Sands Point scouting report
Saturday, May 30, Belmont Park
The Low-Down: Seven 3-year-old grass fillies clash in this $150,000 feature from New York, and six of them hit the board in stakes company in recent outings. Not much separates the top from the bottom, while all but one runner totes 117 pounds in the allowance conditions. GOZZIP GIRL, runner-up in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland last time out, sports top weight of 121 pounds under Kent Desormeaux. This is a tough handicapping chore, folks.
Our Eyes: With very, very little pace expected based on past performances, the Sands Point figures to be a jockeys' race at the end of the 9 furlongs. Jockey Julien Leparoux leaves a full day at Churchill Downs to ride MAGICAL AFFAIR for trainer Michael Matz, whose stable has been going great-guns on the Delaware Park turf in recent days. The Edgewood Stakes runner-up made up 11 lengths last time out after a troubled start, but could not reel in the loose-leading Laragh, who is pure poison when left alone. She's not dancing Saturday, and, really, there's no front-end target to replace her.
Another jockey angle of note concerning Leparoux surrounds his change of seats from FAST TIGRESS to MAGICAL AFFAIR. He guided FAST TIGRESS to a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland behind stretch-out sprinter Afternoon Stroll, who took advantage of an inside post and rocked the toteboard. This was a deceptively good effort for the John Kimmel trainee while third, and it's noteworthy that Leparoux jumps for the Matz trainee. Fear not for FAST TIGRESS, though, as she lures none other than Garrett Gomez to the saddle.
GOZZIP GIRL deserves favoritism based on her back-to-back turf stakes wins in Florida this spring. While she moves Polytrack-to-turf, there's no doubt the surface suits her fine. But she's been a bit of a basket case in her races, even with a solid resume, often creating her own trouble. There's not much margin for error Saturday and she'll have to be on her professional best.
A pair of runners come off Keeneland Polytrack victories and make a class hike, BLUEGRASS PRINCESS and WARM SHOWER. The former had stakes class already, running third in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride to GOZZIP GIRL in March. But it's WARM SHOWER who excites me most, romping wide to win her maiden breaker April 3 and finally putting it all together. She's impeccably bred and expected to be a stakes-quality filly. She could step up and run a big one Saturday at a nice price.
The Bottom Line: I love Leparoux on the turf, and there are so many angles that point to MAGICAL AFFAIR that she becomes the choice. At 2-1 on the morning line to GOZZIP GIRL's 9-5, it looks like we'll have to dabble in the exactas to make a good buck. Take MAGICAL AFFAIR over WARM SHOWER for a generous return, and play stronger with the top pick over lower-paying exactas to GOZZIP GIRL and BLUEGRASS PRINCESS.
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