Phipps scouting report
Saturday, June 13, Belmont Park
The Low-Down: Three of the East Coast's leading Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic hopefuls are among a field of seven in this $300,000 Grade 1 event. The leader of that trio, no doubt, would have to be MUSIC NOTE, who last was seen when third to Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic at Santa Anita in October. Her long-awaited 4-year-old debut comes against rising star and stablemate, SEVENTH STREET, and the white-hot SEATTLE SMOOTH.
Our Eyes: The best races of MUSIC NOTE's career clearly have come at Belmont Park, where she effortlessly dominated against some very nice 3-year-olds last year. She did not own the same finishing flair around two turns as she showcased in the one-turn routes at Belmont, and this distance of 1 1/16 miles around one turn absolutely is the perfect trip for a return from a long hiatus. It won't be too breakneck from a pace standpoint, and won't push the distance limits too far in the stretch.
MUSIC NOTE wants to sit third, a few lengths off the lead, and pounce. Given this race's look on paper, it could set up nicely for her, as the only real speed horses are SEVENTH STREET and COLOR ME UP. Long shots like NICKSAPPEALINGLADY and MY DINAH have some pressing speed and could get into the mix if hard-used, but that would only help the chances of the stalking MUSIC NOTE. In other words, it sets up pretty nicely for her.
But that same favorable pace could be applied to chief rival SEVENTH STREET. She could be fairly uncontested on the front end and would be awfully tough to reel in if allowed to do so. She made her two-turn debut a smashing success in a historically soft renewal of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. She's training like an absolute freak and will be extremely tough on the cut-back to the one-turn nature of the Phipps.
Jockey Ramon Dominguez on SEATTLE SMOOTH likely will have MUSIC NOTE in his crosshairs throughout, most often sitting a length or two further behind than MUSIC NOTE. Since coming east last year, the one-time Julio Canani trainee has never lost, rattling off the Go For Wand, Cotillion, Bed o' Roses and Shuvee in succession over four different tracks. I made a big bet on her in the Black-Eyed Susan last spring at Pimlico and eagerly anticipated her return east. She has been everything I expected and more since Tony Dutrow took over. She will certainly appreciate the additional ground of the Phipps vs. her initial two outings of the year at 7 furlongs and 1 mile.
The Bottom Line: New York's wagering rules requiring mutuel coupling for horses that share common ownership, even in Grade 1 stakes (which some states waive in big races), which necessitates a buzz-killing situation. Not only do SEVENTH STREET and MUSIC NOTE run as a pair, but Todd Pletcher's SEA CHANTER (owned by Darley) is added as a three-horse entry that should be 1-5 by post time, if not 1-9. It really deflates any chance to wager on this race and plummets the probable payouts in the exotics. Given the fact that I don't think there's a cavern between SEATTLE SMOOTH and the entry in terms of ability, if you put a squirt gun to my head and forced me to make a wager or else get soaked, I'd take a win bet on SEATTLE SMOOTH at anything over 5-2 odds, though it will be extremely tough to beat the entry. But I don't think you'll get $7 on the straight exacta, so you might as well hold out for value or just watch and enjoy a great exhibition.
Horseplayer PRO Alerts - live "horses to watch" e-mailed to your inbox every morning. This service is a simulcast player's dream. For a free one-week trial, e-mail us at staff@horseplayerpro.com.
Get more handicapping picks, analysis and tools at Horseplayerpro.com!
