ESPN Horse Racing

Chilukki Stakes
Sunday, Nov. 2, Churchill Downs

The Low-Down: I can think of two good reasons to run in this Grade 2 stakes. One, the Chilukki Stakes' one-turn mile distance is one of the most achievable distances in all of racing for most any horse. Two, Zenyatta ran last week in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. Those two factors led to an 11-horse field and a race far tougher than the $150,000 in purse money might suggest. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Robby Albarado scored last year's Chilukki with Rolling Sea and aim for back-to-back scores. But this year they'll be adversaries with the race's two key players. Asmussen saddles COPPER STATE, while Albarado partners with BARONESS THATCHER. That duo figures to vie for favoritism.

Our Eyes: COPPER STATE has never competed at Churchill Downs, but her runner-up tries in New York to champion Ginger Punch in the G1 Go For Wand and G1 Ruffian stamp her as the filly to beat. She has trained exceptionally well -- not to mention faster than the standard Asmussen stable breezes -- over the Churchill main track and should find it plenty to her liking. BARONESS THATCHER ran a visually spectacular race at Keeneland in allowance company, stretching out around two turns successfully, but certainly was trying something on the far end of her talent scope. Of the 22 Polytrack races held at 1 1/16 miles during the Keeneland meet, her time of 1:43 3/5 ranked second-fastest. Earlier this year, she showed her affinity for the Churchill dirt track with a bang-up second in the G1 Humana Distaff, beaten only a head by 7-furlong specialist Intangaroo.

As for the other contenders, INITFORTHEKANDY won a pair of elongated, one-turn races this spring at Churchill before finishing a distant second in the Grade 1 Fleur de Lis to star mare Hystericalady. From the rail, she could be part of the early pace. SWIFT TEMPER has not been seen since winning the G3 Gardenia at Ellis Park in mid-August, but she does not have a break in her worktab and appears that trainer Dale Romans has been pointing for this spot for some time. She consistently has been firing a.m. bullets over the Churchill strip and appears to be a vastly improved animal since switching barns to Romans. TIZ TO DREAM is the lone 3-year-old in the field, but do note that sophomore Sangrita annexed this race in 2006. TIZ TO DREAM was third in the G3 La Troienne over a similar trip at Churchill during the spring meeting.

The Bottom Line: COPPER STATE appears to be a bit more of a two-turn grinder, and I think she's a serious exotics contender who may not be quite brilliant enough to get the top prize. BARNONESS THATCHER and SWIFT TEMPER both appear to be rounding back toward career-best form. I'll hammer that duo in the exacta, and take the win money on SWIFT TEMPER, who should be a juicier price.