbacks and red-boarders are trying to make a case for Giacomo. Good luck.
I want to be nice to Giacomo. I want to praise this horse. I truly do. Loved his sire, Holy Bull. Jockey Mike Smith is just about the nicest guy you'd ever want to meet. Trainer John Shirreffs seems like a pretty good fella, too. I bet the kid he was named after, Sting's son, is a fine little tyke. Hey, I own Police records.
I just can't do it.
The facts speak for themselves, which is the reason why this colt is getting so little respect. Giacomo showed little before the Kentucky Derby and then won a slowly run race in which several major contenders were severely compromised by a very fast pace. Call it a fluke, call it a case of being in the right place at the right time, call it whatever you want. Giacomo will go down in history as one of the least talented horses ever to win the Kentucky Derby and he will not win the Preakness.
As far as the competition, the Preakness is actually a little easier than the Derby was. The new shooters in the race are nothing to fear and Bellamy Road, probably the most talented horse in the Derby field, will sit this one out with a minor injury.
But this will be a much different race. The early fractions in the Derby were :22 1/5, :45 1/5 and 1:09 2/5. It was a brutally fast pace and anyone who got anywhere near it was dead tired by the time the field staggered into the stretch. Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, Flower Alley, High Fly and Bellamy Road were all but eliminated when they went toe to toe against one another in those fractions.
It may have looked like Giacomo was flying down the stretch in the Derby. Rather, it was a case of him stumbling past a bunch of punch drunk horses. The time for the final half-mile was a dismally slow :53 1/5.
There will likely be a honest pace in the Preakness. Galloping Grocer, Going Wild, Hal's Image, High Fly and High Limit all have some tactical speed. But with the rabbit, Spanish Chestnut, sitting this one out, the pace won't be nearly as fast as it was in the Derby. It will be quick but sensible, and it won't spell disaster for anyone who gets near it.
The real mystery of the Derby was what happened to Bandini, Sun King, Noble Causeway, Greeley's Galaxy, Andromeda's Hero and Wilko. They all got perfect trips sitting behind the torrid fractions and failed to fire. Even Afleet Alex, who was third, threw in an inexplicably poor effort. He had a perfect trip, was beaten by a 50-1 and a 70-1 shot and dropped nine points off the 108 Beyer figure he recorded when he was so impressive winning the Arkansas Derby.
It's hard to believe that so many good horses ran so poorly, but there is a long history of Kentucky Derby flubs coming up big in the Preakness. Point Given, Louis Quatorze, Tabasco Cat, Pine Bluff and Hansel are all examples of horses who didn't fire in the Derby only to come back and win the Preakness. Among Greeley's Galaxy, High Fly, High Limit, Noble Causeway and Sun King, one of them has to show up this time. If anyone of those horses runs to their abilities, they should prove to be better than Giacomo.
Some Monday morning quarterbacks and red-boarders are trying to make a case for Giacomo. Maybe the California horses were better than everyone thought. How bad could he be when he was beaten just a length when finishing second behind Eclipse Award winner Declan's Moon last year in the Hollywood Futurity? Didn't everybody trash Charismatic after he won the Derby, too? Look what happened to him in the Preakness. Maybe Giacomo will win Saturday after all.
People are reaching.
The 2005 Triple Crown is starting to look a lot like the 1982 Triple Crown. The undistinguished Gato Del Sol took advantage of a hot pace and came from 19th to win the Derby at odds of 21-1. Different horses won the three Triple Crown legs and Gato Del Sol failed to win another major stakes race the rest of his career.
Though the sport hasn't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978, the three-race series is on an unprecedented run. Six of the last Kentucky Derby winners have won the Preakness and came into the Belmont Stakes riding a wave of excitement and publicity that has made the Triple Crown more popular than ever.
It's over. Giacomo just isn't good enough to hold up his end of the deal.
