Kentucky Derby picks

Jay takes his annual stab at picking the world's most famous race, the Kentucky Derby.

Updated: May 5, 2006, 8:21 PM ET
By Jay Cronley | Special to ESPN.com

So I get it down to four that could win, four that should win, and three that might win, and now this: the possibility of a floating track bias.

Half a chance of rain is predicted to and through the Derby weekend in Louisville.

Rain here and there can make a bias change during a race.

Here is the field inside-out by post position, reasons for and opposed.

1. Jazil

Reasons For: Well, huge price. Direct route.

Against: Too late.

2. Steppenwolfer

For: Same as above.

Against: Similar to above; only later.

3. Keyed Entry

For: Beat First Samurai. Was chalk in Wood. Better than any lousy 30-1.

Against: Under the avalanche, between a rock and a harder place, bad post. Might have to hustle too much.

4. Sinister Minister

For: No trouble up there.

Against: One-trick pony.

5. Point Determined

For: Improving with increased distances. Lightly raced. Perfect stalking style. Position A in post.

Against: Trendy pick among tube all-stars. Never discount Curse of the Experts.

6. Showing up

For: Under the radar.

Against: Barely hard of those it vanquished.

7. Bob and John

For: Consistent stalker.

Against: Owner passed on Reggie Bush.

8. Barbaro

For: Has guts. Familiar with crowds. Lightly raced. Should fit well in hurricane’s eye, between speeders and closers.

Against: Southeast circuit not so frightening. Only third on dirt. Trained for fox hunt circuit? Off five weeks after being off eight weeks.

9. Sharp Humor

For: Quick.

Against: Too quick.

10. A.P. Warrior

For: Almost ran over Brother Derek at a mile and a sixteenth.

Against: Record of 0-3 versus Derek.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint

For: Four straight Beyers in the hundreds.

Against: Hasn’t beaten much. Another trendy pick.

12. Private Vow

For: Has win at the Church.

Against: Couldn’t scare Ron.

13. Bluegrass Cat

For: Well-named.

Against: Last two quirky.

14. Deputy Glitters

For: Fits with the 13 horse.

Against: Fits with the 13.

15. Seaside Retreat

For: Well-shaped.

Against: Slow.

16. Cause to Believe

For: Serious about closing.

Against: Six wins only produced $390,000.

17. Lawyer Ron

For: Flexible. Has the most impressive power move in the field. Discounted by so-called racing elite.

Against: Headstrong. Seen better posts. Finishes casually.

18. Brother Derek

For: Beat lots of these. Far-out post puts him in stalking mode.

Against: No yawning lead here. There are more horses in this race than BD faced in his last three, total.

19. Storm Treasure

For: Personable.

Against: Maiden winner.

20. Flashy Bull

For: Room to his right.

Against: Best Beyer puts him in second half.

All-purpose, multi-faced, potpourri box featuring selections from speed, stalking and closing categories: Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, Keyed Entry.

1. Barbaro
2. Point Determined
3. Keyed Entry

Kentucky Derby television coverage begins Saturday, May 6 at 5 p.m. ET on NBC Sports.

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