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Saturday, March 28, Nad al Sheba

Years ago, there was a public handicapper at Gulfstream Park named Tony Cobitz who for my money was the best ever at that dubious role, despite the fact he never picked a winner in his career. He never tried. Instead, he told the public what he knew and how he saw the race unfolding, then allowed the bettor to suffer the joys of figuring-out the puzzle for himself. Mindful that the Dubai World Cup is the single most challenging one-day puzzle in the game today, hopefully this Tony Cobitz-inspired Scouting Report will help you garner some elusive oases at the end of the sand storm.

I have included recent Timeform Ratings in this analysis. If you go back to last year's Breeders' Cup, you'll find that the Timeform Ratings towered over the Beyer Speed Figures, and even out-performed the Ragozin Sheets, in pin-pointing both winners and on-the-board performances.

Finally, if you're a "trend" player, notice how many World Cup winners do not participate in the two-month long Dubai Racing Carnival, but rather make the World Cup their only run of the year at Nad al Sheba, yet manage to get the money anyway.

(9:40 a.m. EST) GODOLPHIN MILE -- Gr. 2 -- 4YO & up -- 1,600 meters -- Dirt

Note the American victories in '07 and '08 in almost identical, front-running fashion, despite Diamond Stripes having never been on the lead after the first call in his career. Kudos to the much-maligned Rick Dutrow for knowing Nad Al Sheba's speed-favoring bias, and executing a brilliant game plan. Tactical speed owns the sand course and this year there are three major players who fit the billing, starting with American ex-patriot Two Step Salsa (118 career-best Timeform Rating), who looked liked a monster in his 6-furlong tune-up for this event. In his only attempt at a mile to date, he was beaten less than two lengths by Albertus Maximus in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, and his natural speed is ideal for this race and course.

I hated Ted Durcan's Euro-cowboy, scruff-'em-from-gate-to-wire ride on ex-pat Gayego (115) in the Al Shimaal Sprint on Super Thursday that almost cost him the win. In hindsight, it sets up Gayego perfectly for this longer distance, assuming Durcan bides his time this time and doesn't pull the same nonsense in the Mile. Strictly on recent trends, and the premise that "ours" are better on dirt than "theirs," American invader Informed (109) for Doug O'Neill also sports the ideal early running style that typically dominates the Mile. Of the pure locals, Michael De Kock's Art of War (105) figures to get single-digit tote support, but it's the other De Kock runner, Lucky Find (108), who intrigues me. Lucky Find was dominating last year's Carnival before finally wearing down late, while 'War was racking-up minor allowance runs in his native South Africa. Back-class, combined with an affinity for the Nad al Sheba surface, historically has paid huge dividends on World Cup night, and few horses on the card fit that profile better than Lucky Find in one of the weaker renewals of this DWC lead-off event.

(10:15 a.m. EST) UAE DERBY -- Gr. 2 -- 3YO -- 1,777 meters (1 1/8 miles) -- Dirt

Back in February, I penned a blog entitled, "The Likely Derby Favorite No One is Talking About" before the subject horse even made his 3-year-old debut. The horse was Desert Party (116), and nothing he's done to date has changed my thinking, especially since this is shaping-up as one of the weakest crops of American sophomore colts since a decade ago with the Real Quiet/Victory Gallop bunch. Given his breeding, the fact that he's had more than six weeks rest since his last, and that "he has been training brilliantly," according to Saeed bin Suroor, the distance certainly won't be a factor. If there's a single in pick three wagers anywhere on the card, this is the logical spot, although Godolphin has been known to lay giant eggs on World Cup night with 2-5 shots (circa Discreet Cat in '07, who ran dead last at odds-on). Regal Ransom (103) and Redding Colliery (102) are nice colts, but D.P. has dusted both twice, so there's no point in using them as back-ups on horizontal wagers, although they are logical choices underneath.

Watch Jose Adan's (105) last on replay and you'll get a good feel for just how horrendous are the Euro-jocks, and the huge risk you run whenever you wager on one of these cowboys. (If you want to save the trouble, think Mick Jagger on Clenbuterol.) A decent ride and a clean run could put him in the exacta at a square price. Otherwise, this is Desert Party's ticket to Louisville.

(10:55 EST) GOLDEN SHAHEEN -- Gr. 1 -- 3YO & up -- 1,200 meters (6 furlongs) -- Dirt

Again, note the total American dominance here, including eight of nine Shaheen victories, and one-two-three sweeps in two of the past three runnings. This year, things aren't nearly as clear-cut with more questions than answers for the only two Americans who decided to compete, starting with the filly Indian Blessing (117). You never know how a filly is going to react first time against colts. Some get intimidated, fractious, eventually wash-out, and become a total toss. Dubai is searing hot, even at night, so keep a close eye on her pre-race. If she's skitzed and full of kidney sweat, toss her. If not, it's hard to imagine her not being somewhere on the ticket.

Californian Black Seventeen (115) can be brilliant at his best, but he is no model of consistency, and that's a huge concern, mindful that the previous three American winners could be counted on to fire every time, regardless of locale or circumstance. Among the Euros, former Calder star Big City Man (112) has been awesome in three runs to date, and figures to be a powerful challenge to America's dominance. Champion turf sprinter Marchand D'or (121) was pounded at the windows in this race in '07 despite never having stepped foot on a dirt track in his career. He finished a pedestrian 12th behind Kelly's Landing, hasn't stepped foot on dirt since, yet once again has been installed as the pre-race favorite! Not with monopoly money.

Ditto the betting action last year on subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Diabolical (112), only he comes to this year's event a fresher horse off a much-needed and troubled prep behind stable-mate Gayego, and clearly is a better horse on dirt than turf with an overall record of 18: 7-5-3. Diabolical definitely will fire, on that you can be certain; plus he gets the services of Frankie Dettori who is as pure a horseman as his contemporary Jerry Bailey, and a brilliant tactical rider on this unique, no-turn, straight-shot course. The question is whether at age 6, Diabolical has lost a step.

The mystery horse is Japanese sprint star Lucky Quality (107), who is 4-for-4 against second-tier types back home, and has never faced this level of competition. That said, the 6-furlong track record at Sha Tin is 1:07.50, set only days ago, while this horse routinely runs in the low-eights, wins-off by daylight, and often "in hand." Hard to ignore! Still, if there's a written-in-stone edge in the Shaheen, it's always our American riders who have the ability to get their mounts to relax despite being surrounded by Euro-cowboys with their jumping and scruffing right out of the gate, and who instead wait 'til the final 100 meters to make the running, a tactic that spells the difference year after year in this race.

(11:55 a.m. EST) DUBAI DUTY FREE -- Gr. 1 -- 4YO & up -- 1,777 meters (1 1/8 miles) -- Turf

As usual, comes now the deepest and most competitive race on the card with no fewer than 10 Group/Grade 1 winners, highlighted by American hopeful Kip DeVille (122+). Those who saw the Kipster's three public works between races at Gulfstream Park prior to the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap knew he'd have to fall down that day to get beat. You'll recall prior to the 2007 Breeders' Cup Mile, Kip D. missed a scheduled work because of a minor foot problem, yet still dusted the world's best milers. In last year's renewal, only filly-freak Goldikova got his measure; she'd be the ML choice in here; and this Kip DeVille is better now than then, and in Rick Dutrow's opinion, "better than he's ever been."

American Hyperbaric (117) has an electrifying turn-of-foot, and while he clearly hasn't proven himself on this level, tactically he figures to sit the garden trip behind defending champion Jay Peg (120), who won this race last year from the 14 post on the front-end, and recent 7 1/2 furlong track-record setter and Group 2 Al Fahidi Fort crusher Gladitorus (119+), who's been nothing short of astonishing in two runs to date, albeit with no pressure on the lead. If these two hook-up early and go lights-out, as expected, Hyperbaric figures to get first run, often a huge tactical advantage in a traffic-laden, overflow field of 16.

Hard-luck Grade 1 Arlington Million runner-up Archipenko's (120) victory in the Group 3 Zabeel Mile was workmanlike, if not spectacular, similar to last year when he won the Al Fahidi Fort Mile before running a bang-up third in this event. Japan's super-mare Vodka (120) was tons the best in the Group 2 Jebel Hatta on this course, but was blocked for most of the stretch, and doubtless will improve for the run. Four-year-old Paco Boy's (123) gaudy Timeform number and morning line favoritism are the result of seven wins from 10 tries, although I have never laid eyes on the horse, and could find no replays to review. That said, a check of his running lines reveals only one name even remotely of this caliber, the filly Goldikova, who handed him his lunchbox. To me, a very strange and suspect ML favorite.

Of the three Godolphin runners, the fact that Frankie D. chose the filly Lady Marian (119), who hasn't had a run in more than six months and who bin Suroor has stated publicly, "needs a race," over local star Alexandros (116) speaks volumes about his chances. The other local Carnival star Presvis (117+), while super impressive to date, did not beat a single horse who qualified for this Duty Free field. This race is brutal, as always, made even tougher by its position as the first leg of the final pick three, mindful that there still is no late daily double on the Cup card. If you play, think Will Rogers: "Go deep, young man!"

(12:40 p.m. EST) DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC -- Gr. 1 -- 4YO & up -- 2,400 meters (1 1/2 miles) -- Turf

One of the beauties of the Sheema Classic is its 300-meter run to the first of three turns, making post position a non-factor. If you haven't yet seen the filly Front House (116), she's an absolute freak. She's every bit as good right now as the filly Godikova when she beat the boys in the BC Mile, and she is the only thing remotely resembling speed in a staggeringly paceless line-up. Her brilliance thus far has come in spite of some of the worst gate antics of this year's entire Carnival -- on every run to date -- and so bad in her last it looked like she might even get scratched. Even if she hadn't drawn the one-hole, there's no doubt in my mind based on her histrionics she would have been loaded first, and the last thing you want in a front-runner is to have her standing flat-footed through 15 additional loadings. That, coupled with her Super Thursday win from the 16 post in a brutal, all-out run; the fact she's had only three weeks to recover; and her free-running style that goes against the grain of typical Sheema Classic come-from-the-clouds winners, a victory against this bunch, while certainly not out of the question, would be one of the great feats of racing.

Two-time Arc de Triomphe runner-up Youzmain (125), fifth in this race in '07 and third last year, has kept the locals buzzing with his morning appearances. Despite the long layoff, Youzmain has been in Dubai for more than a month prepping for this race, and sports the Cup's highest TF rating, an angle that produced Breeders' Cup Classic bomb Raven's Pass. Perennial Euro monsters Quijano (119) and Doctor Dino (119) also reportedly are training well, and never can be dismissed, at any level.

The biggest human surprise at this year's Carnival has been trainer Mubarak bin Shafya, whose horses have run holes in the wind, and who figures to ring the bell somewhere on this card, perhaps here with Eastern Anthem (115) who clearly loves this course and distance. If you're looking for a bomb, you might want to consider the lightly-raced filly Deem (110+), who in her last inexplicably abandoned her tracking, one-run style that a week earlier saw her dust Front House, and instead made all the early running before continuing on gamely in the stretch. Those who follow the game closely know what a positive sign it is when a stalker/closer suddenly shows speed. It typically points to a horse who is super fit and jumping-out of her skin for the run, and almost always signals a giant effort next out -- particularly when stretching back out -- assuming her last indeed was an anomaly, and that Deem returns to her preferred tracking style. An all-filly exacta? Stranger things have happened in this classic turf event.

(1:30 p.m. EST) DUBAI WORLD CUP -- Gr. 1 -- 3YO & up -- 2,000 meters (1 1/4 miles) -- Dirt

"The boy is back!" Michael De Kock and the World Cup are Europe's version of Todd Pletcher and the Kentucky Derby: the greatest trainer never to have won the big one, and this clearly is De Kock's best-ever chance with Asiatic Boy (119+), coupled with the absence of a bona fide American superstar.

No horse in the Carnival loves the sand of NAS more than "The Boy," and his record bears that out at 9: 6-2-1, with virtually his entire $2.8M bankroll won on this track. This horse is the real-deal with the breeding, beautiful action, turn-of-foot, and determination befitting a world-class race horse, and some horse will have to run the race of his life to deny him, assuming John Murtagh doesn't invent a way to get him beat. Those who witnessed Murtagh's performance at the '08 Breeders' Cup -- or worse: bet on any of the horses he mangled -- know from whence I opine.

My Indy (117) for Godolphin likely will get as much play abroad as will American hopeful Albertus Maximus (119) here at home, and either is capable of springing the upset on his best. Of the other locals, BC Marathon winner Muhannak (111) reportedly has been a basket-case on track in the morning, with one scheduled work cut short and another cancelled all together, and now shows up with the blinkers back on. The mystery horse is Snaafy (116++) who has toyed with the competition in three runs, albeit at shorter distances, since removing the blinkers and abandoning his front-running style. The decision to go here instead of the Godolphin Mile is the biggest shocker of the night, and figures to continue the trend of long odds on the son of Kingmambo, who gets no respect from the punters mainly because he keeps defying the bias and winning from off the pace. Ergo, if you like him again, you can expect even greater value this time on the horse who, for me, is the night's most intriguing runner, particularly if the dirt track is drying out.

Finally, here is some of what the trainers are saying in various online mediums such as Daily Racing Form, Racing Post and Godolphin.com:

Michael De Kock on Asiatic Boy: "Asiatic Boy's preparation has gone a lot more smoothly (than Honour Devil) we have to admit and we know everything suits him. He will run a big race." (Note: Honour Devil was a late scratch.)

Michael De Kock on Nad Al Sheba: "The dirt track here is not good for horses. The kickback behind the pace can be intense, and trailing runners are at a major disadvantage."

Saeed bin Suroor on Desert Party: "I have been very pleased with Desert Party throughout the winter -- he has continued to progress. I am looking forward to seeing him run in the UAE Derby, which will tell us whether we should be thinking in terms of the Kentucky Derby with him."

Saeed bin Suroor on Regal Ransom: "The form book says Regal Ransom will struggle to reverse placings with Desert Party. I would like to see him continue to progress and run a solid race, but time may show he will prove better at shorter trips."

Saeed bin Suroor on Jose Adan: "I think Jose Adan is capable of better than we have seen from him on his two outings at Nad Al Sheba. This race should be run to suit him and I think he will be doing his best work at the finish."

Saeed bin Suroor on Gayego: "We were pleased that Gayego was able to win over the shorter trip first time up, especially as we thought he would come on (improve) for the run. The step back up to a mile on Saturday will be in his favour."

Luca Cumani: "Purple Moon has been unlucky with a lack of pace in his races. There doesn't look a lot of pace in the Sheema Classic, but we'll give it a shot."

Rick Dutrow: "I'm not concerned about Kip DeVille in any way. I know he likes the grass and I know he can get the distance. Arson Squad (115) did bleed in his last race, so that's the only thing I'm concerned about. But he's worked without any problem since then."

Mick Channon: "Youmzain is in great form. I was out there (in Dubai) a couple of weeks ago and he did a nice bit of work under Richard Hills so he should have a great chance. He has had a far better preparation this year than last year so I would be very hopeful really."

Kieren McLaughlin: "I could not be happier with Albertus Maximus. His last piece of work was outstanding and we come to Dubai in great shape. Obviously, it is never an easy race to win but we are there with a big shot."

Play nice in the sand, boys and girls!

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