First Flight scouting report
Sunday, June 28, Belmont Park
The Low-Down: All eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra in Saturday's Grade 1 Mother Goose, but from a handicapper's standpoint, we don't like rubbing dimes together with 1-5 shots. The top betting stakes from New York this weekend comes Sunday when a very balanced field of six sprints in the Grade 2 First Flight. Despite the short number of starters, all six come in off of sharp first- or second-place efforts, four earning Beyer figures of 95 or better. That adds up to a competitive field that will challenge bettors to separate and attack.
Our Eyes: Speed always is dangerous at Belmont sprinting, and typically is even more emphasized in short fields. The First Flight will have no shortage of speed among its first flight, that's for sure. Rail-drawn CAROLYN'S CAT can scat, wiring the Grade 2 Vagrancy last time out and making the early lead in five or her last six starts. She'll have SPRITELY breaking next door and potentially breathing down her neck throughout. SPRITELY has made the lead in each of her last five starts for Todd Pletcher. Meanwhile, SUNDAY GEISHA should be able to press from a wider draw in post five, coming off a scorching-fast runner-up try in the $250,000 My Juliet Handicap at Philadelphia Park. She's 44-and-change fast, and likely not to let anyone get out of her sights.
With half of the six-pace engaged early, a trio of finishers will need to be on their game to run down the classy speed. IRON BUTTERFLY comes in from Kentucky on a three-race win streak, rising from conditioned claimers to a strong third-level allowance win. TURN AWAY came from off the pace to win her only start of 2009, carrying the Juddmonte green and pink to victory in a May 29 allowance. She was third in the 2007 Golden Rod at Churchill as a baby, chasing eventual Grade 1 winner Pure Clan, so you know she has class if all together.
Finally, there's PORTE BONHEUR. Last summer, I thought this 3-year-old was developing into a serious Filly and Mare Sprint division superstar. While she was disappointing in her matchup with champion Indian Blessing, she came back to the races May 25 and ran a dynamite second to CAROLYN'S CAT in the Grade 2 Vagrancy despite a near seven-month layoff. Trainer David Duggan has her working dynamite since and the additional half-furlong and pace-pressure assist up front vs. CAROLYN'S CAT both play to PORTE BONHEUR's benefit.
The Bottom Line: We should get every bit of that 9-2 price PORTE BONHEUR sported in the Vagrancy and I make her the solid win play against a strong field. Separating the herd for the exacta will be tough and offer value if you can do it. Don't be afraid of two closers firing late in this seven-furlong affair, and consider TURN AWAY as an exotics threat.
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