Derby Listening Post
The day before yesterday, I was only a handful of bets and a few lengths from $9,000 and change.
That's nothing.
A friend of mine was this close to hauling home around $11,000. A wino was one horse off something like $4,500. A lawyer just missed a $300 Exacta with a fifty-dollar bill. A friend of a bum needed but one horse to hit an IRS Super. And an acquaintance of a neighbor had one runner slightly out of place in a monster tri.
And that was just in one corner of the simulcast joint over the weekend.
Right now, somebody is staring at his or her tickets and realizing that with an extra bet of $36, the pool could have been singly drained, not split in a hundred directions; right now, somebody is thinking that if I moved this horse up a half a length, and that one back a third of a length, I could have been even for the century; somebody is thinking that all I had to do to pay the back rent was hit the All button.
There's a tendency for most horse players to think that he or she has more near-misses than almost anybody else.
But that's not right, it's a tie, it's the nature of the animal, all good horse players have almost won $100,000 since Y2K. What coming close to something of a fortune means is that you're actually a pretty good handicapper. Idiots seldom almost win a lot. Idiots win $9 Exactas. Coming close to a big tri should mean that you hit a good Exacta. Almost winning beats, by a long shot, not coming close. Almost winning good money means that you were unlucky. As every sportsperson knows, if you keep at the game, luck balances itself. So having your guts turned upside-down by a trainer who should have his papers revoked, or having your heart sent aflutter by a rider far less intelligent than his or her steed, are actually good signs; if you live, and if you keep going to the track. Lucky victories seem well deserved and are recycled and exhaled as routine. Near-misses are forever stored in the hippocampus.
Near-misses are difficult to avoid because you never know when they're coming.
Here are several ways to deal with the Near-Miss Syndrome.
Make a win bet
If you're right about a 15-1 horse, you have to get paid. If a lone win wager on a 15-1 shot isn't enough, then you don't get to complain about almost winning a lot more.
Use the All button
Forget what the purists think. Purity has nothing do with hitting a big tri, anyway.
Knowing when to hit the "All" switch is like a funky art form, performance art over the classics. I am apt to hit it when I love something surrounded by the blatantly unpredictable. The All button tends to get expensive; and tends to attracts cheap favorites, go figure.
This month is all about getting ready for the Kentucky Derby. The field is filling with a number of runners of similar high quality, and you know what that means: more expert picks to run lines through.
Here are some common Derby handicapping mistakes
Don't forget, this should be National Hug A Slot Machine Player Month.
Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.
