ESPN Horse Racing

Juddmonte Spinster Stakes
Sunday, Oct. 5, Keeneland

The Low-Down: A difficult-to-separate field of 11 will contest Sunday's $500,000 Spinster Stakes, annually the most important filly and mare race not held on Breeders' Cup Day. While none of this year's cast appears destined for an Eclipse Award championship crown in 2008, you don't need a very thick history book to reach distaffers who have had a major impact at a price on Breeders' Cup Day. Lady Joanne, Asi Siempre and Pleasant Home all have been part of the Distaff superfecta at juicy odds in the last three years alone, with 2005 heroine Pleasant Home a record ninth Distaff champion to exit the Spinster, at $63.20 to win no less.

Which filly or mare handles the Polytrack surface obviously tells the tale of the Spinster, which has drawn a far-flung field from around America. Todd Pletcher trained last year's Spinster champ, Panty Raid, and aims for a second straight with UNBRIDLED BELLE, a millionaire earner making her first start on an all-weather track. She'll likely be favored over Shug McGaughey's CARRIAGE TRAIL, winner of the Doubledogdare Stakes over the Keeneland main track in April.

Our Eyes: The strength of the Ladies Classic division (renamed this year, formerly the Distaff) certainly appears to be on the West Coast with the likes of Zenyatta and the capable Hystericalady. We got a strong sense of that when Tough Tiz's Sis shipped East and annihilated the competition in the Grade 1 Ruffian at Belmont after failing to make a dent against Zenyatta. That being said, the California shippers -- which historically have been very strong in the Spinster regardless of surface -- really deserve extra consideration Sunday.

WAKE UP MAGGIE exits a commanding win at Del Mar in the listed Adoration Stakes for trainer Julio Canani. She earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure while coming home the final quarter-mile in just under :24 for the flat mile. She's untested at the Spinster's 1-1/8 miles distance, but that come-home time on the demanding Polytrack at Del Mar certainly hints she may be capable. Fellow West Coaster MODEL also comes out of the Adoration for Hall of Fame trainer Neil Drysdale. She flattened out in the stretch when third to WAKE UP MAGGIE, but certainly had a reason to be starchless after putting a serious scare into the unbeaten monster Zenyatta in the Clement Hirsch Handicap 26 days prior.

UNBRIDLED BELLE is the type of one-paced grinder who can succeed on Polytrack if she takes to the footing whatsoever. She can run all day and already has successfully carried the 123-pound assignment that, frankly, will be a major test for most of the Spinster rivals.

CARRIAGE TRAIL pulled the rare wire-to-wire victory on Polytrack when taking the Doubledogdare in April, rocking the field to sleep with :25-1/5 and :49 opening splits. She should not get that luxury with sprinter JIBBOOM, Ashland front-running winner LITTLE BELLE and turf pace presence SHARP SUSAN signed on. But, don't count out CARRIAGE TRAIL on the change in tactics. She actually runs her best with a target to chase and will benefit from more pace in the Spinster.

The Bottom Line: Of the California duo, I give the slight edge to WAKE UP MAGGIE because of jockey Julien Leparaoux's presence in the saddle. He's simply the game's best rider on Polytrack or turf. Unfortunately, the gaudy speed figure at Del Mar and Leparoux's presence probably will make WAKE UP MAGGIE an underlay in the mutuel pools given her level of accomplishment. I'll take my value chances with MODEL, the "other" Californian who is sired by prodigious all-weather surface producer Giant's Causeway. Key MODEL exacta boxes with WAKE UP MAGGIE, CARRIAGE TRAIL and UNBRIDLED BELLE.