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Editor's Note: Countdown to the Crown returns for its fourth season as one of the most comprehensive handicapper's analyses of the 3-year-old scene. Posted each Friday from Jan. 1 through the Belmont Stakes, Countdown keeps you apprised of the rising stars in the sophomore class from the maiden ranks to the Grade 1 stakes.

3 things you won't read anywhere else

Opinions are like a trip around the expansive Belmont Park oval. No matter how much time it may take, you're probably going to wind up right back where you started.

1. Thirteen years ago next week, jockey Rene Douglas rode atop the racing world by winning the 1996 Belmont Stakes on Editor's Note. After last weekend's horrendous spill at Arlington Park, Douglas now struggles with the potential of never walking again. Say a prayer for Rene this week, and consider making a contribution to the MacBeth fund for disabled riders. The fund offers a way-cool way to contribute, simply by booking your vacations through its travel agent.

2. If Calvin Borel were to get back aboard MINE THAT BIRD in the Belmont Stakes, he and agent Jerry Hissam should thank their lucky stars that the gelding is managed by a few good-ole-boys who still believe a man's handshake is all the contract you need. I can't think of a top stable in America that would not feel slighted for being "spun" and still offer Borel the mount back in appreciation for his Derby dynamics -- even if they felt it was their best chance to win.

3. For all the talk about Todd Pletcher's struggles in the Kentucky Derby, it might have slipped past you that the TAP stable has finished first (Rags to Riches, '07), second (Cowtown Cat, '06) and third (Ready's Echo, '08) in the last three editions of the Belmont Stakes.

This week's fearless forecast

This section typically takes a look at the major 3-year-old races of the coming weekend. But with a lull in the action until next week's Belmont Stakes, let's change things up a bit. This week we'll look at the Belmont contenders' career-best efforts and see how they stack up against one-another in a little theoretical game of "can-you-top-this." This exercise also will include whether or not I think the horse has more upside than shown or has perhaps peaked, helping to evaluate whether or not "bringing their A-game" will be sufficient in the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

1. MINE THAT BIRD, Kentucky Derby win: The Preakness validated his Derby score, but make no mistake the brilliance on display in Louisville puts him in another league than most any 3-year-old on the planet, active or on the disabled list. He may never again reproduce that stirring of a performance, but he may not have to. Something a few lengths short of that put him right on the wire in the Preakness and likely would be strong enough for the Belmont carnations, too. What I like about him moving forward is that he's not a cumbersome horse, and he's not very hard on himself when he gets over the ground. That spells a potentially long career for a gelding that could run out some serious bankroll if well-spotted.

2. RACHEL ALEXANDRA, Kentucky Oaks win: She showed tremendous guts in the Preakness and beat a much better cast without debate, but she was absolutely peaked on Oaks Day and ran one of the most brilliant races ever seen. Had she done it against a field of 18 challengers like the 'BIRD, carrying 126 pounds over 10 furlongs, I'd put that performance clearly on top of this list. Nevertheless, her Oaks romp rates a very, very close second. I doubt we will ever see her match those two races again, but her B-game trumps most horses' A-game. Physically she's leggy and athletic, so it will be interesting to see if she ever grows into a more robust filly that can continue to pound out the hits. Meanwhile, let's enjoy the heck out of her while we can.

3. DUNKIRK, Gulfstream allowance win: While he gets high marks for making a run at QUALITY ROAD in the Florida Derby, he actually regressed off his allowance win in that defeat. Those who watched him in his allowance race saw a horse on the brink of superstardom. The stretch run of the Florida Derby and subsequent, troubled flop in Louisville dampen that enthusiasm some; but on his best day, wow. He's capable of so much more if he can stay healthy, both in the immediate future and the long term. I'd love to see him pack on some more weight and hold up as a more sturdy contender for the nation's biggest stakes.

4. MR. HOT STUFF, Santa Anita maiden win: This massive colt may have put together the best stretch burst of any horse in any 3-year-old race in 2009 when he was lit afire late in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita. It was MINE THAT BIRD-Derby-like, but without the quality of competition, of course. He might be clueless as to putting it all together, but make no mistake if he ever does, somebody's getting steamrolled. Clearly he's capable of better than we saw in Louisville and I think he'll be a major Grade 1 or 2 winner before all the smoke settles.

5. CHARITABLE MAN, Peter Pan win: When HELLO BROADWAY zipped a stupid-fast opening half-mile in :44-4/5, this inexperienced colt could have been sucked into the vortex and wiped off the Triple Crown trail. Instead, he let the front-runner open up eight lengths, meaning he was going a more controlled, but quality-fast, :46-2/5 in pursuit. When you can run nine furlongs in 1:47, even around one turn, that says something. But I'm not sure how much better he can run, and he's one who may have a short ceiling even with the limited resume.

6. CHOCOLATE CANDY, Santa Anita Derby second: He's never been particularly overpowering, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a more consistently strong two-turn router in the class of 2009. He closed home fast behind PIONEEROF THE NILE in the Santa Anita Derby, but was unable to match that one at Churchill Downs with a more difficult trip of the two. Given his rest and respectable fifth-place performance in Louisville, there's plenty of reason to think that his best race is still ahead of him. He has Grade 1 quality about him.

7. SUMMER BIRD, Kentucky Derby sixth: This lightly raced colt is a steady-comer, but hardly a devastating closer. He always will be accountable to the early pace and quality of competition in front of him. But you cannot detract from his Kentucky Derby sixth, where he clearly ran the widest race of any horse in the field. With more ground-saving, he clearly would have outrun CHOCOLATE CANDY for fifth money and could have been on the tail end of that three-horse photo for the minor awards. His best days lie ahead, but he does not project to be a Grade 1 winner from this eye.

8. FLYING PRIVATE, Lane's End second: Despite running last in the Derby at 49-1, he went off just 24-1 in the Preakness when finishing fourth. That placing validated his solid run at Turfway back in April, where he showed that his steady-plugging style could put him in the mix in route races. But as was the case when the runner-up to HOLD ME BACK in the Lane's End, he always will be susceptible to a more-brilliant performer. You have to admire his toughness in making so many starts this year on short turnarounds, but the Lane's End appears about as good as he can be; he needs to catch the right field.

9. LUV GOV, Churchill Downs maiden win: Undeniably, the run he produced in an authoritative score on the Kentucky Derby day undercard was awfully good. But it came over a sloppy track and he's yet to reproduce anything close on fast going. Since his sire, Ten Most Wanted, developed later as a sophomore, there's plenty of reason to think this guy still can reach higher.

10. MINER'S ESCAPE, Federico Tesio win: This year's local Preakness prep came up historically weak, but give credit to Nick Zito's improving colt for scoring from the far outside post 8 and widening on his competition through the lane. While it took six tries to break his maiden, sire Mineshaft also was a late bloomer in life, so this colt likely can improve his stock to the lower graded-stakes ranks.

11. BRAVE VICTORY, Peter Pan third: Much farther back than usual, he picked up the pieces after HELLO BROADWAY ran off with his rider on the lead. Still no match for CHARITABLE MAN in a one-turn race going 9 furlongs, his pedigree gets highly questionable with more distance. I don't see him ever beating a Grade 1 or 2 route stakes field.

Everyone's a critic

This section recaps the week that was. Not a whole lot happened in the afternoon that needs to be dissected. The majority of discussion came during the a.m. drills of Belmont Stakes hopefuls.

RACHEL ALEXANDRA and MINE THAT BIRD both worked Memorial Day Monday at Churchill Downs, traveling over wet footing. RACHEL turned in a half-mile breeze in :50-1/5, while MINE THAT BIRD breezed the same distance in :51 flat. Calvin Borel was aboard the 'BIRD, while exercise rider DOMINICK TERRY worked RACHEL. Both are expected to work back this coming Monday at the Downs, with a final decision on the Belmont status of RACHEL ALEXANDRA still pending. As a handicapper, I would not read anything into the a.m. riding assignments nor the times in either case.

Also on Monday, CHOCOLATE CANDY turned in a 7-furlong drill at Belmont Park as the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee stopped the clock in 1:27-1/5. The 'CANDY man, who arrived at Belmont May 6, has now logged three local drills since finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby and bypassing the Preakness. Garrett Gomez will ride in the Preakness, a legitimate endorsement considering the presence of DUNKIRK in the Belmont field, a horse Gomez very much considered riding in the Kentucky Derby -- not to mention the potential open mount on MINE THAT BIRD.

Over the weekend, Saturday's Belmont workout tab was full of Triple Crown buzz as DUNKIRK, CHARITABLE MAN and SUMMER BIRD all went through important paces. DUNKIRK had the most serious business, drilling in company with stakes-class stablemate Munnings. DUNKIRK clocked five-eighths in 1:00-3/5, seventh-fastest of 23 at the distance, as Hall of Famer Angel Cordero Jr. called the shots.

CHARITABLE MAN, the G2 Peter Pan winner who figures to be a serious pace presence in the Belmont, sizzled a half-mile in :47-4/5, ranking second-fastest of 39 drills at the distance. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will be looking for his second Belmont in four years, upsetting the '06 show with Jazil. Meanwhile, Summer Bird stretched his legs seven furlongs in 1:26-2/5, finishing the final three-eights in a modest :37-4/5.

MR. HOT STUFF worked a bullet 5 furlongs Tuesday on the Keeneland Polytrack in 1:01 flat. While he finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track, 'STUFF has remained active with a trio of drills in the five-week gap between races. He's hoping for a Birdstone-like rebound, training up to a Belmont victory in 2004 after finishing eighth to Smarty Jones in Louisville. Countdown readers likely will remember that MR. HOT STUFF was my Kentucky Derby top selection, and certainly I'm upfront enough to admit when I whiff. Hey, I picked Louis Quatorze in the 1996 Kentucky Derby when he ran 16th, and then stuck with him two weeks later when he rebounded to rout the Preakness field. Stay tuned next week to see if history repeats itself in the selection department!

Now as for last week's brief afternoon doings, as mentioned countless times in Countdown this spring, GIANT OAK showed his best foot on turf when returning to the sod and winning Saturday's G3 Arlington Classic for trainer Chris Block. He showed a fantastic acceleration late despite a terribly slow pace, a kick that was decidedly flatter in his dirt efforts. GIANT OAK should be a bear in Arlington's summer grass series. Meanwhile, sprinter CHARLIE'S MOMENT won the 7-furlong Laz Barrera Memorial Sunday at Hollywood Park and could be part of the G2 Swaps brigade later this summer. But he has one way of going, fast, which likely will be difficult to translate to 1-1/8 miles.

Quick hitters

SUMMER BIRD will be ridden by Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux in the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Tim Ice originally contemplated Joe Talamo for the call, but said he opted for a rider more experienced on "Big Sandy" ... If you have not checked out the souped-up Belmontstakes.com Web site, do yourself a favor. Past videos and official charts are a handicapper's dream ... Correction: My mind went on vacation last week when writing that: "Only once since 1996 has a Triple Crown seen three different horses win all three jewels -- 2000, when Fusaichi Pegasus, Red Bullet and Commendable passed the trophies like batons." Countdown readers let me hear about it, rightfully so, and my apologies for somehow overlooking the 2006 and 2007 Crown seasons. Yeesh, the brain sometimes.

Jeremy Plonk has been an ESPN.com contributor since 2000. You can email Jeremy about Countdown to the Crown or anything racing-related at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.