Blue Grass Stakes scouting report
Saturday, April 11, Keeneland
The Low-Down: Here we go again with another Polytrack head-scratcher full of deep-closing turf horses, right? Truth is, you couldn't be further from the truth. Horseplayers must forget those tired notions that Keeneland's Polytrack is exclusively for closers. Front-end speed has been seriously tough so far this young meeting and route stakes races historically have been extremely kind to horses with tactical speed.
Don't believe me? The Polycapping database at Keeneland.com shows the facts; and it reveals that 28 route stakes have been run over this surface heading into the weekend, and only five winners were more than five lengths behind after the opening half-mile. More recently, as jockeys have begun to ride the surface more like dirt racing with more honest fractions, we've seen that 10 of the last 12 Polytrack route stakes winners were no more than a mere 1 1/2 lengths off the lead after a half-mile.
Saturday's 11-horse lineup conceivably could produce as many as five Kentucky Derby starters when you factor in the existing horses safely in the Derby field by earnings (Terrain, Hold Me Back), those looming with a decent finish (Theregoesjojo, General Quarters, Charitable Man) and the automatic qualifier from England, Mafaaz. A second-place or better finish also could punch a ticket for horses like Patena or Join in the Dance.
Our Eyes: Pace and trip figure to be critical in this bulky, 11-horse field, unlike what we saw last weekend in New York and California where mismatched horses and smallish fields severely limited the impact of racing luck. A bad break, trip or stumble here could seal the deal. Of the horses with the most early speed and able to avoid the chaos, Join in the Dance rates as a question mark at the distance, while Charitable Man, though highly talented and working like a beast, is a complete unknown going from New York juvenile sprints to the fitness demands of a Polytrack route under 123 pounds. The horse who can sit a pressing third in the Blue Grass figures to be the one to beat unless Charitable Man is a complete and utter freak.
Candidates for that prime real estate include rail-drawn Patena, who was under-trained heading into the Louisiana Derby because he suffered from a well publicized cough for about 10 days leading up to his unveiling for Rick Dutrow. Don't use the sloppy track as an excuse for him in New Orleans, he was moving smartly throughout and was actually a dangerous third nearing the top of the stretch in-between chart calls. He simply ran out of gas. Dutrow got a pair of works into him since then, well-spaced and he should have no excuses if he's good enough. Prior to the Louisiana Derby, I had him ranked No. 2 nationally based on his fluid stride and supreme pedigree. He has to prove his way back into my favor, but he could rise with a bullet if he does so.
Among the closers, Theregoesjojo tries an all-weather surface for the first time and will help give us a line on Florida Derby 1-2 finishers Quality Road and Dunkirk. But if he fails to fire and rejects the surface, it won't be a slap at the Gulfstream runners one bit. I would have preferred to see 'Jojo in next week's Lexington in an easier spot at a distance more suited to the best races on his form, but I can understand the fact that there's only one Blue Grass! Note that Floridians are having a monster meet at Keeneland in the opening few days -- on both turf and Polytrack.
The closers I'll be most interested in are Terrain and Hold Me Back, but neither needs to run a dynamite "winning" race to advance to the dance. Expect them both to come running at the end and make a superfecta bid at worst. The way Julien Leparoux is riding at Keeneland, Terrain certainly is in the best hands of anyone in the lineup. And speaking of the "good hands" people, trainer John Gosden has as much respect from this corner as any conditioner on the Derby trail. The maligned Kentucky Derby Challenge race from England may have some scoffing, but until I see Mafaaz outclassed by less-trained and over-medicated Americans, I'm from the belief that he had better be respected.
The Bottom Line: The big-race betting public that does not follow Keeneland daily still has not caught on to the pace facts outlined above. That's why favorites are just 2-for-28 in Polytrack stakes routes all-time. Take advantage of the national audience that is stuck in its 2006 thinking about this surface and land a square price on a horse with some tactical speed. For me, that's Patena, utilizing a strong win-place play at a solid price. For the exotics, I'll sprinkle in Terrain, Hold Me Back and Mafaaz.
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