Alabama Stakes scouting report
Saturday, Aug. 22, Saratoga Race Course
The Low-Down: Let's hope all of you ESPN.com readers followed last week's 33-1 winner in the Sword Dancer, Telling! Now, what to do for an encore? Let's head back to the Spa.
Outside of Rachel Alexandra, there have been no world-beaters in the 3-year-old filly division this season. The Alabama is a Grade I race, but much like the Coaching Club American Oaks run four weeks earlier at Belmont, the quality does not match the class designation. Not many of these are built to be 10 furlong performers, so much like the CCA, the result of the Alabama may come down to a battle of wills.
Our Eyes: FUNNY MOON won the CCA over fellow Alabama rivals DON'T FORGET GIL, WYNNING RIDE and CASANOVA MOVE, and just a 1 ¼ lengths separated that quartet at the wire. CARELESS JEWEL has rattled off three straight scores, most recently posting a powerful romp in the Grade II Delaware Oaks at overlay odds of 10-1. Perhaps she was such a big price because her previous three runs had come over synthetics. She proved, without a shadow of a doubt, that she can handle dirt too. BE FAIR shook off a late spring/summer slump to win the Grade III Lake George three weeks ago at Saratoga, but she defeated just three rivals over a sloppy strip. MILWAUKEE APPEAL, one of Canada's top fillies, more than held her own against he boys in the Queen's Plate and Prince of Wales, losing heartbreaking decisions in both.
CARELESS JEWEL set a fast pace in the Delaware Oaks, but still extended her advantage to the wire. With an alert break, she should have no problem making the lead in this event. Fellow Canadian MILWAUKEE APPEAL should be positioned in the chasing cue, along with CASANOVA MOVE and BE FAIR.
FUNNY MOON overcame a wide trip to score a game win in the CCA, but I'm not a big fan of that race. MILWAUKEE APPEAL is better than ever right now, and she's a game stayer. The horse with the most upside is CARELESS JEWEL. She's improved with every start, and it's tough to ignore her Delaware Oaks romp. She's never run this far, but she showed no signs of slowing down in either of her route races. If she runs back the Delaware Oaks, the rest of these will be forced to compete for minor awards.
BE FAIR probably won't get much respect off her Lake George win, but I like the way she performed over the winter at Oaklawn, and she appears to be headed back in the right direction. Unlike most of these, her pedigree suggests a potential like for 10 furlongs.
The Bottom Line: In this game, you are either for or against horses, or races. I'm not a big fan of the CCA result, so I'm going to steer clear of the horses exiting that slowly run Grade I. I'll be playing CARELESS JEWEL to win, and boxing her in exactas with MILWAUKEE APPEAL and BE FAIR.
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