Firecracker scouting report
Saturday, July 4, Churchill Downs
The Low-Down: THORN SONG, winner of the 2008 Firecracker Handicap, is back to defend his title against seven others who will try to deny him the repeat. One of two Grade 1 winners in the field, THORN SONG figures to get his sternest test from fellow Grade 1 winner MR. SIDNEY, who defeated him on the Keeneland grass course two back.
THORN SONG and MR. SIDNEY are the obvious class of the bunch, but there are several other graded stakes winners including WISE RIVER and TIZDEJAVU, who returned in stylish fashion from a nine month break to score an allowance win here in May.
Our Eyes: Most of the major threats do their best running on the front end, which could make for a bit of a cat-and-mouse game by the riders. THORN SONG is a speedy type who runs his best races on the engine, but so do TIZDEJAVU and INCA KING. Throw in the fact that nearly all the other major contenders run from close, stalking spots, and there's a solid chance this one could boil over up front.
Though knocking a two-time Grade 1 winner in an event like this is not usually a prudent thing to do, THORN SONG appears to be a major play-against in the Firecracker. He's a hot-and-cold type, and though he dug in quite gamely in his last, he's proven equally likely to throw in the towel when headed. He figures to get some pressure up front, and that could leave him vulnerable down the lane. Will take a major stand against him in this spot and leave him off the tickets.
MR. SIDNEY has always shown quite a bit of promise, and he finally lived up to it with that Makers Mark tally in April. He's a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance on the grass, and that Belmont dirt flop last out can be entirely forgiven, leaving him with quite and impressive bag of running lines. He runs like a comfortable, stalking type who figures to get possibly the best trip in here and he should be in a perfect spot to take advantage when the speed begins to back up.
WISE RIVER could be the sneaky price play. He's a great horse to watch, and he has a really comfortable stride that always inspires lots of confidence. He's got a stalking gear, and that should allow him to spy the pace from just behind those who will do battle up front and he should be able to go when his rider asks. He doesn't earn big numbers very often, but he's as honest as they come and can be counted on for a game effort.
As for some of the others, TIZDEJAVU could move forward off that good comeback effort, but he too will have to deal with the early pace scenario, and though SEASPEAK is a half-length away from entering this on a four-race win streak, it's not really clear that he beat anything in that win last out in which he couldn't have sat an easier trip. ARTIC CRY should bounce back off that dull try last out, and this mile trip should be right up his alley from just off the pace, and PASSAGER should be rolling late and may just be in need of a little bit of luck.
The Bottom Line: I'll hope for a bit of a price and use WISE RIVER heavily in a race that seems to set up quite well for him. I'll play an exacta box of WISE RIVER and MR. SIDNEY, and then I'll key WISE RIVER on top of TIZDEJAVU, SEASPEAK, ARTIC CRY and the late-running PASSAGER.
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