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Editor's Note: Countdown to the Crown returns for its fourth season as one of the most comprehensive handicapper's analyses of the 3-year-old scene. Posted each Friday from Jan. 1 through the Belmont Stakes, Countdown keeps you apprised of the rising stars in the sophomore class from the maiden ranks to the Grade 1 stakes. Click on the links below for videos and past performances, courtesy of Equibase.

3 things you won't read anywhere else

Opinions are like a tub of movie theater popcorn. You prefer them salty, even if they're not that good for you.

1. The drama continued last week in the Larry Jones barn as the white-hatter replaced star jockey Ramon Dominguez with journeyman Terry Thompson aboard OLD FASHIONED. I know Thompson originally had the mount; and I know he leads the Oaklawn colony. And, I know Dominguez himself was not happy with his Rebel ride. But this also is the trainer that said Gabby Saez was headed to the Hall of Fame after last year's Kentucky Oaks, and owner Rick Porter has a history of big-name changes, having already fired trainers John Servis and Nick Zito. Dominguez is one of the top five or 10 riders in the game, period. You're not moving a horse up by replacing Dominguez; you're either out-thinking yourself or redirecting blame.

2. Wonder if George Steinbrenner seeks any patent infringement against IEAH Stables? I thought he had the copyright on brash New Yorkers desperate to buy a championship. In case you missed it, IEAH now seeks to go halfsies on I WANT REVENGE.

3. From our weekly "Can he handle dirt?" department: Of the 16 all-time Kentucky Derby starters to exit an all-weather track final prep, only four were sent away at 20-1 odds or less on Derby Day. Those four ran first, second, sixth and eighth -- not too shabby. Of course, you'll only hear about the 12 that ran terribly, even though they hailed from a group of huge-priced bombs with no respect.

This week's fearless forecast

This section includes a preview of the coming week's 3-year-old races to watch. It's all about the east -- the east coast and the Middle East to be specific. Saturday's duo of the G1 Florida Derby and G3 United Arab Emirates Derby figures prominently on the road to Louisville. After all, recent Florida Derby champs Barbaro and Big Brown have been fitted for two of the past three garlands of roses at Churchill Downs. And if that's not enough, there's a bundle of money up for grabs Sunday in New Mexico.

As noted last week, the undercard attention wanes as we move forward. We have two for you to watch later today (Friday) in Santa Anita's second race and Oaklawn's eighth. On the left coast, Bob Baffert puts ZENSATIONAL in a five-horse allowance route after toying with the idea of a major stakes. ZENSATIONAL was one of the most impressive maiden breakers so far this year when returning from a long layoff Feb. 21. Like PIONEEROF THE NILE, he debuted at Saratoga last summer for Bill Mott. At Oaklawn, D. Wayne Lukas brings HAMAZING DESTINY back after a terrible route debut in the G2 Rebel, trying to get additional route seasoning before rejoining the stakes ranks.

Note that Saturday's Florida Derby Day program also includes sophomore sprinters in the G3 Swale, where BIG DRAMA makes his 2009 return in search of a sixth straight win. The 7-furlong opposition includes Rick Dutrow's enigmatic THIS ONES FOR PHIL and a very dangerous BRAVE VICTORY, who has been perfectly aimed for this by Nick Zito. The undercard also includes the expected graduation for NICANOR, Barbaro's little brother, in a Race 5 maiden mile on dirt. Meanwhile, we'll get more of a line on Florida Derby favorite DUNKIRK after the day's second race. That's when SANTANA SIX squares off against allowance foes. The Nick Zito trainee was second to DUNKIRK in his debut before a strong return win next time out.

No Triple Crown contenders are expected to come out of Saturday's San Miguel at Santa Anita. The 6-furlong sprint features the return of G2 Saratoga Special third-place finisher REYNALDOTHEWIZARD, as well as an expected major rebound from impressive debut winner GOTMYMOJOWORKIN for John Sadler.

G1 Florida Derby (Saturday/Gulfstream):

For DUNKIRK, it's as simple as this: one-two or you're through.

That's the crux of Saturday's $750,000 Florida Derby, where the new purse can't be underscored enough. Third money used to be, in the $1 million purse era, a $100,000 payday and be just about what you would need to be on the fringe of the Kentucky Derby starting gate. This year, second money will be $150,000, and even then you'll have to suck in your waistline to make sure you fit through the entry box in Louisville. Third dough at $75,000 won't be good enough if you don't have prior graded earnings.

The purse situation will sort itself out after the race, but before the competitors finish their nine-furlong test, they'll also have to tote the 122-pound assignment. QUALITY ROAD and THEREGOESJOJO pick up eight and six pounds, respectively, off their one-two finish last month in the Fountain of Youth, while DUNKIRK already has won at the distance under 122 pounds. That's quite an increase for the former pair to be saddled with in their first attempts around two turns.

The Florida Derby comes down to four horses. How you stack DUNKIRK's amazing allowance win at nine panels against the Fountain of Youth pair answers most all handicapping questions in the race. Late entrant DANGER TO SOCIETY adds the only spruce of intriguing outside flavor.

I'm skeptical in this modern era when I see a horse debut in the spring of his 2-year-old in a dash. Because THEREGOESJOJO (Equibase PPs) was unveiled at five panels last May, it's reasonable to think he was short on expectations and considered a win-early type who could bag some juvenile money before any serious Derby considerations commenced. Now we're supposed to believe he's suddenly a classic contender after one strong performance in a mile stakes around one turn? He seemed to be at his very best when running down QUALITY ROAD in their 7-furlong allowance showdown in January. 'JOJO would be dangerously close to the graded earnings threshold with a third-place finish, and can secure his date in Louisville by running one-two. I'll admit I have been hot and cold on this horse from week-to-week. I still don't know where I stand.

QUALITY ROAD has the pedigree that defines today's superstar. Pair that tremendous miler's speed on top by Elusive Quality with a route-loving, blue-blooded dam and you're at least in the right formula. But you won't get up-and-comer value with 'ROAD. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens takes more sharpie money than any conditioner in America, and when he's live, he's under-laid on the toteboard. DUNKIRK should go favored, but QUALITY ROAD will be a standout second choice at a number likely below 2-to-1. Don't expect Jimmy Jerkens to try and teach any lessons here. He's not affixed to pursuing Derby and Breeders' Cup glory; he's a day-in, day-out horseman who will take the $750,000 purse if handed to him and not get cute by "over-coaching" like some others would in this spot. He's safely in the Derby field already with $150,000 in graded earnings and has missed a work due to the weather, the lone cautions about him.

DUNKIRK's 1:50 flat allowance win after a wide trip, toting 120 pounds, could very well be enough to win this. He does not need to move forward, simply maintain that performance. I can't see anyone else here breaking 1:50. What he gives away in experience, he regains in the match-up debate with his proven performance at the trip. And this supremely bred son of Unbridled's Song out of Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Status appears to be getting stronger with each a.m. drill. He worked in company with superstar-turfer-in-waiting AFFIRMATIF on Saturday at Palm Meadows, coming home in a lively :23 1/5 while galloping out stronger than his stablemate. DUNKIRK figures to be the horse to beat, especially since QUALITY ROAD's once-perceived pace advantage was neutralized somewhat by the entry of Todd Pletcher's rabbit EUROPE and longshot sprint winner CASEY'S ON CALL.

DANGER TO SOCIETY had been pointed to the Wood since trainer Rick Dutrow took over his conditioning. Working extremely well, he became a Florida Derby player with the defection of BEETHOVEN. It might also be noteworthy that top Dutrow client IEAH Stables is trying to buy leading Wood contender I WANT REVENGE. Even though these horses would be owned and trained by different parties, it's reasonable to think Dutrow wouldn't exactly be lining up to try and beat his meal-ticket owners. I'm very high on DANGER, but a wide draw and recent 10-day gap in his workout tab are troublesome for this spot. Still, he lives up to his ominous name.

As we like to do in the two-turn races, here's a look at the projected Florida Derby pace scenario:

G3 UAE Derby (Saturday/Nad al Sheba):

Only the Godolphin trio of DESERT PARTY, REGAL RANSOM and JOSE ADAN are Triple Crown considerations, so we'll keep the analysis to the point. None of the three go out of their way to scream "classic distance horse," but DESERT PARTY (Equibase PPs) sure looked good finishing the one-mile UAE 2000 Guineas last month. He's strictly the one to beat even in a field featuring multiple Southern Hemisphere-bred 4-year-olds.

The 2000 Guineas finish was an exact replica of the Ford Flex Trophy in January, though DESERT PARTY extended his advantage over his stablemate REGAL RANSOM with an additional furlong of distance. Given REGAL RANSOM's complete meltdown in the two-turn G1 Norfolk last fall the separation figures to grow more with the 9-furlong distance of the UAE Derby. I prefer JOSE ADAN for the back half of the exacta from this match-up.

The likelihood of an upset comes only from outside the Big Blue camp. French-based NAVAL OFFICER, a Kentucky-bred by Tale of the Cat, has never raced on dirt, but is perhaps the classiest colt in the field. He's proven at the distance and needed his last start when finishing well. If he takes to the dirt, he's the only puncher who can score the KO.

Without complete running lines for the international competitors, it's folly to try and develop a pace scenario for the UAE Derby. Expect DESERT PARTY to be prominent among the first five and see how the chips fall.

Sunland Park Derby (Sunday/Sunland Park):

It's doubtful we'll see this race impact the Derby scene given the lack of graded status. Its $800,000 purse makes for a big payday, thus creating a full-blown field of 12 from the West and Midwest. Note that a $100,000 bonus goes to the winner if that runner has any previous graded stakes earnings, so Todd Pletcher's ADVICE, Bennie Wooley's MINE THAT BIRD and Mike Machowsky's KELLY LEAK are running for additional coin.

KELLY LEAK rates the horse to beat based on his smashing turf performance Feb. 22 and back class. Disqualified from the win in the G2 Best Pal last summer, he's a stone-cold finisher around one turn or two. While not a pure, 9-furlong horse, he's found the right spot in that none of his Sunland competitors appear capable of really throwing down the gauntlet the last 220 yards. The local prep, the Borderland Derby, crept home at 1 1/16 miles, and four of its top five finishers will find the waters much deeper Sunday.

Doug O'Neill has twice won this race, so he comes in prepared with both MARK S THE COOOLER and SCOREWITHCATER, the latter's Borderland Derby win was a slugfest with MINE THAT BIRD. The runner-up was coming off a long layoff and needed the race; thus 'BIRD gets the word in the rematch from this corner. MARK S THE COOLER has shown a brilliant turn of foot on turf, but simply does not look the same on the Pro-Ride. His breeding does not suggest dirt will be the elixir, and I'm rooting for him to get back on the green soon.

If the Californian KELLY LEAK can't get the distance, though I think he will, a pair of fellow west coasters from the Bob Baffert barn certainly could rise. MAYOR MARV is one of my favorite horses this season, but he's certainly not brilliant. He'll try from the opening bell, but should take some real pace heat Saturday. There's some reason for less love of MAYOR MARV (Equibase PPs), winner of the Turf Paradise Derby. PAUPER'S PRIZE, fifth after a troubled trip to 'MARV in Phoenix, returned back home to Santa Anita on Saturday and laid an egg in a maiden sprint, beating one horse at even-money. Baffert's other Sunland Derby entrant, MYTHICAL POWER, lures Garrett Gomez to ride, but has some real distance questions. He ran down a speedball stablemate last time who just isn't a two-turn powerhouse.

ADVICE rates the wildcard here with John Velazquez venturing west. Placed in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity at age two, ADVICE adds blinkers after lugging in Feb. 26 in his Santa Anita comeback attempt. There's no reason to think this one won't take to the dirt, but his Chapel Royal/Hennessy pedigree lines don't suggest he'll run on very far against top-shelf foes. At this class level, he might be able to get the nine panels based on his running style and class.

As we like to do in the two-turn races, here's a look at the projected Sunland Park Derby pace scenario:

Who's heading where?

This section projects the key horses for upcoming stakes of repute. These are not firm commitments, merely a mix of my speculation and news gathering.

4/4 Santa Anita Derby: CHOCOLATE CANDY, FEISTY SUANCES, MR. HOT STUFF, PIONEEROF THE NILE, TAKE THE POINTS (more likely Blue Grass), THE PAMPLEMOUSSE

4/4 Illinois Derby: AL KHALI, FREE COUNTRY, GALLANT SON, LORD JUSTICE, MUSKET MAN (or Wood), MR. FANTASY (most likely Wood), OMNISCIENT (or Arkansas)

4/4 Wood Memorial: ATOMIC RAIN, DANGER TO SOCIETY (entered Florida Derby), FLYING PEGASUS, HELLO BROADWAY (doubtful), IMPERIAL COUNCIL, I WANT REVENGE, JUST A COINCIDENCE, LIME RICKEY, MR. FANTASY (or Illinois), MUSKET MAN (or Illinois), NOWHERE TO HIDE, WEST SIDE BERNIE

4/11 Blue Grass: BEAR'S ROCKET, CHARITABLE MAN, CLIFFY'S FUTURE, EL CRESPO, FLYING PRIVATE (or Lexington, Wood, Arkansas), GENERAL QUARTERS, GIANT OAK, HOLD ME BACK (or Kentucky Derby), JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI, MAFAAZ, PATENA, STORMALORY, TAKE THE POINTS (or Santa Anita), TERRAIN (or Lexington)

4/11 Arkansas Derby: CAPTAIN CHEROKEE, DANGER TO SOCIETY (entered Florida Derby), FLAT OUT, FLYING PRIVATE (or Lexington, Wood, Blue Grass), OLD FASHIONED, OMNISCIENT (or Illinois), PAPA CLEM, POLTERGEIST, SOUL WARRIOR, WIN WILLY

4/18 Lexington: CLIFFY'S FUTURE (or Blue Grass), FLYING PRIVATE (or Blue Grass, Wood, Arkansas), JERANIMO, JOIN IN THE DANCE, SQUARE EDDIE (or train up to Kentucky Derby), SUMO, TERRAIN (or Blue Grass)

Everyone's a critic

This section recaps the week that was. Prep race? I don't need no stinkin' prep race! HOLD ME BACK, off since last November's Remsen, went from off-the-radar to front-and-center by taking Saturday's G2 Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park. I misread his work tab completely and tip the cap to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who had this one plenty tight enough despite a few minor gaps in training time. Mott was looking to get a good bottom into the horse for the Blue Grass, but turns out, he might have a direct line on the Kentucky Derby now and not ripple the waters any further.

HOLD ME BACK (Equibase PPs) came off Turfway's far turn and collared the pacesetters, who held on well. The Giant's Causeway colt was the only closer to make a serious dent in the Lane's End, as the horses running 2-3-4 throughout held to finish 2-3-4 at the wire. This was a visual train wreck of a race, one that looked like nearly every contender was completely spinning his wheels turning for home, including the winner. But as poor as it looked visually, HOLD ME BACK still got his fourth quarter in the upper :23s, just smoking, and the final furlong in approximately :12 flat, a very good finishing fraction. The final time of 1:49.63 was the second-fastest in the four years of the Polytrack era, and only a length off of Hard Spun's 2007 standard. That's solid company to say the least. What might have he done had he actually gotten a good hold of the track?

I like the fact that HOLD ME BACK and runner-up FLYING PRIVATE put more than five lengths between them and the rest of the herd, which often does not happen on the all-weather. But pacesetter ORTHODOX took this group along through strong, dirt-like fractions for the distance, and thus you see a more "common" spread at the wire. "Countdown" readers know that I attribute many of the all-weather "myths" to pace, and this is another example that pace directly impacts things such as the "herding" effect. Chasing that strong pace also had much to do with the visual ugliness of a group of horses who could not corner the final turn with any zest.

HOLD ME BACK might be best-suited to just take Mott's legendary training cues and attempt the Derby off this effort. Without racing in four-plus months, for him to try and push another prep like the Blue Grass after this strong performance could work against him. Running again would make three races, all nine furlongs or more, in a six-week span with no prior racing foundation under him. That's a lot to ask. If anyone in America can train a horse to win at 10 furlongs off of one prep race in what turns out to be nearly six months, it's Mott. Runner-up FLYING PRIVATE lived up to the "Countdown" bet-back special expectations for D. Wayne Lukas, being clearly second-best here at 27-1 odds after a strong run at Oaklawn. Let's hope you used him with the winner. The $100,000 he earned for running second likely won't be enough to get into the dance, and this horse is one of the most seasoned runners on the trail this year. He can handle another bout, and his first-time Polytrack performance has to make him a legitimate candidate on any surface. Lukas has taken him back to Oaklawn to train with the Arkansas Derby, Wood, Lexington and Blue Grass all considered.

Wrapping the Lane's End, only WEST SIDE BERNIE would be a Derby discussion among the rest. He ran a very flat sixth, but hinted to a dull performance with a light workout tab -- just three drills in seven weeks. With enough earnings in the bank, he's been coddled along to just show up in Louisville. He just doesn't excite me now, then or later. Now the talk is he might run in the Wood. BITTEL ROAD was dreadful, further continuing my inability to get any grasp on the Todd Pletcher barn. "Countdown" readers of past years know this all too well (good luck, DUNKIRK, I'm picking you!).

Turfway's supporting stakes for the Lane's End, the listed Rushaway, produced a clear-cut winner in Florida raider CLIFFY'S FUTURE. Privately purchased by Silverton Hill Farm after bombing on Tampa's dirt, he figured to be a Polytrack player for that outfit, who's training center features Polytrack and looks for horses to succeed on the surface. These connections went Rushaway-to-Blue Grass in 2007 with Dominican, but CLIFFY's effort looked nothing visually like his predecessor; he's a cut below Dominican and would be best-served trying the Lexington against Grade 2-types.

At Laurel, Saturday's path to the Preakness saw a carousel of sorts in the one-mile Private Terms. Heavily favored Triple Crown nominee NOT FOR SILVER was unable to punch past front-running ST. JOHN'S GOSPEL after a slow pace. Neither seems a slam dunk to improve as the Federico Tesio offers a two-turn test at Pimlico next, however, seven of the last 19 winners of the Private Terms have made the Preakness starting gate, including Magic Weisner, the 2002 runner-up.

The key undercard horse last week was Saturday's Gulfstream Race 1 allowance winner CHECKLIST. The highly impressive debut winner returned off a long layoff to score nearly wire-to-wire in 1:17.33 for 6 1/2 furlongs. By Gone West out of Yearly Report, he's got tons of pedigree and should route, but did not finish with any flair here suggesting that a G2 Lexington date at 1 1/16 miles would not be within his reach yet. Perhaps the one-turn Withers would set him up best for a spring/summer run. Todd Pletcher's barn also book-ended the Saturday card with debut victor DISGUISE, who came home in a shade over :24 to win a quick maiden sprint in the slop. The Dixie Union colt might be a serious sprinter to watch as he was the only closer to make a splash in this race. CAPE MARCO wins easily next out for Nick Zito from this heat.

Rubber-necking

Each week we provide a race video worth a second look. As CHARITABLE MAN trains toward a possible return at Keeneland in a few weeks, it's been a while since we saw the 'MAN put a beat-down on now Kentucky Derby hotshot FRIESAN FIRE. Here's the Futurity at Belmont as we renew acquaintances.

Quick hitters

BEETHOVEN, who suffered a front left leg injury this week according to John Ward, was forced to miss the Florida Derby and his Triple Crown status certainly is muddied. Ward is not one to push a horse, so my lean would be toward him sliding off the trail ... Trainer Doug O'Neill said this week the Kentucky Derby is still on his mind for SQUARE EDDIE, the BC Juvenile runner-up who was sidelined in early February with sore shins. 'EDDIE had his first official breeze Sunday at Hollywood, getting three panels in :37.40 and is slated to work again Monday ... IMPERIAL COUNCIL, sent back south to Payson Park after the Gotham by Shug McGaughey, breezed a :51.80 half-mile on Saturday ... Smarty Jones Stakes winner and Arkansas Derby hopeful FLAT OUT (Equibase PPs) made it back to the worktab for the first time since early February, breezing a slow five-eighths Sunday at Oaklawn in 1:03.60 as he returns from a bruised front right heel ... CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN will be heading back to sprints, aimed at the Bay Shore on the Wood undercard ... From the workout camp, next week's Santa Anita Derby showdown between THE PAMPLEMOUSSE and PIONEEROF THE NILE appears to be all 'NILE right now as the 'MOUSSE has been struggling late in his past two drills, according to reports coming from the clockers at Horseplayerpro.com.

High fives

Jeremy Plonk's Top 5-rated performances this year by class (Dec. 26-present):

Maiden Race
1. AFFIRMATIF -- Gulfstream 2/28 (turf)
2. ZENSATIONAL -- Santa Anita 2/21
3. ECHO IN ETERNITY -- Gulfstream 1/31 (turf sprint)
4. SOUL WARRIOR -- Fair Grounds 12/29
5. MR. HOT STUFF -- Santa Anita 2/1

Allowance Race
1. MR. FANTASY -- Aqueduct 2/1
2. DUNKIRK -- Gulfstream 2/19
3. THEREGOESJOJO -- Gulfstream 1/10
4. IMPERIAL COUNCIL -- Gulfstream 2/14
5. CAPTAIN CHEROKEE -- Fair Grounds 2/14

Stakes Race
1. FRIESAN FIRE -- Louisiana Derby 3/14
2. I WANT REVENGE -- Gotham 3/7
3. THE PAMPLEMOUSSE -- Sham 2/28
4. NOTONTHESAMEPAGE -- Spectacular Bid 1/3
5. PIONEEROF THE NILE -- Lewis Memorial 2/7

Stakes selections

G1 Florida Derby Picks:
1- #4 DUNKIRK
2- #2 QUALITY ROAD
3- #7 DANGER TO SOCIETY

G3 UAE Derby Picks:
1- #5 DESERT PARTY
2- #12 NAVAL OFFICER
3- #10 JOSE ADAN

G3 Swale Picks:
1- #5 BRAVE VICTORY
2- #4 CUSTOM FOR CARLOS
3- #1 THIS ONES FOR PHIL

Sunland Park Derby Picks:
1- #8 KELLY LEAK
2- #9 MINE THAT BIRD
3- #3 ADVICE

How did we do last week?
No luck in the Lane's End, though second choice FLYING PRIVATE ran a bang-up second at 27-1; third choice CLIFFY'S FUTURE pulled the Rushaway upset.

How are we doing on the season?
10-for-33 (30 percent) with top pick; 17-for-33 (51 percent) with top two picks.

Put 'em in the gate

Can't wait for May 2? This section ranks my Top 20 and puts horses in the gate if the race was this weekend. Remember, this isn't about how they'll be on Derby Day, but rather how they rate today with Derby ability at 1-1/4 miles a main factor. This will be a fluid list over the spring.

Think I'm off my rocker? Send your Top 20 list to me, jeremy@horseplayerpro.com, and I'll pick one fan's list each week to appear in Countdown to the Crown right next to mine. Please put "TOP 20" in the subject line and include your state of residence!

Jeremy's top 20: 13th week of the season

Dropped out this week: Bittel Road, Beethoven, Mr. Fantasy

Reader-submitted top 20: Gina from Newark, Del.

What happens in Vegas

This section highlights the steamers in the Las Vegas future book odds. Odds updated March 23, 2009, here.

Wynn Las Vegas Derby Favorites
FRIESAN FIRE ... 7-1
PIONEEROF THE NILE ... 10-1
DUNKIRK ... 10-1
THE PAMPLEMOUSSE ... 10-1
I WANT REVENGE ... 12-1
QUALITY ROAD ... 12-1
OLD FASHIONED ... 14-1
THEREGOESJOJO ... 20-1
DESERT PARTY ... 20-1
PAPA CLEM ... 25-1
IMPERIAL COUNCIL ... 25-1
BEETHOVEN ... 25-1
CHOCOLATE CANDY ... 25-1

COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN is the ONLY major racing column where you can find the line of Johnny Avello, Vegas' premier oddsmaker!

Jeremy Plonk has been an ESPN.com contributor since 2000. You can email Jeremy about Countdown to the Crown or anything racing related at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.